Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Landslide Lyndon]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Yep, for better or worse that's the trade that Democrats had to do.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.

[Virginiá]

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Theoretically, we'd get Scalia's seat, I could see Ginsburg and Breyer retiring, and Kennedy is iffy but maybe he does after the 2018 elections, so we could definitely lock down a lasting 5-4 majority if we had the Senate, and depending on what Kennedy does, maybe a 6 - 3 one.

However at that point, if Republicans amassed huge Congressional power post-2020, you'd have to seriously consider that they would pack the court. They have done it at the state level, and recently tried to do it in North Carolina. This is on top of all their other attacks on the judiciary, including impeaching justices they want to replace for partisan reasons. With 60+ Senate votes, it's very easy to see them doing that. Such a scheme might even include the Federalist Society's plan to add hundreds of new federal judges. As far as I am concerned, the only reason they haven't done this at the federal level is because they lacked the power and urgency to do it. A long-lasting 5 - 4 or worse, 6 - 3 liberal majority all but ensures the urgency part. Their base would be foaming at the mouth for it.

So I think if the only reason for wanting Clinton to win knowing the losses that await is a Supreme Court majority, one has to really weigh the risk of Republicans packing the judiciary from top to bottom.

[pppolitics]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.

Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved?

If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying.

If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry.

[pppolitics]

Navajo made another drop apparently.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061395581052960769

[MillennialModerate]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

[Zaybay]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.

Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved?

If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying.

If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry.

Or maybe she isn't winning at all. If Sinema is +15 in an evenly split batch then she would be up by "just" 5 in a R+10 sample.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Navajo made another drop apparently.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061395581052960769

Another underperfomance by McSally.

Sinema +18,363

[Zaybay]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1061397025508323328

[Gass3268]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061393280322232321
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061394151265198083

[pppolitics]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A.

Bucket A (297,104 ballots) is actually bigger than Bucket B (195,296 ballots)

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061399842306449408

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061399842306449408

Sinema up 24K!!

She also just crossed 1mill in the count.

[Gass3268]

The Republican is only up 6,203 in the SoS race now.

[henster]

Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.

[Politician]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A.

He's a Republihack, what do you expect?

[MillennialModerate]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

It’s a Lean R state and the Republicans are winning every other statewide race.

Sinema is favored but it’s no sure thing

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.

Umm the Maricopa drop tonight is from Sinema's congressional district.

[Virginiá]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

It’s a Lean R state and the Republicans are winning every other statewide race.

Sinema is favored but it’s no sure thing

Republicans have basically lost the Superintendent of Public Instruction and could very well lose the Secretary of State's office too.

Sinema has all but wrapped up this race.

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.