IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1262489571918561284

Graham is probably miffed.

[wbrocks67]

It would appear Ernst has a real election on her hands.

https://twitter.com/libmeyer/status/1263191008847765509

[LastMcGovernite]

Joni Ernest is German for "one-term senator." 

Seriously, though, I can't make sense of this race; it could very well be competitive and it could very well be a 10-pt victory for the incumbent.

[SnowLabrador]

Joni Ernest is German for "one-term senator." 

Seriously, though, I can't make sense of this race; it could very well be competitive and it could very well be a 10-pt victory for the incumbent.

Same, which is why I find this race so fascinating. There are so many ways it could go.

[Pollster]

I was on a call with the DSCC around February 2019 and was astonished when they said they considered Ernst the second-most vulnerable Republican. It's beginning to look like they were on to something, and I can't particularly figure out why.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats have always been wayyy more bullish on Iowa and Maine than I would have expected. It’s certainly interesting, but I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Republicans can’t take IA for granted, but there’s no way it will be the tipping-point state in the Senate, and if the DSCC actually considered Ernst more vulnerable than Martha McSally in 2019, they had (have) no idea what they’re doing.

[Brittain33]

Democrats have always been wayyy more bullish on Iowa and Maine than I would have expected. It’s certainly interesting, but I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Republicans can’t take IA for granted, but there’s no way it will be the tipping-point state in the Senate, and if the DSCC actually considered Ernst more vulnerable than Martha McSally in 2019, they had (have) no idea what they’re doing.

Maybe they didn’t consider McSally a true incumbent because of her history.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats have always been wayyy more bullish on Iowa and Maine than I would have expected. It’s certainly interesting, but I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Republicans can’t take IA for granted, but there’s no way it will be the tipping-point state in the Senate, and if the DSCC actually considered Ernst more vulnerable than Martha McSally in 2019, they had (have) no idea what they’re doing.

Maybe they didn’t consider McSally a true incumbent because of her history.

Color me skeptical. Even if they did, why would Ernst be more vulnerable than Thom Tillis?

This obsession with IA reminds me of the Republicans' fixation on WI in 2017, when they seriously considered Baldwin more vulnerable than Tester and Manchin lmao.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats have always been wayyy more bullish on Iowa and Maine than I would have expected. It’s certainly interesting, but I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Republicans can’t take IA for granted, but there’s no way it will be the tipping-point state in the Senate, and if the DSCC actually considered Ernst more vulnerable than Martha McSally in 2019, they had (have) no idea what they’re doing.

Maybe they didn’t consider McSally a true incumbent because of her history.

Color me skeptical. Even if they did, why would Ernst be more vulnerable than Thom Tillis?

This obsession with IA reminds me of the Republicans' fixation on WI in 2017, when they seriously considered Baldwin more vulnerable than Tester and Manchin lmao.

You tend to underestimate the fact that Dems are competetive in IA 4 and have incumbents in 1, 2, 3. Ds dont need to win NC, but need IA and Tillis and Ernst are both leading by 1

[Xing]

Ernst definitely isn’t more vulnerable than Tillis (or Collins, Perdue or Daines, for that matter), but given that IA isn’t a very expensive state to spend in, it doesn’t hurt for Democrats to buy a few lottery tickets there. I just wish they were also spending in other “longshot” races as well. Unless Ernst falls quite a bit behind in the polls (more than 3-4%), I’ll continue to see her as favored, though I doubt she significantly overperforms Trump, and it’s possible she could narrowly underperform him, depending on how things play out.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/24/democrats-iowa-senate-ernst-greenfield-275141

Politico has an excellent profile of the Democratic Primary up.

Among the the things the article notes are that Iowa Democrats are frustrated that the primary seems "foreordained", and that Republicans have been training their fire exclusively on Greenfield.

Greenfield will face Retired Vice Admiral Michael Franken, Businessman/Teacher Eddie Mauro and child welfare Attorney Kimberly Graham in the primary on June 2.

Is a primary upset possible, and if so, who is best positioned to pull off the upset.

In addition, other than Greenfield, who the DSCC has already endorsed, who would be strongest candidate for Democrats to face Ernst in the General Election?

[Pollster]

Mauro's hyper-negative campaign goes against everything we know about the preferences of Iowa Democrats. I suspect he doesn't have many native Iowans or seasoned Iowa strategists running his campaign.

Franken probably has the best shot at an upset, but Greenfield still probably wins rather easily.

[henster]

Franken is getting the Joe Sestak treatment, even getting attacked by EMILY's List. Just hope Greenfield doesn't end up as another McGinty, but both have similar profiles.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Franken is getting the Joe Sestak treatment, even getting attacked by EMILY's List. Just hope Greenfield doesn't end up as another McGinty, but both have similar profiles.

It's not a wholly fair comparison, as PA was a lot more winnable to begin with.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Franken is getting the Joe Sestak treatment, even getting attacked by EMILY's List. Just hope Greenfield doesn't end up as another McGinty, but both have similar profiles.

It's not a wholly fair comparison, as PA was a lot more winnable to begin with.

And Greenfield is running against another woman.

[Brittain33]

The X factor in this race is Trump’s hatred of women which many of his followers share. If Ernst says or does one thing Trump doesn’t like, he’ll write her off like Jeff Sessions and she’ll be swimming against the current.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The X factor in this race is Trump’s hatred of women which many of his followers share. If Ernst says or does one thing Trump doesn’t like, he’ll write her off like Jeff Sessions and she’ll be swimming against the current.

She no longer has a primary opponent.

Trump got on the Roy Moore train when Strange was out of the way. He'd support Sessions if the only other realistic choice was Doug Jones. He is actively sabotaging Susan Collins, but that's only because she continuously claims to be moderating his brand.

[Brittain33]

The X factor in this race is Trump’s hatred of women which many of his followers share. If Ernst says or does one thing Trump doesn’t like, he’ll write her off like Jeff Sessions and she’ll be swimming against the current.

She no longer has a primary opponent.

Trump got on the Roy Moore train when Strange was out of the way. He'd support Sessions if the only other realistic choice was Doug Jones. He is actively sabotaging Susan Collins, but that's only because she continuously claims to be moderating his brand.

Oh, I wasn’t think of a primary challenge. I imagine him making dismissive comments about her, calling her ungrateful, talking about how she came to him “like a dog” in tears, begging him for his help to win her race. A segment of the country led by Trump likes to see strong women humbled.

[eax]

Ernst is definitely the favorite, but I think Greenfield has a real chance here.

[We Live in Black and White]

She can, but I still view it as highly unlikely at this point. We'll see what shapes up how.

[SnowLabrador]

She cannot. Iowa is too far gone.

[We Live in Black and White]

She cannot. Iowa is too far gone.

Says the guy who thinks COLORADO is LEAN D.

[indietraveler]

I'm still highly skeptical but less so now given polling (and not just today's) showing Ernst not being as popular as she once was.

This is still Ernst's to lose at this point. Likely R but much closer to lean than safe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Eh maybe a 10% chance but Trump is lilely to win IA, and Ernst is no longer the rising star she once was, but she isn't an offensive senators like Collins or McSally.

[MT Treasurer]

Highly unlikely, and if she does Republicans will have lost the Senate loooong ago.