IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Fetterman was a small town mayor running as an anti-establishment candidate. There was no way in hell DSCC would endorse him. What would really would have helped him would be a Sanders endorsement, which never came despite the fact that Fetterman actively sought it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Fetterman was a small town mayor running as an anti-establishment candidate. There was no way in hell DSCC would endorse him. What would really would have helped him would be a Sanders endorsement, which never came despite the fact that Fetterman actively sought it.

If they were confident he was the Democrats' best shot but were worried an endorsement would hurt his brand, they still could have avoided endorsing his opponent.

[Not Me, Us]

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Fetterman was a small town mayor running as an anti-establishment candidate. There was no way in hell DSCC would endorse him. What would really would have helped him would be a Sanders endorsement, which never came despite the fact that Fetterman actively sought it.

Now that he's LG, he should have a much easier time with establishment support. He and Wolf have a very good relationship.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If you weigh the poll by party ID Ernst is up by 4-5 points or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, GA, KS, ME, MI, MT, NH, and NC Dems are focused on. Dems werent gonna get more than 52 or 53 seats

[Lechasseur]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

With his profile and appearance, I don't doubt it. Greenfield strikes me as a weak nominee overall.

Agreed.

I think Franken could well be the person who beats Ernst.

I think Greenfield would have a much harder time doing that.

Ernst is by no means unbeatable, but the Democrats have to run the best candidate they can against her in order to take the seat imo.

[Upstater]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

[LabourJersey]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

[Upstater]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

Do you think the signature forging could be used against her in the General Election?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa doesn't have the African American or Latino base line OH and other states have, so Dems can afford to lose it and not every state will go D, even in a wave

[EastAnglianLefty]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

Do you think the signature forging could be used against her in the General Election?

It seems unlikely. She was the one who brought the issue of the forgeries to light and immediately fired the individual responsible, so it's hard to see how she could be blamed for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

Do you think the signature forging could be used against her in the General Election?

It seems unlikely. She was the one who brought the issue of the forgeries to light and immediately fired the individual responsible, so it's hard to see how she could be blamed for it.

I guess that's good. One less potential liability in GE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have been undecided about this race, Dems shouldnt waste all their time dispatching Ernst, they need to focus on Collins

[Non Swing Voter]

I have been undecided about this race, Dems shouldnt waste all their time dispatching Ernst, they need to focus on Collins

Collins is probably going to lose already and there's only so much money you can pour into a tiny state like Maine.  They should definitely try to take out Ernst.  People like her are the exact problem.  Iowa voters aren't ultra right wing but she acts like an atrocious partisan hack with no backbone.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

F@ck Teresa Sh!tfield, go Franken!

[QAnonKelly]

I'm under no illusions about Ernst losing but I really think this is going to be the sleeper race of the cycle

[Landslide Lyndon]

Mauro released an internal poll by RABA Research which shows him tied with Ernst at 42% apiece.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/senate-race-polll-iowa-eddie-mauro-theresa-greenfield-michael-franken-joni-ernst-20200514

Also:

Specifically, the pollster asked about Greenfield’s U.S. House bid in 2018. She failed to get on the ballot because her campaign manager was charged with felony election misconduct. Voters also were asked whether general election voters might have a problem supporting Michael Franken, who has voted in Iowa only twice in 30 years and has a million-dollar home in Virginia.

In both cases, more than half of those polled said that information gave them doubts.

In Greenfield’s case, 44 percent had “serious doubts” and 23 percent had “some doubts.”

On the question of Franken’s residency, the results were 68 percent “serious” and 10 percent “some” doubts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mauro released an internal poll by RABA Research which shows him tied with Ernst at 42% apiece.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/senate-race-polll-iowa-eddie-mauro-theresa-greenfield-michael-franken-joni-ernst-20200514

Also:

Specifically, the pollster asked about Greenfield’s U.S. House bid in 2018. She failed to get on the ballot because her campaign manager was charged with felony election misconduct. Voters also were asked whether general election voters might have a problem supporting Michael Franken, who has voted in Iowa only twice in 30 years and has a million-dollar home in Virginia.

In both cases, more than half of those polled said that information gave them doubts.

In Greenfield’s case, 44 percent had “serious doubts” and 23 percent had “some doubts.”

On the question of Franken’s residency, the results were 68 percent “serious” and 10 percent “some” doubts.

