Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[MasterJedi]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

I'd argue that "Little Chicago" Milwaukee is more of an albatross in this state.

Only because most of rural Wisconsin is basically hofoidstan, aka really racist people. WOW at least tries to pretend to not be and has a lot of conservatives that don't hate black people, as long as they don't have to live next to them.

[ajc0918]

Is Lisa Neubauer expected to win? I haven't been following that race.

[Duke of York]

Is Lisa Neubauer expected to win? I haven't been following that race.

she's probably the slight favorite

[Scottholes 2.0]

Is Lisa Neubauer expected to win? I haven't been following that race.

She'll win if Democrats actually show up to vote like they did in last year's statewide SC election!

[Drew]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

[Gass3268]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Wow, really bad for Hagedorn. It is almost a certainty that if the liberals can win this year, they can take the State Supreme Court next year as the election will be on the same day as the Democratic Presidential Primary. 

[MasterJedi]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Wow, really bad for Hagedorn. It is almost a certainty that if the liberals can win this year, they can take the State Supreme Court next year as the election will be on the same day as the Democratic Presidential Primary. 

Hence why they REALLY wanted to get that removed as they were terrified of normal people voting that day.

[Gass3268]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Wow, really bad for Hagedorn. It is almost a certainty that if the liberals can win this year, they can take the State Supreme Court next year as the election will be on the same day as the Democratic Presidential Primary. 

Hence why they REALLY wanted to get that removed as they were terrified of normal people voting that day.

Big reason why the county clerks revolt was huge in stopping it.

[Gass3268]

Former MoveOn Director and Madison native Ben Wikler running for the Chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party.

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1098805380166103040

He did a lot of good work in the Fall campaigning for the Democratic ticket. Given his obvious connections he would be a good choice, obviously much better than Randy Bryce.

[_]

I know about Hagedorn being really bad, but what would the balance of the State SC be assuming Neubauer gets on the bench?  And if the Court flips will they be able to draw the maps themselves should Evers and the GOP not be able to reach an agreement on a map? (Likely I assume)

[Gass3268]

I know about Hagedorn being really bad, but what would the balance of the State SC be assuming Neubauer gets on the bench?  And if the Court flips will they be able to draw the maps themselves should Evers and the GOP not be able to reach an agreement on a map? (Likely I assume)

It would remain the same as the vacancy is a liberal (Shirley S. Abrahamson). However, it would all but confirm that the liberals would take control of the court in 2020, as the Democratic Presidential Primary is taking place the same day as next year's Supreme Court election. This is why the Republicans tried to move up the primary to early March.

To your second question, no. It would go to the federal court of the Western District of Wisconsin, which is an Obama-Obama-Carter appointed court. They would then appoint someone to draw the map. It's possible that folks could try to sue after the new court is seated in mid-2020 to declare the current maps unconsitutional, but it would be almost impossibe for the timing to work by the 2020 elections.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

I'd argue that "Little Chicago" Milwaukee is more of an albatross in this state.

Only because most of rural Wisconsin is basically hofoidstan, aka really racist people. WOW at least tries to pretend to not be and has a lot of conservatives that don't hate black people, as long as they don't have to live next to them.

Katherine Cramer's "Politics of Resentment" makes a case that rural resentment, while directed at both Milwaukee and Madison, is primarily directed at Madison and public employees/state government generally. There are a ton of reasons for this but it mainly boils down to a perception that state government does not understand and does not respond to or respect concerns of rural voters. So when an area like Madison grows into the cultural and economic powerhouse of the state while the rest of the state undergoes the same rural decay we see elsewhere, it's natural for the ire to be directed at Madison and not Milwaukee.

[Pollster]

Question for the masses - if the North Carolina judge's ruling regarding the invalidation of laws passed by an illegally gerrymandered legislature is upheld, could activists aggressively follow their lead and use a future progressive Wisconsin Supreme Court to essentially demolish most if not all of Walker's legacy, or does the state have provisions against this?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Question for the masses - if the North Carolina judge's ruling regarding the invalidation of laws passed by an illegally gerrymandered legislature is upheld, could activists aggressively follow their lead and use a future progressive Wisconsin Supreme Court to essentially demolish most if not all of Walker's legacy, or does the state have provisions against this?

That would be amazing. Hope it happens.  RTW needs to go.

[Gass3268]

Question for the masses - if the North Carolina judge's ruling regarding the invalidation of laws passed by an illegally gerrymandered legislature is upheld, could activists aggressively follow their lead and use a future progressive Wisconsin Supreme Court to essentially demolish most if not all of Walker's legacy, or does the state have provisions against this?

I don't think they would have to use the same argument as North Carolina, but there are a lot of items (RTW, Act 10, Voter ID, etc.) that could probably get struck down with a liberal court.

[Gass3268]

Good for Evers:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1100157509359276032

[Pollster]

Question for the masses - if the North Carolina judge's ruling regarding the invalidation of laws passed by an illegally gerrymandered legislature is upheld, could activists aggressively follow their lead and use a future progressive Wisconsin Supreme Court to essentially demolish most if not all of Walker's legacy, or does the state have provisions against this?

I don't think they would have to use the same argument as North Carolina, but there are a lot of items (RTW, Act 10, Voter ID, etc.) that could probably get struck down with a liberal court.

I actually think the opposite - the ruling in North Carolina accomplishes a huge percentage of liberal activist goals in essentially one ruling. I anticipate it will become a powerful tool in the coming years.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Good for Evers:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1100157509359276032

I'm proud to call him MY GOVERNOR!! I am glad we finally have someone who works for the people of Wisconsin and not the corporate billionaires!

[Dr. Arch]

Good for Evers:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1100157509359276032

Thank goodness

[MasterJedi]

All the old conservative FB people are furious at this, can the Governor just round them up and deploy them to the border with the same sh**tty pay instead?

[Hatchet]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

[Scottholes 2.0]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

Are you, by any chance, Hofoid's sockpuppet?

[Gass3268]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

Wisconsin Independents will not care or remember this in 2022. Also Milwaukee's population has essentially been flat this decade, so I don't know what you are talking about.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

Are you, by any chance, Hofoid's sockpuppet?

LMAO at the thought of Evers being "far-left".  C'mon, I thought you knew me better than that. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

K