Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11 (user search)
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  Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-NJ: Menendez +11  (Read 3501 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,532
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« on: October 03, 2018, 12:50:16 PM »

Well, this prevents me from being comfortable the race is true Lean.

Also, a reminder that RCP moved this to Toss-Up before the VoxPop and FDU polls.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,532
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 01:13:00 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2018, 01:20:04 PM by AMB1996 »

After a little longer to stew on this outlier, some things I'm tossing around:

1. Some of the crosstabs are weird. White voters are perfectly split? They were +8 for Guadagno in a blowout.

2. Hugin's strong +9 net favorable makes me think he'd be a leading candidate for 2021 (assuming he loses this).

3. Hugin should probably be prepping hard for the debate(s). He's not going to win this race quietly.

Obviously, Quinnipiac is the most reliable pollster of this race so far. But it's still one data point and on the extreme side of the current batch. This does at least confirm that Menendez is leading at worst.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,532
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 02:02:02 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.

I believe Vox also pushed undecideds. Unless they removed them from the poll entirely which is bad form
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,532
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 05:42:27 PM »

It looks like the difference between Quinnipiac and the other NJ-Sen pollsters is that Quinnipiac pushed the undecideds.  When it comes down to it, most NJ Dems and Dem-leaners aren't going to vote for freakin' Bob Hugin (R), especially in this particular midterm election.  They don't like Menendez's corruption, but it's not enough of an issue to help Republicans hold on to the Senate.

I believe Vox also pushed undecideds. Unless they removed them from the poll entirely which is bad form

Vox Populi - it's a Republican polling outfit (sort of an equivalent to PPP), not the liberal media website Vox. And they apparently discarded undecideds, as their poll indicates no one responded "undecided". They do the same thing in all of their polls, which is really bad form as you noted.

Vox Populi Polling is often referred to in polling circles as simply Vox, since the liberal media website doesn't do polling. It's understood that I didn't think Ezra Klein was calling up Morris County housewives. "Populi Polling" can be left unsaid.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,532
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2018, 10:26:16 AM »

They... did tax frauds? C'mon folks, I know the Menendez campaign has no support, but they can at least afford to proofread.
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