Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[IceSpear]

The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.

Pretty sure that's been said about every Maricopa batch lately, and yet they never end up being pro-McSally.

[MichaelRbn]

I wonder how Krazy Kat, Ignatz Mouse and Offisa Pup all voted in Coconino County.

[Virginiá]

The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.

Pretty sure that's been said about every Maricopa batch lately, and yet they never end up being pro-McSally.

Meanwhile, at McSally's campaign HQ:

[Orser67]

At this point, I'm wondering if Sinema will end up with >50% of the vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many Coconino votes were just tabulated

~1300

Sinema lead now at 30,310.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

At least in Arizona's case: for mail ballots they have to match the signatures on every one of hundreds of thousands of ballots, which is a huge undertaking.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061682911555043328

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

[Virginiá]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

Technically the legislature can assign the EVs any way they want. They just can't force presidential candidates to compete in a runoff election or anything like that. So I don't think IRV counts towards this restriction because the votes are already cast by election day. It's just tallying them up that may take longer.

I think IRV would apply to the presidential race.


Edit: Actually I guess states can force runoffs for presidential races? Seems to be the case, in theory (source)

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.

Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As a general principle, there's nothing stopping a state from adopting RCV to select presidential electors.  But Maine's specific initiative excludes presidential elections.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.

Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though?

IDK how GA runoff dates have or haven't changed since 1968, but a modern EV runoff would have to be held in December. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Virginiá]

As a general principle, there's nothing stopping a state from adopting RCV to select presidential electors.  But Maine's specific initiative excludes presidential elections.

Uniformity really needs to be pushed for this. Thanks for the MA SC, it is overly convoluted now. Primaries, federal elections but not presidential. Pffft.

[adma]

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

That seems unlikely to me because, without gerrymandering, they already would have been much closer to a majority after 2016.

Unless we go by the hypothetical of all the states "doing a Pennsylvania" at once post-2016.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061723843906027520

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061723843906027520

Sinema +106

It is now Sinema +30,416

Hopefully we get a call tonight.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061725477046493185

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

Dems can get back to 51/49 should Nelson and Espy win, most likely 52/48

Yes but they lost a handful of senate seats so naturally that is all that matters and the election was a NIGHTMARE

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When will LA update their numbers today? I want to watch Young Kim go down.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When will LA update their numbers today? I want to watch Young Kim go down.

Next update from LA county is on Tuesday.

[Horus]

So how many races are still uncalled?

NY-22
ME-2
UT-4
GA-7
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45

Missing any?

[wbrocks67]

NJ-3 is still oddly uncalled.