Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garcia gets blown out

[Hammy]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

The way the Senate played out entered embarrassment territory hours ago. This is just downright humiliating at this point.

[IceSpear]

Damn, that NC gerrymander was absolutely brutal. Even McCready probably won't break through.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McBath has taken the lead.

I want to believe.

I'm not joking

[Roronoa D. Law]

Are Dems winning AZ congressional ballot?

[gf20202]

McBath has taken the lead.

I want to believe.

I see Handel up by 57. Was there really a moment where McBath was up?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garcia like Valdez, gave the GOP their Senate victory. AZ hasn't elected a statewide Dem, since Diconcini

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

No use cribbing Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for Cal !

There is very much use cribbing about the Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for CA, if you want to ever accomplish anything else whatsoever.

If you don't fix that issue, you will never do anything else.

The first step to solving any problem is to correctly identify what the problem is. The problem is fundamental and is precisely that the Dakotas have 4 seats vs 2 for CA.

In the United States Senate, each person in Wyoming is 69 times more important than each person in California.

[Storr]

Garcia like Valdez, gave the GOP their Senate victory. AZ hasn't elected a statewide Dem, since Diconcini

This is incredibly premature.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK.

There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McBath has taken the lead.

I want to believe.

I see Handel up by 57. Was there really a moment where McBath was up?

151,340-131,283 for Handel is probably the count you are seeing. But CNN now has it at 153,192-152,203 for McBath.

[boske94]

Will Hurd won after correction of tabulation error. Dana Rohrabacher on the ropes (trailing 2K with 90 % in).

[gf20202]

The AZ Data Guru @Garrett_Archer:
Maricopa incoming

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

From twitter



So functionally the GOP retains the House too

Get ready for those Medicare/SS cuts. 

[Gass3268]

People shouldn't really be commenting on the California races. There are still millions of votes that will take past Thanksgiving to count.

[Ben.]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

[gf20202]

In the AZ Race, Vaughn Hillyard of MSNBC says there are 350k early ballots that must be counted/verified that aren't going to be in the count tonight.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lucy McBath is leading according to CNN now.

[lfromnj]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

[AndyHogan14]

There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK.

There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful.

Wouldn't we then need a majority in the Senate to get these temporary states admitted? Quite frankly, I do not see that happening any time soon...no way Democrats are picking up 5 seats in 2020. 2-3 was possible, 5? No way.

In the end, I'd be on board so long as California (a state that would be temporarily split up, I'm sure) is guaranteed to be reunified once the scheme is over.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County.

[President Johnson]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

[Gass3268]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

[IceSpear]

Sherrod Brown won by about the same margin as he did in 2012. I really want to see the swing map.