Will Democrats win SC-01?

[NewYorkExpress]

With Mark Sanford's defeat (and quick concession) tonight, becoming the second Republican to lose renomination, the question becomes will Democrats flip the district.

Their nominee, Joe Cunningham is about even with the primary winner, State Rep. Katie Arrington, in money raised to this point, and the district has gotten slightly less Republican (sort of), going from 58-40 Romney, to 53-40 Trump.

Sanford won in 2016 by a margin of 58.56-33.99.

The District has a PVI of R+10 (at least according to Wikipedia).

So without Sanford on the ballot, can the Democrats put the seat in play, or is Sanford not being on the ballot a good thing for Republicans?

[Tartarus Sauce]

If the wave is big enough, yes. This is not the Safe R seat some have thought it to be.

[IceSpear]

It's an extreme longshot either way, but Republicans are probably better off without Sanford and all his baggage.

[Maxwell]

Probably not. I don't think this is Safe R, but this is a longshot.

[Young Conservative]

Honestly, Arrington probably makes this race safer than it was before.

[KingSweden]

It's an extreme longshot either way, but Republicans are probably better off without Sanford and all his baggage.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R---> Likely R. They should still hold this no problem though. Honestly Mark may not have been that popular with the GOP primary electorate, but just like Freitas, they are both much better GE candidates than either Arrington or Cucky Stewart.

[Adam Griffin]

It's within reach potentially. Colbert's sister cleared 45% in a low-turnout special in 2013 against Sanford, which weren't exactly the most friendly times or circumstances for Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

Possibly. I don't know if it flips or not.

[Yellowhammer]

Almost certainly not

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So glad that yet another "moderate" (more like libertarian) republican got eliminated in a primary.

And people say the republicans aren't extremists... when will people wake up? And some random dude got 40% vs Comstock, who is a good representative... WHY?

Republicans need a huge wake up call in 2018. I hope people like Katie get obliterated for the inane acts they've done.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No, Democrats can not win SC-01 until they can win Charleston County more comfortably. That being said places like Mount Pleasant and Daniel Island fit the same mold as SE Charlotte and North Fulton in Atlanta plus downtown Charleston has become heavily gentrified so its moving the Democrats way but Clyburn district will probably pick up more of Charleston soon.

[Brittain33]

This district is Likely R but could flip in a blue wave. In 2008, the previous incumbent only held on by 4 points against a lesbian Democrat.

[Tintrlvr]

This district is Likely R but could flip in a blue wave. In 2008, the previous incumbent only held on by 4 points against a lesbian Democrat.

It was less gerrymandered then.

[Politician]

Safe R->Lean R. Likely not.

[smoltchanov]

No. Likely R.

[ON Progressive]

No. Likely R.

[Jeppe]

Nah, the type of suburbs that make up SC-01 are very Trumpy.

[Brittain33]

This district is Likely R but could flip in a blue wave. In 2008, the previous incumbent only held on by 4 points against a lesbian Democrat.

It was less gerrymandered then.

What changed? It looks to me that Charleston area is as gerrymandered as it ever was for VRA reasons, but they gave up safe R territory in the north for safe R territory to the south.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I came back to say.... what on earth happened? I guess I'll be voting straight Democrat this cycle. McMcaster is awful and I can't vote for Arrington.

I think many of you are underestimating the Democrat's chances here in SC-01. It almost flipped in 2008 and Charleston has moved further towards the Democrats since then. Granted, it was less gerrymandered then. I still think Arrington will win in a close race but if the wave is large enough I wouldn't be shocked to see this district flip

[Xing]

Probably not, but it's more likely to flip than SC-05, at this point. Likely R.

[Bidenworth2020]

I came back to say.... what on earth happened? I guess I'll be voting straight Democrat this cycle. McMcaster is awful and I can't vote for Arrington.

I think many of you are underestimating the Democrat's chances here in SC-01. It almost flipped in 2008 and Charleston has moved further towards the Democrats since then. Granted, it was less gerrymandered then. I still think Arrington will win in a close race but if the wave is large enough I wouldn't be shocked to see this district flip

what Republicans would you vote for? you seem like a center left democrat

[Devout Centrist]

I came back to say.... what on earth happened? I guess I'll be voting straight Democrat this cycle. McMcaster is awful and I can't vote for Arrington.

I think many of you are underestimating the Democrat's chances here in SC-01. It almost flipped in 2008 and Charleston has moved further towards the Democrats since then. Granted, it was less gerrymandered then. I still think Arrington will win in a close race but if the wave is large enough I wouldn't be shocked to see this district flip

Did you vote in the Republican Primary? I knew Sanford was in danger, but his performance yesterday was far worse than I expected.

[BuckeyeNut]

Honestly, Arrington probably makes this race safer than it was before.

[wesmoorenerd]

SC-01 is pretty much on the cusp of noncompetitive. It's the kind of race that may go for the Dem but only in the largest of waves. Is it possible? Yeah. Is it likely? No.