LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Calthrina950]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

He didn’t clear 50 in too many of those runoff polls against Rispone. Only had him at 48 or 49, which is a dangerous place to be for a purportedly popular incumbent Democrat  in the south.

I’m calling it Lean R.

All the majority of Louisiana's electorate cares about is the R after the politician's name. Edwards could be as popular as Baker or Hogan, and I tell you that he would still be struggling just as he is now. It's sad how fanatical so many voters have become.

[jaichind]

Downballot the Dems are all around the low 30s in terms of vote share.

[KaiserDave]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

[Mr. Smith]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

Is this a joke?

Where's the joke? JBE hasn't improved in any way since 10 PM EST. Polarization is quite the drug.

Trump is not going to hold multiple rallies in Louisiana over the next month. He actually has other stuff he needs to do (like golf and watch FOX and Friends.

Why not? He loves rallies.

Not that he needs more than one or two perfectly placed ones, one right on the weekend or Monday right before ought do the trick. I mean just look at Bevin's miraculous recovery!

[junior chįmp]

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

[Bidenworth2020]

Looking like the combined 2 party vote will be around 51-48 Rep/Dem. I think that since Republicans will consolidate very effectively and Trump will come quite a few times for Rispone, Tilt R seems appropriate.

[Calthrina950]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

[TWTown]

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Yeah, honestly that surprised me. Edwards took a lot of flak for his pro-life positions yet it doesn’t seem to have made a difference at all.

[Xing]

There's always a talking point (muh Kavanaugh, muh impeachment, etc.) Republicans can turn to to explain Republicans voting Republican even when the Democrat running is pro-life and decidedly to the right of most national Democrats (Republicans assure us that if only Democrats were "moderate" or "pro-life" they'd be winning in landslides.) The more logical explanation is that Republicans only care about the magic (R) and Trump. Not even abortion really matters; Edwards is pro-life.

It's also clearly not the case that "both sides do it." If that were true, Scott, Baker, and Hogan would have either lost or only won by narrow margins. Clearly Democrats are much more willing to give "moderate" Republicans a chance, even though the national Republican Party is anything but moderate.

[KaiserDave]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

Damn shame.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I think the runoff is toss-up/Tilt R at the moment. Though once Trump starts to visit LA again that will likely change to Lean R.

Changed my mine, It's Lean R now

[2016]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

[TWTown]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

[KaiserDave]

I think if JBE did veto the abortion bills he'd probably be noticeably lower 44-45ish. It may not help to be pro life in his position, but it does hurt to be pro choice.

[KaiserDave]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

I kinda agree, I do think people are overreacting. But it's 2019 now.

[IceSpear]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

This is gonna be a dumb, unprovable trope, isnt it?
Republicans turn out regardless.

I think two things can be true here:

1) JBE was not going to win in a megaultragigalandslide pre-impeachment, the vast majority of these Republicans were going to vote against him anyway.

2) Impeachment has galvanized the GOP base (see the early vote stats) and also helped them at the margins in a crimson red state.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Actually, strike that. I’ll go bold and say likely R for me. I’ll look like the Seer when all is said and done

[YE]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

That had unique circumstances with Vitter imploding that I wouldn’t expect to repeat here.

[Comrade Funk]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

Democrats (primarily white) like to feel enlightened so they vote for 'Moderate FF Republicans ' like Baker/Hogan in landslides.

Republicans are increasingly more tribal, getting their news from Hannity and Levin. Manchin (who underperformed the polls) and JBE are perhaps the last two left (if JBE even wins).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Runoff: Lean D ---> Likely R

[Calthrina950]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

The courage? Manchin only voted for Kavanaugh to save himself electorally. Had he voted against Kavanaugh, he would have lost.

[junior chįmp]

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Yeah, honestly that surprised me. Edwards took a lot of flak for his pro-life positions yet it doesn’t seem to have made a difference at all.

Because it doesnt matter in ANY election except for ardent activists who vote GOP anyway

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

The courage? Manchin only voted for Kavanaugh to save himself electorally. Had he voted against Kavanaugh, he would have lost.

If Trump had recorded a video message attacking Manchin and aired it in WV he would have lost. Trump did not effectively campaign for Morrisey, probably because the polls showed Manchin too far ahead and he had multiple candidates to stump for. That won't be problem for Rispone.

[Oryxslayer]

For reference, in the three polls we have with hypothetical runoff polling (in the last month) between JBE and Rispone, JBE gained 2%, 2%, and 7% without factoring in undecideds.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For reference, in the three polls we have with hypothetical runoff polling (in the last month) between JBE and Rispone, JBE gained 2%, 2%, and 7% without factoring in undecideds.

I can give you a clue how those undecideds will go