Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[DL]

Christine Elliott would have easily win Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke Lakeshore as those are both ridings where the PC vote is quite upper middle class. Etobicoke North would have also gone PC if Ford were the candidate

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that the Liberals would not have held up so well with higher professionals, but also would not have collapsed so badly with minorities in the suburbs. Hard to quantify in terms of seats tbh.

[lilTommy]

Christine Elliott probably would have won Don Valley West for them, but I don't she would have done as well for them in Scarborough and Etobicoke.

I would add Don Valley East here possibly since the PCs had a better(star) candidate, but the Liberals would have held on to places like Scarborough Agincourt, maybe even Scarborough Centre but I think Sc.C is a little swingy. I'll add that the NDP would have won Scarborough Rouge and Etobicoke North BUT would have not won the DT ridings with as high a vote in places like Spadina-Fort York and Toronto Centre, still won them but the OLP would have been much closer in vote (around 35%-40% instead of the 20%-30% TC might have been won by only 5-10 points instead of the 26)
I'm unsure of Eglinton-Lawrence under Elliott? the NDP vote would have probably been less then the 18% this year, probably closer to 10% like 2014... that would have benefited the OLP, but Elliott would have had a greater appeal here in this part of TO, so would that have been enough for the OLP to hold? maybe.
The OLP did relatively well in Etobicoke Centre, 34% so this might have been the dark horse for the OLP; was Et.C more a Ford effect or general PC swing, probably a little of both.

[DL]

I would add Don Valley East here possibly since the PCs had a better(star) candidate, but the Liberals would have held on to places like Scarborough Agincourt, maybe even Scarborough Centre but I think Sc.C is a little swingy.

Keep in mind that the PCs won Scarborough Rouge River in a byelection and drove the Liberals into 3rd place and that was when Patrick Brown was leader (not Ford)...Scarborough-Agincourt was already looking like low hanging fruit for the PCs long before there was any so-called "Ford Nation" effect

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough-Agincourt was already looking like low hanging fruit for the NDP long before there was any so-called "Ford Nation" effect

I think you mean the PCs?  Agincourt was never "low hanging fruit" for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Some say St. Paul's would have gone for Christine Elliott because "it's rich" but I have my doubts. 

On the whole, I don't think she would have delivered more seats than Ford did (but we'll never know).

[King of Kensington]

Christine Elliott would have easily win Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke Lakeshore as those are both ridings where the PC vote is quite upper middle class. Etobicoke North would have also gone PC if Ford were the candidate

I don't think Ford would have run unless he was leading the PCs (yeah he promised he would, but what good is a "promise" from a Ford?)

[DL]

Scarborough-Agincourt was already looking like low hanging fruit for the NDP long before there was any so-called "Ford Nation" effect

I think you mean the PCs?  Agincourt was never "low hanging fruit" for the NDP.

Corrected

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough North almost seems like an Agincourt/Rouge Park-hybrid.  Looking at the poll by polls it looks like Cho dominate the western "Agincourt" part while the "Rouge Park" part was closer between the PCs and NDP.

[lilTommy]

Scarborough North almost seems like an Agincourt/Rouge Park-hybrid.  Looking at the poll by polls it looks like Cho dominate the western "Agincourt" part while the "Rouge Park" part was closer between the PCs and NDP.

I believe that their is a noticable ethnic divide around here. East side of Scarborough North and pretty much all of Scarborough Rouge is heavily South Asian; West side of Sc.North and most of Sc.Agincourt is heavy Asian (Chinese) population. The rough boundary is Markham Rd.

http://www.metropolis.net/pdfs/Evolution%20of%20Ethnic%20Enclaves-Oct27.pdf

http://i.imgur.com/WAOIWwQ.jpg - Ethnic Diversity map

[King of Kensington]

From what I've seen the PCs won a plurality of the visible minority vote but didn't do quite as well as among whites.  I suspect they got over 50% of the Chinese vote, which pushed up the PC visible minority vote share.  I wonder if the NDP won pluralities among South Asian and Black voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

From what I've seen the PCs won a plurality of the visible minority vote but didn't do quite as well as among whites.  I suspect they got over 50% of the Chinese vote, which pushed up the PC visible minority vote share.  I wonder if the NDP won pluralities among South Asian and Black voters.

I'd imagine the NDP won the South Asian vote based on their result in Brampton. As for Black voters, they definitely swung heavily to the PCs; hard to say how they voted. Maybe a three way split?

[King of Kensington]

Re: the Black vote, in addition to Etobicoke North itself, Ford was able to turn traditional dead zones like York South-Weston and Humber River into three-way races, so obviously the PC vote share increased among Black voters (from a low very starting point).

