PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197698 times)
Cactus Jack
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« Reply #550 on: March 01, 2018, 08:58:14 PM »

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look



Please don't be that profane here.

The epitome of class is lecturing us about being "profane" now?
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henster
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« Reply #551 on: March 02, 2018, 01:51:05 AM »


Is there a Mrs. Lamb? Hard to believe he's a bachelor unless..
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JG
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« Reply #552 on: March 02, 2018, 08:05:45 AM »


Is there a Mrs. Lamb? Hard to believe he's a bachelor unless..

He doesn't mention a wife anywhere on his campaign website, which would usually mean that he isn't married.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #553 on: March 02, 2018, 11:00:35 AM »

Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.


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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #554 on: March 02, 2018, 11:02:29 AM »

Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.
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hofoid
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« Reply #555 on: March 02, 2018, 11:04:14 AM »

Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.
Yep, great FF move for Saccone. He had shown he puts into priority people's livelihoods in this district. Lamb's turn.
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Doimper
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« Reply #556 on: March 02, 2018, 01:23:19 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2018, 01:28:16 PM by Doctor Imperialism »

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #557 on: March 02, 2018, 01:24:04 PM »

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

Can you give us a link please?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #558 on: March 02, 2018, 01:26:04 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34
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hofoid
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« Reply #559 on: March 02, 2018, 01:28:03 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #560 on: March 02, 2018, 01:30:48 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Trump being 6 points above water in a district he won by 19 is a pretty terrible result.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #561 on: March 02, 2018, 01:32:40 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Trump being 6 points above water in a district he won by 19 is a pretty terrible result.

And Casey only being down 7 is amazing.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #562 on: March 02, 2018, 01:33:00 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbers for Casey.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #563 on: March 02, 2018, 01:34:38 PM »

Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.
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hofoid
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« Reply #564 on: March 02, 2018, 01:35:23 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #565 on: March 02, 2018, 01:36:52 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.
I doubt it will be that easy.
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hofoid
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« Reply #566 on: March 02, 2018, 01:37:02 PM »

Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.
Are we really surprised after Casey backstabbed Western Penn. on guns?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #567 on: March 02, 2018, 01:38:13 PM »

I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?
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Holmes
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« Reply #568 on: March 02, 2018, 01:39:27 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Oh, that's how it works? I'll let Strange and Moore know the good news.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #569 on: March 02, 2018, 01:39:44 PM »

I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?

I never said he was. Casey is going to put up career-high numbers in the Philly burbs with Barletta running. But it's still distressing to see the continued erosion of Democratic strength in Western PA, even as the national environment is very blue.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #570 on: March 02, 2018, 01:41:16 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

While this may be true, the only visit Trump was planning to do was cancelled, and we now only have 11 days left, so it's a 50/50 if Trump even goes at this point. And Pence does not count, he does little, and is quite a bad fit for the district as well.
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hofoid
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« Reply #571 on: March 02, 2018, 01:41:45 PM »

I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?
Considering that districts like the 18th are his biggest sources of support in the state , that is an unforced error which helps the Dems, I admit. (I'm not always doom and gloom.)
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YE
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« Reply #572 on: March 02, 2018, 01:42:09 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.
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OneJ
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« Reply #573 on: March 02, 2018, 01:45:51 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.
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hofoid
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« Reply #574 on: March 02, 2018, 01:46:50 PM »

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.
See, I might buy that argument if the 18th isn't literally the place that swung heavily toward Trump 2 years ago. It was conceivable that Brown tapped into the growing discontent among working class Catholics throughout the state that swung from Kerry to McCain just 2 years before in '08.
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