I've put this in the polls section, but this is effectively concern trolling by Mauro. His campaign tactics seem to have been alienating, including a weak online effort to brand himself as "the true progressive" through a few reddit accounts despite probably having a worse claim to this than anyone else in the field.

Franken is the only one with a chance of beating Greenfield.

[SnowLabrador]

Mauro released an internal poll by RABA Research which shows him tied with Ernst at 42% apiece.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/senate-race-polll-iowa-eddie-mauro-theresa-greenfield-michael-franken-joni-ernst-20200514

Also:

Specifically, the pollster asked about Greenfield’s U.S. House bid in 2018. She failed to get on the ballot because her campaign manager was charged with felony election misconduct. Voters also were asked whether general election voters might have a problem supporting Michael Franken, who has voted in Iowa only twice in 30 years and has a million-dollar home in Virginia.

In both cases, more than half of those polled said that information gave them doubts.

In Greenfield’s case, 44 percent had “serious doubts” and 23 percent had “some doubts.”

On the question of Franken’s residency, the results were 68 percent “serious” and 10 percent “some” doubts.

I've put this in the polls section, but this is effectively concern trolling by Mauro. His campaign tactics seem to have been alienating, including a weak online effort to brand himself as "the true progressive" through a few reddit accounts despite probably having a worse claim to this than anyone else in the field.

Franken is the only one with a chance of beating Greenfield.

And Greenfield is the only one with a chance of beating Ernst.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm under no illusions about Ernst losing but I really think this is going to be the sleeper race of the cycle

Not sure how a race which has gotten a ton of attention and is considered competitive/rated Lean R by every political observer could be considered a "sleeper race"? Especially more so than, say, Alaska (which is rated Safe R by most observers)?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm under no illusions about Ernst losing but I really think this is going to be the sleeper race of the cycle

Not sure how a race which has gotten a ton of attention and is considered competitive/rated Lean R by every political observer could be considered a "sleeper race"? Especially more so than, say, Alaska (which is rated Safe R by most observers)?

I assume they were arguing it would be an Atlas sleeper race.

[Politician]

Atlas absolutely considers Iowa Safe/Likely R for President and Senate lmao. People get mocked for suggesting otherwise

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas absolutely considers Iowa Safe/Likely R for President and Senate lmao. People get mocked for suggesting otherwise

Weird, that’s not what I have gathered from the compiled prediction map or the majority of responses to IA polls/threads/etc. Apparently we’re dealing with different Atlases here. Or maybe everyone just perceives Atlas differently? Or loves loves to mock the Atlas they want to see? Or maybe uniformity doesn’t actually exist on this Atlas?

Well technically it’s Talk Elections not Atlas

[Lechasseur]

Mauro released an internal poll by RABA Research which shows him tied with Ernst at 42% apiece.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/senate-race-polll-iowa-eddie-mauro-theresa-greenfield-michael-franken-joni-ernst-20200514

Also:

Specifically, the pollster asked about Greenfield’s U.S. House bid in 2018. She failed to get on the ballot because her campaign manager was charged with felony election misconduct. Voters also were asked whether general election voters might have a problem supporting Michael Franken, who has voted in Iowa only twice in 30 years and has a million-dollar home in Virginia.

In both cases, more than half of those polled said that information gave them doubts.

In Greenfield’s case, 44 percent had “serious doubts” and 23 percent had “some doubts.”

On the question of Franken’s residency, the results were 68 percent “serious” and 10 percent “some” doubts.

I've put this in the polls section, but this is effectively concern trolling by Mauro. His campaign tactics seem to have been alienating, including a weak online effort to brand himself as "the true progressive" through a few reddit accounts despite probably having a worse claim to this than anyone else in the field.

Franken is the only one with a chance of beating Greenfield.

And Greenfield is the only one with a chance of beating Ernst.

Franken strikes me as having the better shot at beating Ernst tbh

[QAnonKelly]

I'm under no illusions about Ernst losing but I really think this is going to be the sleeper race of the cycle

Not sure how a race which has gotten a ton of attention and is considered competitive/rated Lean R by every political observer could be considered a "sleeper race"? Especially more so than, say, Alaska (which is rated Safe R by most observers)?

I assume they were arguing it would be an Atlas sleeper race.

I was