|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 21, 2020, 08:31:55 AM
News:

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1  (Read 2703 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 759
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 27, 2018, 08:01:02 AM »

Logged
Hindsight is 2020
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 08:02:52 AM »

Lol
Logged
Torrain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,718
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 08:04:32 AM »


But Emerson
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,707


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:16 AM »

Zaybay's poll prediction wasn't too far off, lol
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,047
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:21 AM »

>e m e r s o n, but I expect this to be very close on election night.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,252
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:35 AM »

Itís Emerson with 20% undecideds
Logged
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,708


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 08:08:47 AM »


Yeah, too many undecideds to be particularly meaningful. Both candidates will definitely get more than 37/38...
Logged
Biden +3 in Texas
dfwlibertylover
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,776
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2018, 08:12:51 AM »

Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,127
Venezuela



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2018, 08:18:39 AM »

Okay Emerson.
Logged
Torrain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,718
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2018, 08:23:43 AM »



I've heard a lot of noise about O'Rourke losing gettable voters by refusing to moderate, while Cruz loses voters due to his opportunism (flipping from opponent to supporter) surrounding Trump.
I wonder whether there's an effective strategy for the O'Rourke camp to spin this;
'Better to have principles that you can disagree rather than no principles at all.'
Play the Election of 1800 defense.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,503
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2018, 08:39:07 AM »

Big if true.

I wouldn't be overstate the poll, though, because there are so many undecided. A good many of them are probably right-leaning and coming home on election day. But Cruz has reason to worry, no question. Polling under 40% with almost 100% name recognition is not a good sign.
Logged
Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,159
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2018, 08:47:11 AM »

Well, I predicted a tie, so not far off. Too bad so many junk pollsters are polling this race.
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,342
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2018, 08:48:20 AM »

21% undecided? Lame
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,949
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2018, 09:02:41 AM »

A good rule of thumb is to trash any poll that shows 20% or more undecided.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,276
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2018, 09:13:07 AM »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:03 AM »

I don't know about the poll credibility but the Cruz camp is going be crapping bricks if these figures hold out for another 6 weeks. The fact Cruz is barely eking out leads in titanium solid Republican Texas is showing just how apathetic that base is becoming to him. And with over 20% still undecided in a state THAT big is a damning figure. I can't believe I'm saying this but O'Rourke may just have better than a snowball's chance in hell if these figures hold deep into October. By then it's possible O'Rourke's campaign could see just enough of a surge via undecideds and apathetic Republicans who will not vote his way to put him over. But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate. Still a lean/tilt R race at this point but I'll always cheer for new blood in the Senate.

Unless it's Rick Scott. He can heck off
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:18 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,749


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:11 AM »

Beto not cracking the magic 60% Democrats need when the Russians are interfering, sad! Safe R.
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:33 AM »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?

Probably. And probably deciding if they should either stay home or write-in. I don't know if O'Rourke has any blessings from other in-office or past candidates that might charge up the voting base but I'm not so sure he's gonna even need it now.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,252
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2018, 09:24:19 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

Iíve seen speculation Crux could still be wounded from his non-endorsement at the 2016 RNC... this is more a theory about his diversion from Abbottís numbers rather than this junk poll, though
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2018, 09:26:51 AM »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2018, 09:29:51 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

^^^ Absolutely 100% this. We've had enough samples (good polls or not) to find out that Cruz is badly underperforming right now when all those samples (good polls or not) reflecting an expected margin for Abbot.

Oh my sweet, merciful Lord and Savior what I would not give to hear what Ann Richards would have say about all this right now. "Poor Ted Cruz.... he's finding the hard way that a true Texan from El Paso doesn't back down to anybody!"
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2018, 09:32:01 AM »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Your theory on a vote split is definitely starting to hold some water here. I'm intrigued what the cross samples for Abbott are
Logged
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,708


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 09:37:15 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2018, 09:41:22 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Other cities, however, have not shown elasticity, and in fact have gotten only more inelastic. I think its more probable that the suburbs are swinging for Beto, but staying for Abbott. It could also point to some cities that are trending D, like Ft. Worth, voting for the D in the senate, but sticking with their roots for governor. I dont see Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso voting R for governor.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.