It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_2B34diW5M
Here is a good in depth video of the Iowa predictions by QT politics

[Progressive Pessimist]

Think Sanders wins the initial first vote, with Biden winning the second final allocation.

Please no! Sanders supporters would flip a s***!

[Senator Spark]

Think Sanders wins the initial first vote, with Biden winning the second final allocation.

Please no! Sanders supporters would flip a s***!

I know. But most other candidates won't be meeting viability in all counties.

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m going to go with pure tossup.

[Epaminondas]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%

How does Buttigieg lose 4% between rounds? Do his caucus backers head home or something?

[Ronnie]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%

How does Buttigieg lose 4% between rounds? Do his caucus backers head home or something?

The oddest thing about his prediction is that Sanders is losing support, because if he's in the mid twenties overall, he's crossing the 15% threshold in almost every precinct.  It's highly likely his support goes up in round 2 after the supporters of candidates who failed to do so get reallocated to him.  Buttigieg losing a point or two could make sense if he's dipping below that threshold in a bunch of precincts and doesn't quite make up for it in others, but at 22%, it seems exceedingly likely he'd gain.

[ElectionsGuy]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%

That's not going to happen. There is no way Sanders and Buttigieg will lose support from the initial count if they're at viability in a good majority of precincts (which your numbers indicate they would be). In addition, your second round results would indicate that Joe Biden is almost everyone's 2nd choice, and we know that's not true. If Sanders is winning by 5 in the initial vote, he is pretty likely to win in reallocation even if he has less 2nd choicers.

[American2020]

I expect there'll be a close result, a draw between the two first.

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/PaigeGodden/status/1223643408016781317

Love this stuff. Iowans see many candidates and make minds up. just because you're getting big crowds doesnt mean its all support.

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1223637724579749888

click video doing campaign events in a brewary at 10am!

[😥]

Sanders 23%
Biden 20%
Klobuchar 17%
Warren 15%

[redjohn]

Welp, was hoping for the DMR poll to base final predictions on. Guess we have no real confidence going in! Tossup/tilt Sanders. Hoping for a strong win but expecting a very close race.

[ElectionsGuy]

Welp, was hoping for the DMR poll to base final predictions on. Guess we have no real confidence going in! Tossup/tilt Sanders. Hoping for a strong win but expecting a very close race.

NYT/Siena is probably the best next gold standard.

[Xing]

First round:

Sanders 25%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 10%

Second round

Sanders 28%
Biden 24%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 12%

Rating: Tilt Sanders

Really not confident about predicting this.

[Wells]

Final round prediction:

Sanders 30%
Biden 25%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 16%
Klobuchar 10%
Others 2%

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

First round:

Sanders 28%
Biden 26%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 11%

Second round

Biden: 34%
Sanders: 30%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 7%

Lean Biden

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Sanders 33
Klobuchar 19
Buttigieg 16
Biden 16
Warren 13
Uncommitted 3

How stupid are the people of Iowa.

[Cassandra]

I'm feeling lucky:

Sanders 32%
Biden 20%
Klobuchar 16%
Warren 12%
Buttigieg 9%
Yang 5%
Steyer 4%
Gabbard 2%
Others 1%

[EJ24]

Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Klobuchar 17%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 11%
Yang 3%
Steyer 3%

[KaiserDave]

Warren will beat out Pete


Sanders-24%
Biden-22%
Warren-17%
Buttigieg-15%
Klobuchar-13%
Yang-6%
Steyer-3%

[YE]

Biden 25
Sanders 24
Buttigieg 21
Warren 17
Klobuchar 10
Others 3

[Senator Spark]

Final Iowa Prediction:

Sanders 24%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 17%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 11%
Others 9%

[Shadows]

1st Poll -

Sanders 28%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 18%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 10%
Yang 6%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 1%
Others 1%

Final Delegate Allotment -

Sanders - 34%
Buttigieg - 24%
Biden - 24%
Warren - 12%
Klobuchar - 3%
Others - 3%

Sanders wins by double digits ! Biden does worse than expected due to poor ground game/Enthusiasm. Sanders does well in the 1st ballot due to high Youth turnout.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just checked through all the polls in 2016 and compared Sanders' performance. There has never been a state where going in Bernie had a lead in the polling average but failed to win. He over-performed in Iowa by 4 points in 2016. Sanders people should feel cautiously optimistic heading into Iowa. Final prediction coming later tonight after I see Emerson poll (mainly, I just want to see their trend from the previous poll).

[brucejoel99]

First round:
Sanders 26%
Biden 22%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Klobuchar 12%

Final round:
Biden 34%
Sanders 31%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 12%
Klobuchar 9%

Rating: Tilt Biden

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Sanders      31
Biden         26
Klobuchar   14
Warren      12
Buttigieg    12
Yang          2
Steyer        1
Gabbard     1
Unc.           1

Trump   91
Weld       6
Walsh     3