International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where does Germany stand? Despite the fact that some politicians have rejected a discussion on an "exit strategy" for the current restrictions, we're effectively in the middle of a debate on an exit strategy.

Based on various concurrent statements made by a number of leading politicians we can piece together where we are most likely headed. The current semi-curfew which bans public gatherings of more than two people - and in a few states of more than one, except for people you live with anyway -  is supposed to expire on April 5, but it is by now a foregone conclusion that it will be extended until April 19. A couple of states have already issues extensions to that effect and all the remaining state governments are expected to follow suit in the coming days.

Representatives of the federal government have also specified a benchmark for when these semi-curfews could be lifted: the total number of infections in Germany must double in a time period of no less than ten days. Depending on the source, we're roughly at a rate of six or seven days right now, which is already a progress from the two days doubling period we had a few weeks ago. Maybe we'll make it to benchmark until April 19, but it's not totally impossible that there could be a second (and most likely last, otherwise the economy collapses) extension until the first week of May.

As soon as these semi-curfews are lifted, it has already been hinted at by politicians how the adjacent phase is going to look like: old and sick people are supposed to remain at their home for the time being, while restrictions for the young and healthy would start to be lifted. However, there's an ongoing discussion on whether to make the wearing of face-masks mandatory in public from that point forward. The Bavarian government seems to be a strong supporter of such a measure, as are a few others. And even if it is not made legally binding, the practice will nevertheless be strongly encouraged in the future.

It is for that reason, that the federal government is currently in the process of coordinating the launch of a mass-scale domestic production of face-masks with the goal of approaching near-South Korean/Japanese capacities. Since this can hardly done over night, non-governmental initiatives are also encouraged to produce masks in larger quantities, in addition to instructions on how to produce masks in your own home being issued to the general population.

That's in a nutshell the scenario we're looking at.

A good news is that according to federal health minister Jens Spahn, about 45% of all ICUs in the country are currently not in use, so there's still capacity to spare (although it is expected that that the remaining ones will of course be filled up in the weeks to come when the number of seriously sick people have continued to grow).

[afleitch]

Worth reminding the lock downs are in place to stop overwhelming health systems. Later peaks can be better managed through a Korean style tracing system.

[brucejoel99]

The government is still determined to hold the presidential election in May, as scheluded, despite the majority of public opinion favoring a postponement. The opposition considers boycott if this goes ahead. Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Ryszard Terlecki actually threatened mayors who would refuse to organize voting precincts with dismissal and being replaced by government-appointed commissioners.

On the other hand Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin (of Solidarna Polska, one of PiS' satelite parties) broke the ranks and publicly favors postponing the election. PiS is on a hot spot here, because if he were to get sacked over this, they would likely lose their slender majority, so it's going to be interesting.

It's a no-win situation for PiS. If they postpone, they stand a good chance of losing a postponed election, with anger at misshandling the pandemic and recession fully hitting the electorate. If they go ahead with this, the opposition boycotts (I sure as hell am not going to vote under such scenario), Duda may be reelected with ridiculously low turnout, resulting in a massive political backlash, especially if people are going to die in result of going to the polls.

Holding the presidency is really a big deal for PiS. President is a largely powerless office, but Duda is useful as a rubber stamp for their legislative agenda. A President from the opposition could virtually stall PiS' agenda via veto power, to override which they simply have no votes.

What's the likelihood of it already having been decided that there'll be no election in May but that Duda wants to avoid the appearance of seeking to postpone the elections for fear of being called a "Putin" if he just came out right away & said "No elections right now"?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The government is still determined to hold the presidential election in May, as scheluded, despite the majority of public opinion favoring a postponement. The opposition considers boycott if this goes ahead. Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Ryszard Terlecki actually threatened mayors who would refuse to organize voting precincts with dismissal and being replaced by government-appointed commissioners.

On the other hand Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin (of Solidarna Polska, one of PiS' satelite parties) broke the ranks and publicly favors postponing the election. PiS is on a hot spot here, because if he were to get sacked over this, they would likely lose their slender majority, so it's going to be interesting.

It's a no-win situation for PiS. If they postpone, they stand a good chance of losing a postponed election, with anger at misshandling the pandemic and recession fully hitting the electorate. If they go ahead with this, the opposition boycotts (I sure as hell am not going to vote under such scenario), Duda may be reelected with ridiculously low turnout, resulting in a massive political backlash, especially if people are going to die in result of going to the polls.

Holding the presidency is really a big deal for PiS. President is a largely powerless office, but Duda is useful as a rubber stamp for their legislative agenda. A President from the opposition could virtually stall PiS' agenda via veto power, to override which they simply have no votes.

What's the likelihood of it already having been decided that there'll be no election in May but that Duda wants to avoid the appearance of seeking to postpone the elections for fear of being called a "Putin" if he just came out right away & said "No elections right now"?

