IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[WD]

IA is probably seat 54 or 55 for Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Highly unlikely, and if she does Republicans will have lost the Senate loooong ago.

IA has gone Democratic for Prez, in 92, 96, 00, 08, 12 and Tom Harkin had Tenure until 2014, IA has voted Democratic in the past, it's still a purple state, it's a Tilt R state but it's not Alabama, that Rs make it out to be

[Politics Fan]

Probably only in a big Dem wave and I am not even convinced she would win if Biden narrowly carries the state. Though I don't think Iowa is as gone as some think. Trump only just got above 50% in the state in 2016 and Iowa is very inelastic and prone to wild swings historically that I wouldn't totally write off Dems chances here in the future though it appears to be a lean R state at least for now. 2020 will probably tell us a lot about the state if Reps take IA-1 and IA-3 and Trump wins by 54-45 while losing reelection or only winning narrowly than it's probably out of play for Ds except for a blue wave or a specific crisis hitting Iowa under a GOP government. However if Dems can hold all three Iowa house seats and have the state vote close to the national average it probably indicates the state isn't done being a swing state.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

The Castrating Fascist's days in power are numbered. Numbered to end January 3, 2021, to be exact.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably only in a big Dem wave and I am not even convinced she would win if Biden narrowly carries the state. Though I don't think Iowa is as gone as some think. Trump only just got above 50% in the state in 2016 and Iowa is very inelastic and prone to wild swings historically that I wouldn't totally write off Dems chances here in the future though it appears to be a lean R state at least for now. 2020 will probably tell us a lot about the state if Reps take IA-1 and IA-3 and Trump wins by 54-45 while losing reelection or only winning narrowly than it's probably out of play for Ds except for a blue wave or a specific crisis hitting Iowa under a GOP government. However if Dems can hold all three Iowa house seats and have the state vote close to the national average it probably indicates the state isn't done being a swing state.

If Trump and Ernst win IA narrowly while Republicans get blown out across the board nationally (i.e., [close to] double-digit PV win + [close to] 400+ EV win for Biden), that to me would certainly not indicate that Iowa isn’t done being a swing state.

I also don’t get the "lean R state at least for now" part. Do you seriously expect prospects to get more favorable for IA Democrats in the future? There’s a case to be made that Iowa will be the state where Democrats will suffer the most severe losses under a Biden presidency even if he’s not particularly unpopular. Even though I’m not yet ready to predict a massive GOP wave in 2022, I’m almost certain that any 3D/1R or 4D/0R House delegation in IA after this election will be very short-lived (to say nothing of the fact that the partisan composition of a state's congressional delegation is almost always a very poor predictor of said state's competitiveness in national/federal or statewide elections).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably only in a big Dem wave and I am not even convinced she would win if Biden narrowly carries the state. Though I don't think Iowa is as gone as some think. Trump only just got above 50% in the state in 2016 and Iowa is very inelastic and prone to wild swings historically that I wouldn't totally write off Dems chances here in the future though it appears to be a lean R state at least for now. 2020 will probably tell us a lot about the state if Reps take IA-1 and IA-3 and Trump wins by 54-45 while losing reelection or only winning narrowly than it's probably out of play for Ds except for a blue wave or a specific crisis hitting Iowa under a GOP government. However if Dems can hold all three Iowa house seats and have the state vote close to the national average it probably indicates the state isn't done being a swing state.

If Trump and Ernst win IA narrowly while Republicans get blown out across the board nationally (i.e., [close to] double-digit PV win + [close to] 400+ EV win for Biden), that to me would certainly not indicate that Iowa isn’t done being a swing state.

I also don’t get the "lean R state at least for now" part. Do you seriously expect prospects to get more favorable for IA Democrats in the future? There’s a case to be made that Iowa will be the state where Democrats will suffer the most severe losses under a Biden presidency even if he’s not particularly unpopular. Even though I’m not yet ready to predict a massive GOP wave in 2022, I’m almost certain that any 3D/1R or 4D/0R House delegation in IA after this election will be very short-lived (to say nothing of the fact that the partisan composition of a state's congressional delegation is almost always a very poor predictor of said state's competitiveness in national/federal or statewide elections).

You really forget that Tom Harkin was a Democratic senator and had tenure, IA and OH, yes are tilt R states, but they arent Alabama and have voted for every D prez except for Kennedy. The R trend of IA is overstated, just like OH, where Sherrod Brown and Tim Ryan continue to win statewide elections.

Dems will be competetive in OH, IA, FL, AZ, GA and NC, and Gary Johnson added 3 percent to the Trump vote anyways

[Xing]

It’s possible, but not particularly likely. Ernst is pretty fortunate that IA has trended so far right, si ce she’d definitely be in trouble in a state that’s a Toss-Up at the presidential level.

[Alben Barkley]

She cannot. Iowa is too far gone.

Says the guy who thinks COLORADO is LEAN D.

LOL does he really?

Colorado is as safe D as AR was safe R in 2010.

[Politics Fan]

Probably only in a big Dem wave and I am not even convinced she would win if Biden narrowly carries the state. Though I don't think Iowa is as gone as some think. Trump only just got above 50% in the state in 2016 and Iowa is very inelastic and prone to wild swings historically that I wouldn't totally write off Dems chances here in the future though it appears to be a lean R state at least for now. 2020 will probably tell us a lot about the state if Reps take IA-1 and IA-3 and Trump wins by 54-45 while losing reelection or only winning narrowly than it's probably out of play for Ds except for a blue wave or a specific crisis hitting Iowa under a GOP government. However if Dems can hold all three Iowa house seats and have the state vote close to the national average it probably indicates the state isn't done being a swing state.

