🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Despite the exit polls being closer than we thought, make no mistake that this is an emphatic rejection of the CDU/CSU by the electorate, and a good result for the SPD.

Absolutely, though all depends now on FDP and Greens. And we have to see whether the gap between first and second continues to grow.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.

As much fun as it is to have entertaining politics, I guess it is better that politics not be entertaining.

[Logical]

One of the most ridiculous thing about following Bundestag elections is that there is no centralized site for partial counts. You have to google local municipalities to find out how the count is currently looking like.

[Hnv1]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I have quite a lot of friends in Germany who were radical leftists back in the days and now vote alliance or SPD as moderates (one votes Partei because he simply doesn't care and moved to Aachen). All the lawyers I know from Germany vote FDP, without an exception. But they don't mix.

Granted I don't know that many young voters, but that seems like quite a high swing between polarized parties in ideology and demographics

What do you mean by this?

Pro business and socialists with a capital S.
Professionals and white collar workers from the west compared to young radicals and DDR veterans/Ostaligists

[rosin]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

It only happens in the unlikely event that both traffic-light & Jamaica negotiations were to fail.

That will happen if there is too much tension between Die Grünen and FDP. If I remember correctly, that was a major reason it ended up with a GroKo the former two elections.

[Omega21]

One of the most ridiculous thing about following Bundestag elections is that there is no centralized site for partial counts. You have to google local municipalities to find out how the count is currently looking like.

2 in 3 German companies still use a fax machine regularly, and internet-wise, Germany ranks around Albania.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Aging out is a thing, but that alone doesn't explain Linke losing 2/3rds of their East Germany vote in 10 years.

It might actually, because of the amount of time that has passed since the Berlin wall fell. Life expectancy declines exponentially after a certain point as age goes up. And it is not like there has been a new population of old Linke voters entering into the electorate - rather there was just a lump sum of old people who remember some aspects of east Germany positively. At a certain point, there are no such people left, because too many voters don't remember East Germany well (or at least fondly - the later generations who came of age in the 70s-80s before it fell probably remember it least fondly as compared to those who came of age in the earlier days of the DDR).

Also, remember COVID happened and COVID disproportionately kills olds. No doubt that knocked off a few of the remaining Linke olds.

[Diouf]

One of the mega-trends, fragmentation, continues with this election. Simon Hix has presented this graph which shows the development in the number of effective parties in parliament.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One of the mega-trends, fragmentation, continues with this election. Simon Hix has presented this graph which shows the development in the number of effective parties in parliament.

Impressive it is more fragmented now than in the first election (which had thresholds at state level rather than national).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

That will happen if there is too much tension between Die Grünen and FDP. If I remember correctly, that was a major reason it ended up with a GroKo the former two elections.

Oh ... a Dane! Finally! 🤗
I wanted to ask a northern neighbor of ours if it's a big deal in the Danish news that Southern Schleswig is about to be represented in the Bundestag.

[Not Me, Us]

How's that one Schleswig-Holstein interest party doing? Are they likely to end up in the Bundestag?

[BigSerg]

One hour without any update, they are not counting the votes?

Dude this looks like California.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One hour without any update, they are not counting the votes?

Dude this looks like California.

Germany tends to count quite quickly.
The real issue is that you don't know who will go in government for quite some time, but that can't be helped.

[Sven der Igel]

Fun fact:

Anna-Lena Baerbock (Greens) once attended a Florida high school for a year as an exchange student.

She is a fluent American-English speaker.

[JerryArkansas]

One hour without any update, they are not counting the votes?

Dude this looks like California.

They have a lot of the vote counted, they just don't post the partial vote on news sites.

[rosin]

That will happen if there is too much tension between Die Grünen and FDP. If I remember correctly, that was a major reason it ended up with a GroKo the former two elections.

Oh ... a Dane! Finally!
I wanted to ask a northern neighbor of ours if it's a big deal in the Danish news that Southern Schleswig is about to be represented in the Bundestag.

Well, it has certainly been in the news, but the last couple of weeks, the election coverage has mostly boiled down to the 'presidential election' of Scholz vs. Laschet - with Baerbock as a possible kingmaker.

[Logical]

You have to comb through the municipal websites for the partial counts. Examples:
Berlin
Munich
Leipzig

[brucejoel99]

How's that one Schleswig-Holstein interest party doing? Are they likely to end up in the Bundestag?

With just 1 seat out of 730+, yes.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Fun fact:

Anna-Lena Baerbock (Greens) once attended a Florida high school for a year as an exchange student.

Did she write it into her résumé?

She is a fluent American-English speaker.

She isn't even fluent in German.

[kaoras]

Linke is holding on its seat in Leipzig, it seem almost sure they will get the 3 mandates

[Yeahsayyeah]

Looks, like CDU will hold Leipzig I (north), with a whooping 20,7 percent. FPTP is a travesty...

[Oryxslayer]

You have to comb through the municipal websites for the partial counts. Examples:
Berlin
Munich
Leipzig

Saxony appears to have the best of the state sites.

[Yeahsayyeah]

You have to comb through the municipal websites for the partial counts. Examples:
Berlin
Munich
Leipzig

Saxony appears to have the best of the state sites.

But they only have the results, if a muncipality is completely counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Grune lead in Berlin-Mitte. That is not at all surprising.
Die Linke is currently on top in 2 Berlin seats.

[mgop]

cdu is in shambles, lash**t reminds me of mccain 2008, he knows he doesn't have a chance after his predcessor destroyed the country and the party, but he plays along