TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1

[Use Your Illusion]

I don't know about the poll credibility but the Cruz camp is going be crapping bricks if these figures hold out for another 6 weeks. The fact Cruz is barely eking out leads in titanium solid Republican Texas is showing just how apathetic that base is becoming to him. And with over 20% still undecided in a state THAT big is a damning figure. I can't believe I'm saying this but O'Rourke may just have better than a snowball's chance in hell if these figures hold deep into October. By then it's possible O'Rourke's campaign could see just enough of a surge via undecideds and apathetic Republicans who will not vote his way to put him over. But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate. Still a lean/tilt R race at this point but I'll always cheer for new blood in the Senate.

Unless it's Rick Scott. He can heck off

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And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?

Probably. And probably deciding if they should either stay home or write-in. I don't know if O'Rourke has any blessings from other in-office or past candidates that might charge up the voting base but I'm not so sure he's gonna even need it now.

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Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

^^^ Absolutely 100% this. We've had enough samples (good polls or not) to find out that Cruz is badly underperforming right now when all those samples (good polls or not) reflecting an expected margin for Abbot.

Oh my sweet, merciful Lord and Savior what I would not give to hear what Ann Richards would have say about all this right now. "Poor Ted Cruz.... he's finding the hard way that a true Texan from El Paso doesn't back down to anybody!"

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Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Your theory on a vote split is definitely starting to hold some water here. I'm intrigued what the cross samples for Abbott are

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But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate.

O'Rourke's lead is in large part driven by Cruz, but he's in a very different situation that Doug Jones.
Doug Jones is an incumbent in a Trump+29 state which is not trending towards Democrats.
Beto O'Rourke would be an incumbent in a Trump+8 that is trending towards Democrats. If you look at the crosstabs, you can also see an enormous age gap. In six years, that means that O'Rourke's base will be a lot bigger. Also, it's pretty likely that 2024 is a democratic election nationwide, and incumbency still gives him some advantage. I think that a good R nominee in 2024 might win, but O'Rourke has a much less narrow path to thread for re-election that Jones.

That's fair enough. You're right in principle on all affairs when discussing Texas vs Alabama. But I made my statement not assuming anything for 2024 because age gaps and trends can be difficult to predict. O'Rourke's voting base will indeed get bigger just as you said but I do not think that it's going to offset that 15+ point disparity between Cruz and Abbot that's allowing O'Rouke such a fight in this race. Republican voters are not going to bat for Cruz right now but they're still out there. Their base is going to grow as well and come 2024, they're gonna want their seat back. If O'Rourke wins this year and in 2024 it'll be because he won a majority of the 20% of undecideds in this election and went on to retain them 6 years later.

But in other words I can't think of any scenario in which the GOP does not do everything to win its seat back in 2024 if Cruz should lose in November

 

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There’s no way Cruz wins by 1 while Abbott wins by 20.

Stranger things have happened. Trump shattered turnout records despite an unfavorable rating across the board

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But he was in a teenage rock band! That kind of social identification and skateboarding is a threat!

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https://twitter.com/SpencerPolling/status/1034063978396303360

I legitimately wonder if there are Republicans voting for O'Rourke for the sole purpose of giving it to Cruz for not endorsing Trump.

There is. Trump is like the damn golden child that can do no wrong apparently