Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Good news for Braun from the reports I've seen. Monitoring Wisconsin turnout on Twitter as well, but no real forecasts either way.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

Sounds like solid numbers for the GOP, and the day isn't over yet. I wonder what 2016/2104 numbers were at this point of the day.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

Yeah, hard to spin that in the Dems' favour unless non-whites tend to vote later in the day.  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW.

McGrath wins, and Donnelly is a one-termer.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can I get Horfoid's take on Democrats currently leading in all 4 Iowa seats?

Counting bias in King's district. I shouldn't have to explain that. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hearing talk about Steve King losing, but CNN has him up 8? What?

Yeah, I don't get it either. The NYT tracker has him ahead now after trailing all night.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm signing off. I haven't said much in this thread overall, but I'm just exhausted. Even though this hasn't been the worst election ever, it is clear that this country is polarized beyond the point of repair and rationality. I can't really find it in me to enjoy the several surprise victories that the Democrats have had. I will say that perhaps the one most most worth celebrating, that made the happiest was seeing Laura Kelly win in Kansas. We'll never have to deal with Kobach again...hopefully.

But I just wanted an overall clear win. Sure, I expected some losses here and there, I always thought DeWine would win-so we aren't getting President or Vice President Sherrod Brown (has DeWine finally held every elected office in Ohio?). But my malaise is mostly due to the Senate results, some Gubernatorial results, and f***ing Florida in general of course. I tried to have reasonable expectations and simultaneously those expectations were too bullish with my Senate and Gubernatorial predictions and too bearish with my House predictions, at the same time. I thought the Democrats would lose Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota but I can't believe that we're going to see an even bigger drubbing. I wouldn't be surprised if Heller and McSally win at this point. Yet I also can't believe that the Democrats won an Oklahoma House race. I'm feeling very conflicted and confused overall. I think I need to take a break from politics, in spite of how ubiquitous it is, for the sake of my mental health. I'm having minor 2016 flashbacks. This election is like learning that a beloved family member has cancer, but when that family member succumbs to it, you will inherit property in their will. That's a bit dark...but so is this country's political landscape. American voters didn't learn after 2010, 2014, and 2016, and most likely they aren't going to learn now either.

I am actually even more worried for the future as we're seeing that Trumpism is here to stay as those are the Republicans that have survived much like in 2016. Even if it won't be noticeable in every corner of this "great" country the GOP is destined to remain an ethno-nationalist, white grievance, fear-based party. Even with this new Democratic House there is a negative caveat. They will most likely become an effective scapegoat for the President and his all-powerful cabal. I am actually more secure in predicting that he gets re-elected than I was prior if this election is any indication, even with its silver linings.

I don't know...somehow things make even less sense than they did on November 8, 2016. I said back then that I would never trust a poll ever again, and clearly that self-imposed advice didn't stick. 

I am bracing myself for the inevitable Trump-GOP gloating over our inflated expectations, once more, even though they didn't have a particularly great night either.  It's going to be intolerable. They're allowed to have mixed results and spin them as a win, but we can't. Watching CNN tonight was like listening to a demotivational audiotape. They declared the blue wave dead because Amy McGrath lost. That was one hell of a way to confirm my suspicions about how the media is going to help set the narrative about tonight's results. So I guess what we're seeing at best has been a blue splash. Yay?

Yeah, basically. There's no spinning tonight as anything but a huge letdown.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Evers still up with 87% in according to CNN. CNN seems to have forgotten about this one as well.

89% down by about 1,200. “Machine Problems” in New Berlin so likely Republican funny business going on again.

Word on a ad is Walker is now slightly up.

Manitowoc still half out, too. Looks like Walker is in the driver seat for now.   

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

From twitter



So functionally the GOP retains the House too

Get ready for those Medicare/SS cuts. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This aged well.