Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Atlas in roughly 15 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/Pc6zVtG.gif

You've got it all wrong:



In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

My shirt got wet

FF. Thank you for your sacrifice.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Good Night !

Good night! I hope you awake to good exit polls!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW.

Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin

1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up.

In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states.

Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans).

I am pretty sure Ohio doesn't have party registration, so that shouldn't be a factor here (but certainly is in many other states, e.g. Arizona).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

Sumter = The Villages

Collier = Naples

A lot of olds in both places, so at least to some degree that should probably be expected, unless it is way higher than in 2014/2016.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down.

Hispanic share of the NV Early Vote in TargetSmart data is up from 5.98% in 2014 to 9.78% in 2018. It is true that there is natural population increase, but that is a much larger increase in NV than can be explained just by pure demographic change. It is a reflection both of how terrible turnout was in 2014, and also that it is much better now.

Whereas in the Ohio EV, there is a much smaller increase in Hispanic vote share, more in line with natural population growth (just a small fraction of a %, like .2% or something).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour.

But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.

And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Rachel Maddow could barely control herself in the opening minutes of the 2016 coverage either.

And the early exit polls were good for Dems in 2016. Just not the results. Point is that the mood of talking heads is an indicator of the exits (but not necessarily the results, since exit polls can be and often have been off).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

What is the swing from 2014/2016 though?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am cautiously optimistic (really pretty optimistic, but I am saying cautious just because of 2016 trauma) about the Trump approval early exits. We should also remember that while they could overestimate Dems, they could also underestimate them. And if they do, we could have a really huge wave. OTOH I think if they underestimate, it will probably still be enough to take the House.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MSNBC says in exit poll the white vote share is same as 2008.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Missouri is 50 Approve, 49 Disapprove says MSNBC exits

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Florida ---  51 Approve 48 disapprove of Trump in early exits.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MSNBC also said the approval was close in GA, and that Abrams was doing better among Trump Disapprove than Kemp was doing among Trump approve, but I didn't catch the exact #s.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Trump approval, GA: 47/51 (-4)

MSNBC says Abrams is winning a larger share of disapproves than Kemp is winning approves...

That is 47 approve, 51 disapprove? If so, amazing great for Abrams. I hope it holds up....... If it does she could be on course to win without a runoff, which would be amazing.