Well, Kaczyński's been essentially "absent" now, and some people think it's so he can reappear and overrule his stupid drones by declaring the election must be postponed because of "public good". As of Duda, he'll say what he's told to say.

Wouldn't be surprised if they actually want to go through with this, though. We shall see.

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up today.

A continuation of trends previously monitored in the growth in "Active Cases" with Germany really flattening the curve over the last two days. Italy would appear to be past the the worst of it in terms of growth. Germany and Italy are appear to be slowing in line with expectation. Spain will be interesting to watch over the next week.



France and the USA have both experienced an uptick in growth. Despite the scale on the graph and the 3 day moving average reducing the visual effect, France had a 24% increase yesterday in 'Active Cases' which is significant. If France and USA continue to grow, the averaging will show a sharp increase in this line over the next 3-4 days.

Looking at 'Active Case' growth in countries where this pandemic is newly established:

1   55.6%   Martinique
2   42.3%   Argentina
3   42.2%   Cameroon
4   38.2%   Philippines
5   32.6%   Madagascar
6   29.5%   Russia
7   28.6%   French Guiana
8   26.7%   Algeria
9   26.1%   Turkey
10   25.3%   Brazil

These countries have a minimum of 50 'Active Cases' to make this list.

[Meclazine for Israel]

German Cruise ship refusing to leave Fremantle.

This is a crazy standoff with the Western Australian government.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-cruise-ship-artania-refusing-to-leave-fremantle-port/12110206

[T'Chenka]

First up today.

A continuation of trends previously monitored in the growth in "Active Cases" with Germany really flattening the curve over the last two days. Italy would appear to be past the the worst of it in terms of growth. Germany and Italy are appear to be slowing in line with expectation. Spain will be interesting to watch over the next week.

Just my opinion - whatever it's worth to you - but this graph here that you keep posting updates of as time goes on would be more interesting and possibly informative if it adjusted for population, for example using "daily growth in active cases of per million citizens" instead of "daily growth in active cases".

[Tender Branson]

10.192 cases today (8am).

+5.8% compared to yesterday 8am (lowest % increase ever).

The number of deaths is announced at 9:30 to 10am.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

- Only three people can be admitted to any store at one time (reasonable).

Maybe for small stores, but for a supermarket or big box stores, that's absurd.

[Tender Branson]

A new psychological study out of Austria shows that while old people are most likely to die because of the virus, the psychology of young people is most effected (old people are very relaxed about this issue):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116380572/corona-psyche-juengere-emotional-zerrissen-aeltere-entspannt

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another ""decent"" (so to speak) day for Italy, with "only" 4000 new cases like the day before. We'll see if this trend will continue today. Still plenty of deaths.

The government said the restrictions will continue at least until Easter, but the grumblings about beginning to reopen after Easter are growing louder (championed by business organizations and, of course, everyone's favorite little troublemaker Matteo Renzi). Reopening in just two weeks from now sounds... incredibly irresponsible to me, but we'll see. Hopefully the curve will flatten and begin to recede in the next few days.

[Beezer]

Austrians need to wear masks when grocery shopping, starting Wednesday.

Does it mean you guys have no problems with obtaining them?

Asking cuz we sure have.

Apparently, 10 million masks are coming via Malaysia tomorrow and will be distributed to every supermarket, where they will be handed out for „a small fee“ at the entrance.

Just what I want. Some random dude handing out masks who's probably touched god knows how many hands (and coins?).

I'm pretty sure they would have to wear gloves or something.

What good is a glove once the person handing out the masks has (inadvertently) touched their own nose or the hands of someone who might have the virus on the hands?

[CumbrianLefty]

Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

Lmao, that's practically impossible

And as I posted upthread, its not what was actually said.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

Lmao, that's practically impossible

And as I posted upthread, its not what was actually said.

In fact it was explicitly ruled out.

[Tender Branson]

Only +5% new cases here in the past 24 hours.

Good news.

The absolute daily increase is down to 508 new cases and the lowest in a week as well.

Deaths have increased by 18 cases to 146, the 4th percentage-wise decline in a row.

[President Johnson]

Germany has extended the conact ban instated at the beginning of last week to April 19. This has been agreed on after a telephone conference between Angela Merkel and the minister-presidents of the states.

That means the current lockdown will go over the Easter weekend. Probably we won't be able to visit parents (even though it's not prohibited to meet in private). Schools are scheduled to open on April 20, but it's likely this deadline will be extended as well. It really sucks.

