TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1 (user search)
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  TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1  (Read 4841 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,793


« on: August 27, 2018, 08:08:47 AM »


Yeah, too many undecideds to be particularly meaningful. Both candidates will definitely get more than 37/38...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,793


« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 09:37:15 AM »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,793


« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 06:31:03 PM »

Latinos are going to be Beto's key.  AAs are important too, but Latinos are to Texas what African-Americans are to Georgia.  Beto will need high turnout in the Mexican border counties just like Abrams needs high turnout in Metro ATL and the Black Belt counties.

TX Latinos are very different from Georgia AAs. The difference is that Georgia AA's vote, while Texas Latinos do not vote.

Latinos will not vote in particularly high numbers and are not the key at all. The key is white suburban voters in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.

The question is whether Beto can do what no other TX Democrat has done (or come even vaguely close to doing) before - swing those white suburban voters to his side in big numbers.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,793


« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2018, 10:40:51 AM »

At the risk of derailing This Thread, can anyone explain to me why voter registration and turnout among Texas Hispanic citizens is so abysmal? I don't recall it being nearly so bad in States like Nevada Colorado or New Mexico, for example, though I could be wrong.

There is the demographics, of course, but in South Texas it is also a cultural/historical issue. There is a history of machine politics, elections/votes being bought, and results being rigged (for example, LBJ's extra votes). Over time, this makes people believe that voting doesn't matter, and is not a way in which things can be improved. There is a lack of a perceived reason to vote, or a reason why voting is culturally important.

In addition, statewide general election races have not recently been remotely competitive, so this makes it seem like there is even less reason to vote. In many counties in South Texas, it has actually been the case that turnout in the Democratic primary is higher than General Election turnout. Because whereas the Democratic primary determines who holds local political offices, the General Election has been a foregone conclusion - Republicans will win statewide.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,793


« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2018, 10:44:24 AM »

For example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/us/politics/texas-vote-buying-case-casts-glare-on-tradition-of-election-day-goads.html

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