🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

With the end of the pre-negotiations in MV, Manuela Schwesig just announced that she will go into formal coalition negotiations with Die Linke. SPD and Linke (then PDS) had governed the state until 2006, ever since there has been a Grand Coalition.

[President Johnson]

With the end of the pre-negotiations in MV, Manuela Schwesig just announced that she will go into formal coalition negotiations with Die Linke. SPD and Linke (then PDS) had governed the state until 2006, ever since there has been a Grand Coalition.

I think the Bundesrat may have played a role in that decision as well since each state government with CDU participation could be an obstracle for a potential trafficlight coalition. Die Linke as junior partner in this Schwesig government would be easier to handle for a federal government that is led by Olaf Scholz.

[Astatine]

With the end of the pre-negotiations in MV, Manuela Schwesig just announced that she will go into formal coalition negotiations with Die Linke. SPD and Linke (then PDS) had governed the state until 2006, ever since there has been a Grand Coalition.

I think the Bundesrat may have played a role in that decision as well since each state government with CDU participation could be an obstracle for a potential trafficlight coalition. Die Linke as junior partner in this Schwesig government would be easier to handle for a federal government that is led by Olaf Scholz.

Possibly. There are three other factors I'd assume also played a role in Schwesig choosing Die Linke over CDU:
1.) CDU is a bit stronger than Die Linke, which means they might have gotten one more cabinet position - The weaker the junior partner is, the more Social Democratic policies can Schwesig implement.
2.) While Die Linke at least is somewhat organized after their miserable result, the CDU is headless. CDU M-V leader Sack just resigned from all statewide roles, the party is being led by a former senior MP on an interim basis until November or so, the new parliamentary leader is a no-name politician while Die Linke unanimously re-elected their top candidate to her role as parliamentary leader.
3.) I guess when there is a chance to avoid a GroKo (which shouldn't be standard), she'd take it. I can see why Red-Red was considered too unstable after the last elections (1 seat majority), but if there is a chance to opt for something else than SPD/CDU, that coalition should be given the first shot (tbh reasonable). A traffic light coalition with two partners, who are both new to Parliament, might have gotten somewhat difficult to manage.

[Astatine]

Berlin will get a continuation of R2G in all likelihood as Franziska Giffey has announced she'll continue having coalition talks with Linke and Greens.

Meanwhile, the now resigned Head of Board of Elections of Berlin will participate in a complaint against results in 2 districts, which were so close that the severe problems in the whole election process in some precincts (lacking ballots, long waiting times, wrong ballots) might have flipped those seats, being relevant for seat distribution. If the lawsuit is successful, those 2 districts will have special elections.

[President Johnson]

Berlin will get a continuation of R2G in all likelihood as Franziska Giffey has announced she'll continue having coalition talks with Linke and Greens.

Meanwhile, the now resigned Head of Board of Elections of Berlin will participate in a complaint against results in 2 districts, which were so close that the severe problems in the whole election process in some precincts (lacking ballots, long waiting times, wrong ballots) might have flipped those seats, being relevant for seat distribution. If the lawsuit is successful, those 2 districts will have special elections.

Meh, that's certainly a result of pressure from the base. I was hoping for a trafficlight coalition here as well. Giffey prefered that as well, I believe. But at least she'll be governing mayor either way. She's definitely one of the best SPD politicians despite the plagarism issue.

[President Johnson]

After being sworn in as member of the Bundestag today, Armin Laschet has officially resigned as Minister-President of NRW since the state constitution doesn't permit him to serve in both roles at the same time. His deputy Joachim Stamp (FDP) has taken over as acting head of government.

Traffic Minister Hendrick Wüst (CDU) is scheduled to take over the role tomorrow. Something to watch here: The CDU-FDP government only as a one seat majority in the Landtag (100 of 199 seats). So there's absolutely no margin of error. And if successfully elected, Wüst immediately has to run for reelection since the next state election will take place in May.

Another fun fact: Outgoing Governing Mayor of Berlin Michael Müller (SPD) was also sworn in as Bundestag member today, but can remain in his role until a new government is formed (expected for December). Unlike the case in NRW, the Berlin state constitution has no such provision that prevents a governing mayor from being in the Bundestag. However, the outgoing Berlin state cabinet is just a caretaker government at this point.

