TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1 (user search)
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  TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1  (Read 4793 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:18 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 09:26:51 AM »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 09:41:22 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Other cities, however, have not shown elasticity, and in fact have gotten only more inelastic. I think its more probable that the suburbs are swinging for Beto, but staying for Abbott. It could also point to some cities that are trending D, like Ft. Worth, voting for the D in the senate, but sticking with their roots for governor. I dont see Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso voting R for governor.
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