Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11
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  Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11  (Read 3498 times)
CookieDamage
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« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 02:11:29 PM »
« edited: October 03, 2018, 02:16:04 PM by cookiedamage »

Y'all do realize NJ voters can't exactly overthrow political machines and that their continued existence isn't because we like them?? Oh wait that's too sensical. Y'all can shut your mouths now, considering that every single one of you live in states with corrupt politicians and organizations.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2018, 02:16:43 PM »

Nah, I see Hugin losing by like 7.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2018, 03:26:18 PM »

This is pretty much what happened with him in 2006. Is this other guy a moderate like Kean or a conservative like Christie?

He's a pharma executive with no prior political experience, so there's not much record. He is pro-choice and was prominently unendorsed by New Jersey Right to Life after he made that announcement. He's vaguely anti-tax (said he supports Trump's individual tax cuts and wants to make them permanent but opposes the cap on the SALT deduction and would remove it it), but it's unclear what his actual positions on tax would be as a politician. Overall, he sounds like he'd be the most centrist Republican Senator if elected, although that's not really saying all that much and hard to be sure if that's actually the case or all just posturing for the election since he has no record.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2018, 03:34:01 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.

I believe Vox also pushed undecideds. Unless they removed them from the poll entirely which is bad form

Vox Populi - it's a Republican polling outfit (sort of an equivalent to PPP), not the liberal media website Vox. And they apparently discarded undecideds, as their poll indicates no one responded "undecided". They do the same thing in all of their polls, which is really bad form as you noted.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2018, 05:42:27 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.

I believe Vox also pushed undecideds. Unless they removed them from the poll entirely which is bad form

Vox Populi - it's a Republican polling outfit (sort of an equivalent to PPP), not the liberal media website Vox. And they apparently discarded undecideds, as their poll indicates no one responded "undecided". They do the same thing in all of their polls, which is really bad form as you noted.

Vox Populi Polling is often referred to in polling circles as simply Vox, since the liberal media website doesn't do polling. It's understood that I didn't think Ezra Klein was calling up Morris County housewives. "Populi Polling" can be left unsaid.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2018, 07:02:33 PM »

This is pretty much what happened with him in 2006. Is this other guy a moderate like Kean or a conservative like Christie?

He is supposedly a moderate. In his ads, Hugin doesn't even mention that he's a Republican. Either way though, Menendez will be fine and I am so glad that this poll has come out to temper the panic and corroborate what I have been saying since Menendez decided to run for re-election.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2018, 01:33:21 AM »

Yeah, Safe D obviously. Looks like IceSpear has some explaining to do. Tongue

I do? I've always had this race at safe D. My point was that Menendez is way underperforming what you'd expect a generic Democrat to get in New Jersey during a favorable political climate because of his scandal. But if you took a Republican Bob Menendez with the same exact scandal and placed him in a solidly Republican state/district it wouldn't amount to a fart in the wind.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2018, 09:20:06 AM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment ever?

Or that NJ voters care about corruption, for that matter?

Menendez is corrupt, but Hugin isn't exactly an altarboy. His company committed fraud to promote  drugs for non-approved reasons (and paid a $280M fine). They also did tax frauds and unconscionable price raises though that seems to be par for pharmaceuticals, just as graft is par for NJ politicians.

I would still worry if I were a D. Hugin has been carpetbombing the NYC TV stations with ads for at least a month (on late night TV at least), and I find his ads to be quite effective. I've yet to see a Menendez ad.

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AMB1996
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« Reply #33 on: October 04, 2018, 10:26:16 AM »

They... did tax frauds? C'mon folks, I know the Menendez campaign has no support, but they can at least afford to proofread.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2018, 09:05:19 AM »

There were multiple tax fraud cases (which would have been a better though longer way of saying it).

But as far as your accusations, perhaps you should consider that I actually read a newspaper - this was all in NYT several months back. Oh let me guess, NYT is fake news.

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2018, 08:23:22 PM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment ever?

Or that NJ voters care about corruption, for that matter?

Menendez is corrupt, but Hugin isn't exactly an altarboy. His company committed fraud to promote  drugs for non-approved reasons (and paid a $280M fine). They also did tax frauds and unconscionable price raises though that seems to be par for pharmaceuticals, just as graft is par for NJ politicians.

I would still worry if I were a D. Hugin has been carpetbombing the NYC TV stations with ads for at least a month (on late night TV at least), and I find his ads to be quite effective. I've yet to see a Menendez ad.



I've noticed the reverse to be true lately. A lot more pro-Menendez/anti-Hugin ads have been airing emphasizing his shady business practices and likelihood of enabling Trump's agenda. This tells me that perhaps Hugin pulled a Rick Scott and invested in his TV ads a bit too early. Menendez was always going to win, but now he can have mobilized Democratic voters turn out instead of reluctant ones.
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