Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Thatkat04]

Apparently 61,000 more votes left from Sinema friendly Pima county.

[Ebsy]

How many votes are there left in Broward?

Nobody really knows, including Clerk Snipes.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

[KingSweden]

Rick Scott just spoke from the steps of the Governor's mansion, accusing liberal activists and Hillary Clinton's lawyers of trying to steal the election from him. Appeared to be covered in sweat.

Sounds like somebody has found some horcruxes

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060704220624629760

[TheSaint250]

According to Broward's website, they have finished counting VBM, but Florida Election Watch hasn't confirmed.

According to Broward's website, 712,840 ballots were cast, and only 682,073 are in for Senate.

Honestly, I don't know if either of these things means anything because it wouldn't surprise me if Broward couldn't even manage its own website.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

I think Josh Harder is absolutely more likely to win than Denham. It's close, and the rest of the ballots favor Harder. That said, I haven't paid as close attention there as in the Southern California districts.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true.

Yeah, although FL definitely didn't vote to the left of Wisconsin, like everyone was saying it would.

FL demographic destiny = old whites as well...

[InheritTheWind]

This is almost definitely wishful thinking, but Rick Scott is not acting like someone who indeed won this race.

[Tintrlvr]

How many votes are there left in Broward?

Someone thought earlier tonight that the earlies were done and there were less than 10k absentees left. If so, it would be bad news, means Nelson would need to hope the undervotes were a machine issue that gets fixed in the hand recount (which will happen regardless as a matter of law now). But I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere outside of Atlas.

[Jeppe]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

[IceSpear]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes.

When I typed this, I thought the Kim +3 was just from Orange County, and the other 2K were from LA.

That still may be the case as far as I know, seems like it has not been confirmed properly which numbers are right, because CA-39 spans 3 different counties which all report separately.

[henster]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

[Oryxslayer]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes.

I wasn't the 2k guy lol. I'm just going out on a limb to defend him because he said he got them from the SOS not OC BOE, so there is a universe where Kim netted 3 from OC, but lost LA big. That's how it played out on eday.

[libertpaulian]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

So, it's likely Sinema ekes it out?

[7,052,770]

Scott is currently giving a press conference about voting discrepancies in Palm Beach and Broward... I’ve only seen a couple minutes, but he said that Nelson is trying to “steal the election from the people of Florida” and made sure to mention that he is utilizing “Hillary Clinton’s lawyers.” Despicable!

Definitely sounds like someone who knows he's going to lose and wants to forever taint his opponent's victory.

Republicans will never accept Nelson's win now, if the votes do go his way.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

[Thatkat04]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

So, it's likely Sinema ekes it out?

It looks better for her, yeah.  (Insert usual platitudes about it ain't over until all the votes are counted.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way.

Yeah, I think McSally wins it but Sinema keeps the lead since she won a sizable chunk of the Republican vote.

[Thatkat04]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way.

Well, if it makes anybody feel better, the initial results of Maricopa were tied with what I assume was a similar party id.

[MillennialModerate]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.