[Astatine]

After being sworn in as member of the Bundestag today, Armin Laschet has officially resigned as Minister-President of NRW since the state constitution doesn't permit him to serve in both roles at the same time. His deputy Joachim Stamp (FDP) has taken over as acting head of government.

Traffic Minister Hendrick Wüst (CDU) is scheduled to take over the role tomorrow. Something to watch here: The CDU-FDP government only as a one seat majority in the Landtag (100 of 199 seats). So there's absolutely no margin of error. And if successfully elected, Wüst immediately has to run for reelection since the next state election will take place in May.

Another fun fact: Outgoing Governing Mayor of Berlin Michael Müller (SPD) was also sworn in as Bundestag member today, but can remain in his role until a new government is formed (expected for December). Unlike the case in NRW, the Berlin state constitution has no such provision that prevents a governing mayor from being in the Bundestag. However, the outgoing Berlin state cabinet is just a caretaker government at this point.

The NRW Constitution is quite strict when it comes to who can be Minister-President - Hendrik Wüst got the position because any alternative candidates aren't Landtag members right now.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Traffic Minister Hendrick Wüst (CDU) is scheduled to take over the role tomorrow. Something to watch here: The CDU-FDP government only as a one seat majority in the Landtag (100 of 199 seats). So there's absolutely no margin of error. And if successfully elected, Wüst immediately has to run for reelection since the next state election will take place in May.

The ballot will take place today. In which round of voting do you think will Wüst be elected? Or can we even expect a surprise today? Bear in mind that he black-yellow NRW state government has been ruling with a one-vote majority.

Another fun fact: Outgoing Governing Mayor of Berlin Michael Müller (SPD) was also sworn in as Bundestag member today, but can remain in his role until a new government is formed (expected for December). Unlike the case in NRW, the Berlin state constitution has no such provision that prevents a governing mayor from being in the Bundestag. However, the outgoing Berlin state cabinet is just a caretaker government at this point.

It's even a bit mire complicated: Müller can be a member of the Bundestag, but not of the Bundesrat, as one isn't eligible to be a representative of both chambers at the same time. That doesn't pose a problem, however, as any member of a state government can be delegated to the Bundesrat.

[Astatine]

Wüst has been elected with 103 to 90 out of 197 votes (4 invalid/abstentions, 2 not present). I guess the three votes for Wüst came from the AfD dissidents who left the party in 2017 - the most prominent ex-AfD Landtag member, Marcus Pretzell (husband of former AfD leader Frauke Petry), has stated his support for black-yellow politics in general several times on Twitter.

[President Johnson]

Somehow I thought this might end up as a Heide Simonis 2005 situation, where at least one member of the coalition refuses to vote for the Minister-President in multiple secret ballots. Only a snap election could have resolved the issue then and the SPD currently has momentum in state polling.

[President Johnson]

It's early and many recent state elections have shown a dramatic shift towards the incumbent, but a new Schleswig-Holstein poll shows potential trouble for Daniel Günther (CDU), who wants to be reelected in spring next year.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1452987903785713671

[Astatine]

Wahlkreisprognose is still a dubious pollster that should not be paid attention to. Their district estimates - allegedly based on polling people - had a wrong call rate of 17 %, which is terrible for district estimators (and a lot of the correct predictions were the safe CSU seats in Bavaria). I guess even my prediction was better, iirc?

Their methodology is also highly intransparent and their clear pro-SPD bias does not really help them being perceived as a legit pollster: https://katapult-mv.de/artikel/faelscht-die-spd-mv-den-diskurs-mit-eigenem-umfrageinstitut

I don't buy anything published by this "pollster" (same with Civey).

[Astatine]

In Saarland, where the state legislature is up for election in March, the Linke parliamentary group expelled the Deputy President of the legislature, Barbara Spaniol. Oskar Lafontaine (who is not running again, at least for Die Linke) does not trust her as she seemed to be allying with his intra-party rival, state party leader Thomas Lutze. Lutze and Lafontaine deeply despise each other and have had a fight for years.

Spaniol might still make it into the state legislature, as she was elected to the top of the Neunkirchen multi-member constituency list just yesterday - If the numbers for Die Linke don't crash and burn in the elections considering the party's desolate state. Spaniol is rumored to be a contender to become lead candidate.

