LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[UWS]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

No. The fact that it’s Louisiana is hurting the Dems here

[IceSpear]

On the bright side, at least those clowns Dantzler/Landrieu didn't act as spoilers. That would've really pissed me off.

On another bright side, at least Abraham's hilariously desperate gambit to expel Pelosi failed miserably.

[Oryxslayer]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

[Calthrina950]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

No. The fact that it’s Louisiana is hurting the Dems here

It could be both. Edwards already had very difficult odds, considering the state's partisan lean, but impeachment has galvanized Trump's supporters, which only makes things more difficult for him.

[Brittain33]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

Dems doing terribly in white rural areas didn’t start with the Ukraine phone call.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tilt R for the Runoff. JBE could make the electorate more democratic for the runoff, but I could not count on it.

[KaiserDave]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm not giving up on Edwards yet. The polls weren't horribly wrong here, maybe a tad bit too democratic but nothing major. Dems also historically perform better in LA runoffs, so adding Abraham and Rispones percentages together really doesn't mean much. Edwards only got 39% in the last jungle.

[Xing]

Looks like this will go to a run-off, but let's see what the final percentage is before declaring Rispone Governor-elect. While he'll obviously win the vast majority of Abraham's voters, I don't think he'll win 100% (even a small amount staying home could make a difference), and while Trump rallies could help Rispone, they're not going to get him an extra 5% of the vote.

[Comrade Funk]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

Yep. People need to face the reality rural whites in LA, WV, OK, OH, etc are NOT closet socialists (no sh**t). They're just not lol. Remember how Ojeda got BTFO in #populist WV-03? When you devote your day listening to Mark Levin, Hannity, and Laura Ingrahm, you're gonna develop a certain mindset.

Only makes Bernie's "poll" about winning West Virginia and Oklahoma more laughable.

[Cinemark]

Edwards needs about 55,000 votes to get to 50%. Probably not enought out there, but if he can get in the high 40s I'd say he has a decent chance in the run off.

[Oryxslayer]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

[walleye26]

Come on caddo let’s count why are you stuck at 31% in???

[IceSpear]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

Putting Louisiana aside, the fact that people genuinely, unironically thought this when Kentucky was on the board was utterly hilarious.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

He didn’t clear 50 in too many of those runoff polls against Rispone. Only had him at 48 or 49, which is a dangerous place to be for a purportedly popular incumbent Democrat  in the south.

I’m calling it Lean R.

[2016]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Still some outstanding precincts remaining in Caddo, Orleans, and EBR Parishes. 

[Zaybay]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

He didn’t clear 50 in too many of those runoff polls against Rispone. Only had him at 48 or 49, which is a dangerous place to be for a purportedly popular incumbent Democrat  in the south.

I’m calling it Lean R.

Pretty sure he cleared almost all of the runoff polls that have been done against Rispone.

[Cinemark]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

This is gonna be a dumb, unprovable trope, isnt it?
Republicans turn out regardless.

[Calthrina950]

I still think Edwards is favored in the runoff, but it's going to be a desperately close race. Polarization is dragging him down considerably, and could very well be his undoing. At this point, I'm thinking the chances of a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races this year are at 50-50. Republicans will take Kentucky and Mississippi with ease, and their chances in Louisiana are even. I view this race now as a Tossup.

[Brittain33]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

Again, Republicans have been crushing Democrats with rural voters consistently for over a year. Remember 2018?

[Skunk]

I'm not going to say that this is a Lean R race yet, but I'm not feeling confident about this one. Tossup/Tilt R.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

[Oryxslayer]

Still some outstanding precincts remaining in Caddo, Orleans, and EBR Parishes.  

Nearly all the precincts left are in urban Caddo, EBR, Orleans, Ascension, and Jefferson, with 10+ left strangely in each of Lincoln, Bienville, and Plaquemines. Which is why it's near certain JBE clears 47%.