[FrancoAgo]

Country with an odd ratio of serious cases and total active cases
data from worldometers, only countries with almost one thousand of active cases

too low, 1% or less
Mexico 1 on 1,151
Pakistan 12 on 1,997
Philippines 1 on 2,165
UK 163 on 26,987

too high, 10% or more
China 466 on 2,004
Iran 3,871 on 29,084
France 5,565 on 42,023

[SunSt0rm]

Top 15 Covid-19 Deaths per Country Visualized in a Timelapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9wvWqsXxec

Top 15 Covid-19 Cases per Country Visualized in a Timelapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzmezRPoYkc

[Tintrlvr]

Country with an odd ratio of serious cases and total active cases
data from worldometers, only countries with almost one thousand of active cases

too low, 1% or less
Mexico 1 on 1,151
Pakistan 12 on 1,997
Philippines 1 on 2,165
UK 163 on 26,987

too high, 10% or more
China 466 on 2,004
Iran 3,871 on 29,084
France 5,565 on 42,023

With China, maybe this is just that non-serious cases have mostly recovered while serious cases are lingering.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Growth in Corona-virus cases in all European countries plus USA continues.

Plotted on the same vertical scale, I will present the latest "Active Case" data per country which will include the growth rates for each country. At the end, the growth lines are separated off, and plotted together.



United Kingdom - Growth in Active Cases




France - Growth in Active Cases




Germany - Growth in Active Cases




Spain - Growth in Active Cases




Italy - Growth in Active Cases




USA - Growth in Active Cases




Growth in Active Cases

Clearly, some countries are starting to fade in terms of growth such as Italy and Germany. In terms of time, Spain should be next on the list to drop in growth based on previous countries.

The countries with growth lines pointing downwards, namely Italy and Germany, should be within 7-9 days of peak 'Active Cases'.

Germany has a downward kink in growth which may suggest a change in medical or social response.

The USA had a brief respite in growth 3 days ago, but has continued to accelerate sharply in growth with up to 23,000 new 'Active Cases' reported in the last 24 hours. The majority of that growth reported so far today was from New Jersey and Michigan.

In Australia, the CSIRO has begun testing on two vaccines for Corona-virus.

https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/CSIRO-begins-testing-Covid-19-vaccines

[Mike88]

Update on Portugal:

8,251 cases as of today, and 187 deaths. But, the numbers are creating some controversy:

During this week, Health officials were thinking of creating a sanitary cord around the Great Porto Area, around 1,2 million inhabitants, as the number of infected seemed to have double in just 24 hours. But, the count was badly done and wrongly health officials multiplied the Porto numbers twice, giving a higher number than reality. Several hospitals are also criticizing the big bureaucracy of registering new cases. The number of recoveries is also under big controversy as it has stabilized on a total of 43 for almost a week. This is because patients who have no more symptoms are not being retested due to the lack of tests.

[Lechasseur]

http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/coronavirus-le-gouvernement-envisage-un-deconfinement-regionalise-01-04-2020-8292291.php

The French government plans on coming up with a strategy in the coming weeks to let people out of confinement progressively, depending on testing, the number of people still in intensive care, the region they live in, their age and other criteria yet to be determined in all likelihood.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated Italy charts.

National totals:


National totals, log scale:


Deaths
ICU
Other Hospitalized
Isolated Home
Cured

Total cases by region per million inhabitants, log scale:


Deaths by region per million inhabitants, log scale:



The slowdown in new cases is now clearly visible, although we haven't quite reached the peak. The hospitalizations trend in particular is very encouraging (although there's the scary possibility that what's happening is people who need to be hospitalized aren't because of lack of available beds, but I haven't seen reports of that this past week). Still 700-900 deaths every day, which is a terrifyingly high number. Hopefully we should start seeing it decline as well soon.


The past 3 days have shown a significant slowdown, so let's see the growth rates by region. Main number is growth from 03/29 to 04/01 (parenthetical number 03/26 to 03/29).

Italy Total: 13.2% (21.2%)
Lombardy: 9.2% (17.5%)
Emilia-Romagna: 12.7% (21.3%)
Piemonte: 19.4% (24.6%)
Veneto: 15.2% (20.5%)
Other North: 16.6% (24.2%)
Center: 15.6% (23.5%)
South: 19.6% (33.5%)

Very good news especially out of Lombardy, which is definitely seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Also good to see the slowdown proceed at roughly the same pace in the Center and South, suggesting they won't see a repeat of what happened up North.

[Lechasseur]

509 people died of COVID-19 in France today, staying relatively stable compared to yesterday (499 deaths) and unlike the previous day's where there were 80 more deaths each day than the previous one.

Hopefully it starts to slow down in France.

[Tirnam]

The number of deaths in France will dramatically increased today as health authorities will released the estimated number of deaths in nursing homes. For example 570 people died in nursing homes from Covid-19 in the Grand Est region.

So far the only deaths counted are the deaths in hospital. Is it also the case in other countries? I know that it's also the case in the UK and I heard that it was the same in Spain too.