The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Atlas Force]

I don’t really know why people were cheering when Phifer dropped out, it made it a lot easier for Lee to win because now she’s the only anti-mining progressive remaining in the race, and she’s a well-known, popular figure in Duluth.

She probably is currently. Internal polls usually way overestimate a candidate’s support (Stacey Evans released a poll showing her down by 8 points a week before the primary, she lost by 50). It won’t be that extreme, but Radinovich is really hurt by splitting the pro-mining, moderate vote with both Metsa and Kennedy. Radinovich would beat Lee easily one-on-one, but the large amount of candidates running is hurting Radinovich and benefiting Lee.

Phifer winning the endorsement would probably have been better for Radinovich in the long-run. Metsa and Kennedy would’ve dropped out because they pledged to do so if an endorsement was made, while Lee still would’ve ran regardless, leaving Radinovich as the only pro-mining candidate against 2 progressive anti-mining candidates. But I guess politicians suck at politics.

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It's over for the DFL. Many Minnesotans have great memories of T-Paw and will happily vote for him. Say goodbye to MN-01 and MN-08 while we're at it. Blue wave is officially dead in this state.

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My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.

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Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

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We can toss in Scott Wallace. That poll was brutal this late, when the "wave" is supposedly getting stronger.

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Franken and Conyers will not resign.  Thus two more Democrat lifelines to Moore.  How many more will come before the 12th.

Franken says I will change and commit no more sexual assaults.  Trump can say I have have already changed.  Bill Clinton says "change". Who? Me?

Why does the spell feature change Franken to Frankenstein. Clairvoyance?

[Atlas Force]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

[Atlas Force]

He was supposed to lose in 2016.

And 2014.

Anyway, if the Democrats underperform in 2018 or focus more on the Sun Belt and the suburbs, this is exactly the kind of district where a Republican incumbent would win reelection.

Blum has really proven to be strong, I think he's favored to win reelection. And if Demcorats go the more Sun Belt/suburban route, that probably helps Blum. I think in the near future, IA-01 becomes more R than IA-03.

[Atlas Force]

Re: SC-01

It's an extreme longshot either way, but Republicans are probably better off without Sanford and all his baggage.

Almost certainly not

No. Likely R.

Nah, the type of suburbs that make up SC-01 are very Trumpy.

Honestly, Arrington probably makes this race safer than it was before.

Does Joe Cunningham have any appeal whatsoever to pick up disaffected Sanford voters?  He's noted as a lawyer and yoga studio owner--I don't think that weighs in his favor in this district.  But if he can reach out to the other side, he could probably get into the mid-40s.

He's in favor of lowering the Medicare eligibility age, believes in climate change, supports abortion rights, anti-LBTQ discrimination legislation and is pro-gun control.

While he's a candidate I would vote for, that's not a recipe for a victory in this district, let alone getting to 40%.

If the DCCC knew that Sanford was going to be in danger, they should have tried to recruit a stronger candidate (maybe, Leonidas Stavrinakis?)

[Atlas Force]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Was just about to post this. "New Ileana Ros-Lehtinen" my butt.

[Atlas Force]

I was listening to the NPR show Left Right and Center and they had two experienced Orange County politicos on to discuss the races and both the Republican and Gustavo Arellano thought that Dems would probably only pick up one Orange County district--very pessimistic.

In any case, I think Dems pick up three out of four...

CA49 - Likely Dem - An easy win for Levin. This district is changing fast and Levin's a good candidate who is able to get cross-over support in the most GOP part of the district...

CA45 - Leans Dem - Mimi Waters had been seen as a relatively strong incumbent but she's made some gaffes. Meanwhile, Katie Porter isn't a perfect candidate. But I think the district dynamics here are just too much for Republicans to overcome.

Irvine and Tustin provide a solid blue base and feature exactly the suburban moderate type voters that Trump has had the most trouble with. Moreover, while there is a high Asian-American population in the district, the immigrant community in Irvine is more educated and likely includes more American-born Asian-Americans than CD39 or CD48. That will result in turnout dynamics and ideology that more closely aligns the communities in the district with white liberals.

Polling shows that Porter has a slight lead here and I believe it.

CA48 - Slight Lean Dem - Dana Rohrabacher is a mess and I think Harley Rouda has done pretty well. But we should not underestimate the extreme Republican-ness of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach Republicans aren't generally Trump fans but do they want Nancy Pelosi to run congress? Trump/Rohrabacher are perfect for the Republican politics of Huntington Beach which is known to have more of a racist/jingoist Republicanism that prefers the beach and bar scene to the country club where Trump--even as a country club owner--may still be considered tacky.

That said, there are strong Dem areas--mainly Laguna Beach/Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa but low Latino turnout in Costa Mesa can be killer.

I'm surprised by the polling that shows a tie but hoping to see some growth from Rouda next month.

CA39 - Slight Lean Rep - What a mess. Kim is a good candidate although i don't think she's the rock star she's been made out to be. It's just that Cisneros is a disaster. Plus the district dynamics are tough. Dems rely on strong turnout from Latinos and Asian-Americans. The Asian-American vote in this district, meanwhile, is heavily Chinese (LA County) and Korean (Orange County).

The Chinese vote is quite insular and the community in the district includes many relatively new immigrants. Unlike in Monterey Park--where there's a strong Judy-Chu-run Chinese-American Democratic machine, the Republicans have historically had stronger ties to the Chinese vote in Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar. Sen. Ling Ling Chang, Mei Mei Huff, and several past and present Walnut city council members... Of course, Young Kim being Korean along with State Assemblyman Choi also helps.

The white voters in the district, meanwhile, in Fullerton, Brea, and Yorba Linda tend to include more Trumpian tea-party types than you might find in CA45 or CA49. Unless Cisneros can figure out how to get support from Chinese-Americans, he's going to be sunk.

Irvine and Tustin aren't a solid blue base. They have slim Democratic voter registration advantages.  Lake Forest and Mission Viejo both have strong Republican voter registration edges. CA-45 will be hard for a Democrat to win. Costa Mesa and Aliso Viejo aren't strong Democratic areas they both have a Republican voter registration edge. You just explained why CA-48 will be hard to win, but then you're surprised that the latest poll is a tie, so why do you have it as Lean D. If any other Republican was running in CA-48 they would easily win. Huntington Beach and Newport Beach might just be too Republican for Rouda to win this district. It's tossup because of Rohrabacher.

With that said I agree that CA-39 is lean R and CA-49 is Likely D

[Atlas Force]

Can't be bothered to find the original post, gonna have to make do with a screenshot:

[Atlas Force]

Yeah, this'll be a Wendy Davis-esque crushing.

[Atlas Force]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23172.msg499663#msg499663

From 2005:

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.

[Atlas Force]

If the left gets their way and knocks off Biden, you'll be adding 2020 President to this list.

[Atlas Force]

I remember this! (from my lurking days) Yeah, I didn't know who the fck this lady was either. Why does every Democrat now think she's our next President? If she plans on taking on Scott Brown, she can't be too good.

She's essentially what Democrats held Obama up as four years ago. This unapologetic liberal savior who was going to finally be the start of a left-wing revival.

Unlike Obama, she seems to be the genuine article as far as her politics. That also probably means she won't have a chance at being President, and may not even be Senator.

[Atlas Force]

There are gonna be a lot of people here looking absolutely dumb come the night of February 5th 2024.

Hahahahaha

Should have waited until the night of February 5th 2024 to post this here for maximum comedy effect