The parliamentary group has lost 2 members (formerly 7) during this term (in 2018, another legislator left the group voluntarily because she was at odds with Lafontaine), and in fact, the 2 defectors could form an own group in theory. Unlikely that this will happen though, it would be extremely bad optics.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Lafontaine, Ulrich... maybe, from a left-wing oerspective,the Saarland, this geopolitical quirk of the 20th century should just be dissolved

[Astatine]

Lafontaine, Ulrich... maybe, from a left-wing oerspective,the Saarland, this geopolitical quirk of the 20th century should just be dissolved

This election is surely gonna be entertaining. Some Green members (low profile though) and environmental activists left the party to form an own group called "BUNT Saar" (Colorful Saar), but it lacks any high profile members so far. Besides, the ÖDP has somewhat strong personalities here, MEP Manuela Ripa and former MEP Jorgo Chatzimarkakis.

Lafontaine has not formally ruled out running with an own list (yet?), from the statements I have seen he has just excluded to run for Die Linke again.

And Hubert Ulrich, who is one key figures responsible for the Green Party going down in flames here and the main reason why their list for the federal elections got invalidated, has been reelected chairman of his local party. Later this month, the new party leadership will be elected, and as lists are elected state- and multi-member constituency-wide, this might not have been the last chapter of political drama for the Saar Greens.

Anke Rehlinger should make Oskar Lafontaine and Hubert Ulrich honorary members of the SPD for their contributions to the Social Democrats' electoral success.

[Astatine]

MV government coalition talks are close to end and went over quite swiftly, meaning the next cabinet will be up for a confirmation soon.

Meanwhile, the Saarland split of Linke has actually resulted in two parliamentary groups, meaning now there will the People's Front of Judea and the Judean People's Fron... ehhh Linke and Linke-Saar groups in Landtag sitting next to each other until March. Fun!
Tobias Hans was nominated as CDU candidate for the March elections, Anke Rehlinger for the SPD. Rehlinger had run in 2017 already trying to beat AKK but failed, and got rewarded with... the position as deputy leader of the SPD that she wants to keep too.

[Astatine]

Schwesig has been re-elected as Minister-President of MV, she received 41 out of 79 votes (3 abstentions, 35 votes against), meaning that at least 2 members of the coalition majority (43/79) voted against her. Nothing too uncommon, and nothing I'd call a "bumpy" start. Out of the 8 ministries, Linke gets 2 cabinet positions.

[Astatine]

First somewhat decent Saarland poll (Infratest) in one year with some surprising results (comparison to 2017):

Voting intention:

CDU: 28 % (-12.7)
SPD: 33 % (+3.4)
Linke: 6 % (-6.8)
AfD: 9 % (+2.9)
Greens: 8 % (+4.0)
FDP: 8 % (+4.7)

Preferred Minister-President:
Rehlinger (SPD): 42 %
Hans (CDU): 39 % (inc.)

Preferred leading party in government:
SPD: 46 %
CDU: 29 %

Government satisfaction:
Satisfied: 54 % (-15)
Dissatisfied: 44 % (+13)

Possible coalitions:
- SPD+CDU: incumbent government, just with switched leadership, most likely outcome
- SPD+FDP+Greens: seems a bit unlikely considering the current state of the Greens (not even accounting for the fact that the FDP is full of no-names here)
- SPD+Linke+Greens: in theory the closest match, but again, the Greens are the unstable factor (the Linke less so, since their leadership fight has been decided more or less - against Lafontaine, but the final battle will be the 5 % threshold)

I wouldn't count out the CDU yet, they have proven they can win in spite of polling showing otherwise - even with top candidates with similar approvals - in 2012 and 2017 respectively.

[President Johnson]

Government formation in Berlin is finished. Franziska Giffey has been elected Governing Mayor by the legislature, making her the first woman to hold the position. Her SPD-Greens-Left cabinet is actually majority female.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1473290135496130560

[Astatine]

Government formation in Berlin is finished. Franziska Giffey has been elected Governing Mayor by the legislature, making her the first woman to hold the position. Her SPD-Greens-Left cabinet is actually majority female.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1473290135496130560

Although the position was not called "Governing Mayor" back then, Berlin had a woman as mayor before, although only on an acting basis: Louise Schroeder, who was interim Head Mayor (Oberbürgermeister can't be translated well) from 1947 until 1948.