Looking at poll by poll results in NW Toronto (outside Etobicoke North), it looks like the more heavily Black sections (such as Lawrence Heights and the big apartment clusters of Weston and Jane-Finch) went quite strongly for the NDP.  Meanwhile nearby Italian homeowner areas swung heavily to the PCs and the NDP was generally quite a distant third in these areas.

There's also significant Black populations in east Scarborough, Ajax and much of Brampton - but I don't know these areas as well and haven't really siphoned through the poll-by-polls.

[DL]

There is also a large Black community in the western part of St. Paul's around Vaughan Road and it seems to have voted heavily NDP...and its worth noting that the NDP now has 4 Black MPPs

[King of Kensington]

^ And if things had gone a little better, a fifth in Scarborough-Rouge Park.  I saw Felicia Samuel speak yesterday and was pretty impressed.  But it seems like the NDP didn't target that riding and put few resources there. 

[King of Kensington]

My feeling is the NDP won a plurality of the Black vote.

Didn't Ford once claim that he was as popular among Black Torontonians as Obama is among Black Americans?

[Hatman 🍁]

My feeling is the NDP won a plurality of the Black vote.

Didn't Ford once claim that he was as popular among Black Torontonians as Obama is among Black Americans?

Well, they certainly voted for him in 2014. Possibly more than any other ethnic group.

[King of Kensington]

Municipally yes (though nowhere nearly 96%), but the PC vote in YSW and HRBC was about half Ford's municipal vote share in YSW and HRBC. 

[adma]

^ And if things had gone a little better, a fifth in Scarborough-Rouge Park.  I saw Felicia Samuel speak yesterday and was pretty impressed.  But it seems like the NDP didn't target that riding and put few resources there. 

Among competitive black NDP candidates, also don't forget Monique Hughes--the surprisingly strong 2nd place candidate in Ajax.

[King of Kensington]

From York South-Weston, the white ethnic Italian area of the north vs. the heavily Black Weston-Mount Dennis in the heart of the riding.

Pelmo Park and Maple Leaf:

PC  2,586  39.2%
Liberal  2,276  34.5%
NDP  1,571  23.8%

Weston and Mount Dennis:

NDP  3,114  40.7%
PC  2,376  31.1%
Liberal  1,906  24.9%

[King of Kensington]

Among competitive black NDP candidates, also don't forget Monique Hughes--the surprisingly strong 2nd place candidate in Ajax.

I don't know Ajax well enough to know where the Black population is concentrated, or whether it's really possible to isolate the Black vote there or whether they're too mixed in with other ethnicities.

[Njall]

Among competitive black NDP candidates, also don't forget Monique Hughes--the surprisingly strong 2nd place candidate in Ajax.

I don't know Ajax well enough to know where the Black population is concentrated, or whether it's really possible to isolate the Black vote there or whether they're too mixed in with other ethnicities.

It doesn't look like it's super concentrated, but according to census mapper, Census Tract 5350620.04 (bordered by Ravenscroft Road, Rossland Road West, Church Street North, and Delaney Drive) has the highest black population of any census tract in Ajax, at 31% of the population.

[DL]

The NDP could very easily have had four more Black MPPs, not only did Felicia Samuel lose narrowly in Scarborough-Rouge, but there were also relatively narrow losses by Black candidates in Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge and Mississauga-Malton

[King of Kensington]

Interesting that the majority of NDP candidates in the K-W-C area were Black.

[King of Kensington]

Eglinton-Lawrence:

Dufferin-Lawrence area

Liberal  2,175  41%
PC  1,944  36.6%
NDP  1,016  19.1%

Briar Hill-Belgravia

Liberal  1,783  39.4%
PC  1,392  30.8%
NDP  1,200  26.5%

Upper Forest Hill

Liberal  1,504  38.3%
PC   1,445  36.8%
NDP  867  22.1%

Bathurst-Glencairn area

PC  2,234  58.8%
Liberal  1,041  27.4%
NDP  427  11.2%

Lawrence Heights

NDP  393  37.1%
Liberal  384  36.3%
PC  238  22.5%

Lawrence Manor

PC  1,372  41.1%
Liberal  1,182  35.2%
NDP  683  20.5%

Ledbury Park

PC  2,065  55.7%
Liberal  1,125  30.3%
NDP  424  11.4%

Old Yonge area

PC  1,257  43.3%
Liberal  1,205  41.5%
NDP  356  12.3%

North Toronto

Liberal  5,340  48.1%
PC  3,349  30.2%
NDP  1,997  18%