If Trump and Ernst win IA narrowly while Republicans get blown out across the board nationally (i.e., [close to] double-digit PV win + [close to] 400+ EV win for Biden), that to me would certainly not indicate that Iowa isn’t done being a swing state.

I also don’t get the "lean R state at least for now" part. Do you seriously expect prospects to get more favorable for IA Democrats in the future? There’s a case to be made that Iowa will be the state where Democrats will suffer the most severe losses under a Biden presidency even if he’s not particularly unpopular. Even though I’m not yet ready to predict a massive GOP wave in 2022, I’m almost certain that any 3D/1R or 4D/0R House delegation in IA after this election will be very short-lived (to say nothing of the fact that the partisan composition of a state's congressional delegation is almost always a very poor predictor of said state's competitiveness in national/federal or statewide elections).

I agree in the case of Iowa being competitive in a Biden blowout that would hardly mean it is still a swing state. I was referring more to a situation where the state doesn't deviate significantly from the national average this year in which case imo it would be fair to still consider Iowa a swing state.

I'm not a big believer in over reacting to one election. While I think it would be foolish to write off results in one election as a fluke it's hardly a good idea to assume that any one election can be predictive for a states partisan trajectory. To use 2008 as a guide NC/VA and IN all were historically Republican states at the time that voted Dem for the first time in decades.

Virginia trended hard Dem and has since become a pretty rock solid Dem state
North Carolina has since become a swing state but has had it's D trend restrained somewhat
Indiana has reverted back to being safe R.

I'm not trying to say I don't think IA won't become a red state just that one can't come to that conclusion without more evidence. Keep in mind that Obama won the state twice along with the fact Iowa has been prong to dramatic and somewhat unpredictable swings in the past that we can't see it remaining competitive for Dems in the future.

While Trumps margin of around 10% was impressive him getting just 51% was hardly impressive. I agree that the demographics look good for Republicans in the future though I do think Democrats have a solid base in the state with Polk/Johnson/Linn and Story counties which at least help provide a path to victory for Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s possible, but not particularly likely. Ernst is pretty fortunate that IA has trended so far right, si ce she’d definitely be in trouble in a state that’s a Toss-Up at the presidential level.

Xing has the same map as MT Treasurer believing Ernst and Collins will win and Collins is down by 9 points and hasnt lead in a single poll. Tom Harkin was Senator from IA for a long time, and IA just became R in 2014, Vilsack, Culver were D govs before Branstad.  IA is Tilt R but it's not Alabama

[windjammer]

Highly unlikely, and if she does Republicans will have lost the Senate loooong ago.

You are absolutely correct but I guess if Biden wins the presidency by 10 points, he can carry Iowa and then Greenfield win this senate seat.

But of course, Iowa should not be considered as a swing state anymore.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1270350160829218816

Not vouching for the polling as I have no idea if it's good- but backs up the politico article showing dems are starting to get interested.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Highly unlikely, and if she does Republicans will have lost the Senate loooong ago.

You are absolutely correct but I guess if Biden wins the presidency by 10 points, he can carry Iowa and then Greenfield win this senate seat.

But of course, Iowa should not be considered as a swing state anymore.

Yeah and Tom Harkin likes to say hi, he served over 10 yrs in the Senate, the seat that Joni Ernst is holding

[S019]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

[2016]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

The Iowa Poll will almost certainly rebuke all those crappy Polls from PPP and their leftist cohorts!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

The Iowa Poll will almost certainly rebuke all those crappy Polls from PPP and their leftist cohorts!

You hope

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

The Iowa Poll will almost certainly rebuke all those crappy Polls from PPP and their leftist cohorts!

Yeah right, Trump is behind by 11 pts in natl polls

[Xing]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

This is definitely a poll to pay attention to. I’d imagine Ernst will be ahead in this poll, but the margin will be important to watch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

This is definitely a poll to pay attention to. I’d imagine Ernst will be ahead in this poll, but the margin will be important to watch.

Ernst is at 37/43 approvals, she is vulnerable

[S019]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

This is definitely a poll to pay attention to. I’d imagine Ernst will be ahead in this poll, but the margin will be important to watch.

Ernst is at 37/43 approvals, she is vulnerable

We'll see, Selzer's poll is much more likelier than PPP or Civiqs to give us an accurate picture of this race, and Ernst will probably be leading, if she isn't leading in this poll, then that's cause for major alarm for Republicans, as they really cannot afford to lose this seat otherwise they are having an awful night.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst and Collins arent unbeatable they are below 45% a danger zone for an incumbent

[S019]

Ernst and Collins arent unbeatable they are below 45% a danger zone for an incumbent

This isn't the Maine Senate thread, Collins' chances are irrelevant in this thread. Anyways, again we'll see with tomorrow's poll, which is considered among the highest quality pollsters in Iowa. But of course, neither race is Safe R, but isn't hard to argue that both Ernst and Collins are favored, which seems true at the current moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want to break the MTTreasurer belief that ME and IA are Safe R, he believes that, but it's good that Betsy Sweet is ahead by 9 pts of Collins in a D internal and Ernst is behind by 3, Collins isn't favored

[S019]

I want to break the MTTreasurer belief that ME and IA are Safe R, he believes that, but it's good that Betsy Sweet is ahead by 9 pts of Collins in a D internal and Ernst is behind by 3, Collins isn't favored

MTTreasurer has much more credibility on elections than you, and Ernst and Collins are both favored, at the moment. Will that change? Who knows, we'll have to wait and see...

[S019]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/13/iowa-poll-theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-tight-senate-race/5346215002/, the DMR poll shows Greenfield leading. This race really wasn't supposed to be competitive at the beginning of the cycle, and if this flips, Republicans have already lost their Senate majority. Also willing to take the bold step to move this to tossup.