[Astatine]

After the Greens were permitted to run in the federal election last year, the AfD might experience the same fate in this year's state elections. The nomination convention for the AfD list in the multi-member constituency of Saarbrücken was declared unlawful by a court, as the convention was summoned by the state chairboard (whose election was invalidated last year) and because non-members of the party voted in the convention. The lawsuit was filed by AfD members - Just as Linke and Greens, the AfD here is utterly divided into two rivaling camps that only communicate to each other through their lawyers. The filing deadline for lists is in 7 days.

It's not a sure thing yet, but this means the AfD is likely to be ineligible to run in Saarbrücken, in which 1/3 of the eligible population in Saarland lives. The lists in the other two constituencies are not affected, but not being on the ballot in Saarbrücken is a major blow for the party. Taking the five percent threshold could become an uphill battle.

[Astatine]

The AfD fights have completely escalated, and some major developments have happened since:

The list for Saarbrücken was eventually elected in an emergency session, with Josef Dörr (83) as list leader. This move was not uncontroversial and apparently, both lists have been submitted to the state electoral committee, which means that the AfD will either run with their list that was declared unlawful by a state court (appeal pending), a list elected in a last minute convention with a controversial grandpa who was deemed too extreme for the federal party as leader (potentially unlawful too, since the deadlines for the convention were too short) or no list at all in Saarbrücken. The last option would be the worst the party as this would mean the party would need to win enough votes in the other 2 multi-member constituencies to reach the 5 % threshold.

But it's not over yet: Just shortly after the filing deadline for list nominations, it was revealed that the state chairboard retracted the initial state list to sabotage the statewide Spitzenkandidat. This would not matter as much, as a constituency list decides where a party runs and not the statewide list. The party would still get its fair share of seats if it meets the threshold, the members would just be elected from the constituency lists instead.
But in case the AfD enters the Landtag, it might very well end up with non-members as their Landtag representation. The federal leadership sacked the state chairboard to install an emergency chairboard - This has happened before in this chaotic state party (in 2016, the state party was completely dissolved for Dörr's contact to far-right extremists and in 2020, Dörr was sacked for violating party rules). Now, the federal chairboard seeks to expel to the (now former) state chairboard members who withdrew the list from the party (including Dörr's son), but some of them are still on the respective constituency lists. Meanwhile, 5 of 7 county chairmen (including Dörr's son) released a statement where they accused Dörr and the initial Spitzenkandidat of damaging the party, including saying "it's better to have no parliamentary representation at all than being a second-hand embarrassment for the next 5 years".

So, why is Saarland such a hot mess in general, since Greens and Linke suffer from similar problems (FDP too some years ago when their infightings ruined the party completely), while top CDU and SPD officials regularly ascend to higher positions (see Maas, Lafontaine, Altmaier, AKK, Klimmt...)? A lot has to do with personal issues. Everyone knows everyone over 2 corners, and personal rivalries often derail smaller parties in functioning normally. Meanwhile, CDU and SPD have fertile ground in a state with high union membership, strong Catholic tradition, general high local/community retail work and lots of "soft" corruption (yes, party membership/loyalty indeed can get still get one a job in smaller townships).

Btw, Josef Dörr was an active Green Party member before: He was member of the county council for the Greens until 2009 and was a personal rival of Hubert Ulrich, the guy whose dubious background and shady style of doing politics (nickname: "The Tank") resulted in the Greens not participating in a federal election for the first time ever.

Update: While the state list was dismissed indeed, the constituency list with Dörr as top candidate was approved, meaning the AfD is eligible in all constituencies.

[Astatine]

The election is in less than 50 days, time to cover the major issues:

Covid & Health
Covid is obviously a hot button issue going into the election, and Saarland has had a quite successful vaccination campaign (82.1 % with at least one dose, second highest rate in Germany). The statewide 2G rules (recovered or vaccinated) for shopping were ruled unlawful by a court, and generally spoken, restrictions are relatively loose.
Our Minister-President Tobias Hans has the reputation to copy anything that the King of Bavaria, Markus I., is doing: Hans backed a vaccine mandate when Söder did, and now that Söder seems to switch sides again, Hans is following. He also received some criticism to nominate a Covid-skeptic who walked in anti-vaccine demonstrations to his shadow cabinet, although she retracted her nomination shortly after.
While CDU's position on restrictions is extremely ambiguous now, SPD is generally more hesitant with reopening the state, as well as the Greens. The FDP is favoring a reduction of restrictions, while AfD is against any at all. Linke's position is not really clear - Especially the dethrowned Lafontaine wing is against restrictions, while the rest of the state party differs on that.

