Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11
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  Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11  (Read 3502 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 03, 2018, 12:44:22 PM »

Menendez 53%
Hugin 42%

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 12:45:18 PM »

Yeah, Safe D obviously. Looks like IceSpear has some explaining to do. Tongue
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 12:45:30 PM »

This is pretty much what happened with him in 2006. Is this other guy a moderate like Kean or a conservative like Christie?
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 12:45:34 PM »

Easy R pickup because #CandidateQualityMatters
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 12:46:35 PM »

Now will people believe that this race isn't competitive? Safe D, hope pollsters won't waste any more time polling this race and will do some ND/IN polls instead.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 12:46:55 PM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 12:49:07 PM »

Hugin and Menendez are tied amongst men, Menendez up 19 with women.
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 12:49:27 PM »

Looks about right. The race is Likely D.
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 12:50:16 PM »

Well, this prevents me from being comfortable the race is true Lean.

Also, a reminder that RCP moved this to Toss-Up before the VoxPop and FDU polls.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 12:50:20 PM »

Hugin and Menendez are tied amongst men, Menendez up 19 with women.

The Kavanaugh effect.

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Quality candidate.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 12:52:57 PM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment ever?

Or that NJ voters care about corruption, for that matter?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 12:54:29 PM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment ever?

Or that NJ voters care about corruption, for that matter?

True enough. If they cared, the current NJ Dem machines would've been gone ages ago.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 12:56:50 PM »

The senator they deserve.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 12:59:58 PM »


He has awful favorables, but he actually has a net positive approval rating.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 01:00:38 PM »

I love how this comes out right after 538 joined in the concern trolling. God, 538 has a solid model but its "articles" are crap.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 01:04:36 PM »

Yep. Sounds right.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 01:06:30 PM »

Menendez will win reelection, but by 5-10 points, or even less.

Lean D.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 01:06:55 PM »

Well, this prevents me from being comfortable the race is true Lean.

Also, a reminder that RCP moved this to Toss-Up before the VoxPop and FDU polls.

RCP is a hack site. What else is new?
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Yank2133
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 01:07:48 PM »

I love how this comes out right after 538 joined in the concern trolling. God, 538 has a solid model but its "articles" are crap.

Yup.

Vox is like that as well. They are good with policy, but when it comes to politics, they are generally awful at it and play into the stereotype of being a bunch city-dwelling millennials.  
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AMB1996
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 01:13:00 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2018, 01:20:04 PM by AMB1996 »

After a little longer to stew on this outlier, some things I'm tossing around:

1. Some of the crosstabs are weird. White voters are perfectly split? They were +8 for Guadagno in a blowout.

2. Hugin's strong +9 net favorable makes me think he'd be a leading candidate for 2021 (assuming he loses this).

3. Hugin should probably be prepping hard for the debate(s). He's not going to win this race quietly.

Obviously, Quinnipiac is the most reliable pollster of this race so far. But it's still one data point and on the extreme side of the current batch. This does at least confirm that Menendez is leading at worst.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2018, 01:16:57 PM »

MUH TOSSUP NJ-SEN
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2018, 01:57:29 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2018, 01:59:00 PM »


Obviously, Quinnipiac is the most reliable pollster of this race so far. But it's still one data point and on the extreme side of the current batch. This does at least confirm that Menendez is leading at worst.

Interesting dilemma here - which do you trust: A lot of stinkers that all saying the same thing, or one quality pollster saying a different thing.

I go Quality > Quantity any day, but others might see differently.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2018, 02:02:02 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.

I believe Vox also pushed undecideds. Unless they removed them from the poll entirely which is bad form
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pikachu
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2018, 02:02:13 PM »

Now can we all shut up about this fantasy that NJ-Sen will go Republican in a Democratic-leaning environment ever?

Or that NJ voters care about corruption, for that matter?

Partisanship > corruption obviously, but it's not like a no-name primary challenger almost broke 40% for no reason. It was also a big issue in 2002, 2009, and to an extent 2017, and the effects can be seen in those elections.
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