Economy & Transport
"It's the economy, stupid!" Indeed. The Saar economy is struggling in general, after the transition from a steel & coal country to a more diversified industry, the problems in the car manufacturing industries and what's left of the once glorious steel industry leave Saarland with an uncertain future. Ford and ZF are two main employers, but it seems like they might leave Saarland behind due to their struggles. The steel companies of Saarstahl and Dillinger also have issues, and the outgoing governmental term saw the closure of steel manufacturers with 250 years of history.
The SPD top candidate Anke Rehlinger is Minister for Economy and Transport, and voters seem to trust her to manage that policy area well. Rehlinger successfully managed to bring a battery manufacturer to Saarland (SVolt) and oversaw the implentation of an ambitious traffic plan that includes the expansion of the tram-train system and public transport in general as well as the creation of a whole new S-Bahn train commuter system.
Of course, all parties are more or less behind the steel industry, although it's clear that their struggle will not really improve in the next years. This makes Saarland very infertile territory for the Greens, whose criticism of SVolt didn't really improve their chances of re-entering the state legislature.

Education
Education is usually an important issue in state elections, but this time, not so much. The CDU now favors repealing the G8 system (Gymnasium/high school of 8 years, opposed to formely 9 years/G9), something that they implemented in government roughly 2 decades ago. SPD, Greens and Linke are open to that, while the FDP wants to the schools to opt between G8 and G9.

Environment & Energy
Low priority issue for many. FDP and Linke support more restrictions on construction of wind turbines, CDU is relatively silent and SPD, but especially Greens oppose that. Beyond, everyone wants more decentralized and renewable energy (apart from the AfD). Most parties would also like to see France's Cattenom nuclear power plant shut down (with the Linke state party chairman favoring freezing diplomatic relations until they do so), but this won't happen by any chance.

Besides, the big question is who will become next Minister-President. With Hans and Rehlinger, CDU and SPD both have popular top candidates who might have ambitions to advance their careers on nationwide level (just as their respective predecessors AKK and Heiko Maas). Rehlinger seemed to have the edge in most recent polling, but it wouldn't be the first time polls underestimate the popularity of our CDU Minister-Presidents.

[Astatine]

New Saarland poll dropped!

Voting intention (comparison to last poll):
CDU: 29 % (+1)
SPD: 38 % (+5)
Linke: 5 % (-1)
AfD: 8 % (-1)
Greens: 6 % (-2)
FDP: 6 % (-2)

Preferred Minister-President:
Rehlinger (SPD): 49 % (+7)
Hans (CDU, inc.): 34 % (-5)

Preferred leading party in government:
SPD: 49 % (+3)
CDU: 27 % (-2)

Government satisfaction:
Satisfied: 49 % (-5)
Dissatisfied: 49 % (+5)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke above 5 %:

CDU: 17 (-7)
SPD: 22 (+5)
Linke: 2 (-5)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke below 5 %:

CDU: 18 (-6)
SPD: 23 (+6)
Linke: 0 (-7)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

[DL]

New Saarland poll dropped!

Voting intention (comparison to last poll):
CDU: 29 % (+1)
SPD: 38 % (+5)
Linke: 5 % (-1)
AfD: 8 % (-1)
Greens: 6 % (-2)
FDP: 6 % (-2)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke above 5 %:

CDU: 17 (-7)
SPD: 22 (+5)
Linke: 2 (-5)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

Seat allocation (compared to 2017) - Linke below 5 %:

CDU: 18 (-6)
SPD: 23 (+6)
Linke: 0 (-7)
AfD: 4 (+1)
Greens: 3 (+3)
FDP: 3 (+3)

With either of these results what is more likely? An SPD led grand coalition or an SPD led Red/green or traffick light coalition?