Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[mileslunn]

      PC   NDP   Liberal   Green   Total
                  
Brant County                  
                  
Brant                  
                  
Brantford-Brant      10,366   7,492   1,925   1,068   21,282
Cambridge      280   125   73   46   526
Oxford      1,161   442   63   71   1,774
      11,807   8,059   2,061   1,185   23,582
      0.50068   0.34174   0.08740   0.05025   
                  
Brantford      11,580   13,988   2,992   1,451   31,165
      0.371571   0.44884   0.096005   0.046559   
                  
Bruce County                  
                  
Arran-Elderslie      2,048   774   307   141   3,412
      0.600234   0.22685   0.089977   0.041325   
                  
Brockton      2,430   1,159   601   166   4,423
      0.549401   0.26204   0.135881   0.037531   
                  
Huron-Kinloss      2,130   1,424   813   121   4,558
      0.4673102   0.3124177   0.1783677   0.0265467   
                  
Kincardine      975   513   296   57   1,873
      0.520555   0.27389   0.158035   0.030432   
                  
Northern Bruce Peninsula      1,100   595   283   117   2,135
      0.515222482   0.278688525   0.132552693   0.054800937   
                  
Saugeen Shores      2,964   1,853   2,121   210   7,222
      0.410412628   0.256577125   0.29368596   0.029077818   
                  
South Bruce      1,634   479   258   79   2,489
      0.65648855   0.192446766   0.103656087   0.031739654   
                  
Southern Bruce Peninsula      1,954   766   445   145   3,365
      0.580684   0.227637444   0.132243685   0.043090639   
                  
Dufferin County                  
                  
Amaranth      1,440   434   243   321   2,475
      0.581818   0.175353535   0.098181818   0.12969697   
                  
East Garafraxa      1,162   413   217   306   2,129
      0.545796   0.193987788   0.101925787   0.14372945   
                  
Grand Valley      945   310   143   197   1,639
      0.576571   0.189139719   0.087248322   0.120195241   
                  
Melancthon      279   81   52   46   474
      0.58861   0.170886076   0.109704641   0.097046414   
                  
Mono      3,171   977   716   1,053   5,983
      0.53000   0.163296005   0.119672405   0.175998663   
                  
Mulmur      551   214   115   204   1,110
      0.49640   0.192792793   0.103603604   0.183783784   
                  
Orangeville      4,386   1,816   996   1,684   9,010
      0.48679   0.201553829   0.11054384   0.186903441   
                  
Shelburne      1,214   501   226   279   2,266
      0.53575   0.22109444   0.099735216   0.123124448   
                  
Durham Regional Municipality                  
      19,078   15,130   12,607   1,224   48,860
Ajax      0.390462546   0.309660254   0.258022923   0.025051167   
                  
Brock      3,160   1,344   461   297   5,405
      0.584643848   0.248658649   0.085291397   0.054949121   
                  
Clarington                  
                  
Durham      16,106   10,991   5,837   1,327   34,496
Northumberland-Peterborough South      4,037   2,264   1,125   414   7,977
      20,143   13,255   6,962   1,741   42,473
      0.474254   0.312081   0.163916   0.040991   
                  
Oshawa                  
                  
Durham      5,057   4,300   1,873   415   11,727
Oshawa      22,694   24,301   4,278   1,957   54,243
      27,751   28,601   6,151   2,372   65,970
      0.4206609   0.4335456   0.0932394   0.0359557   
                  
Pickering      15,169   12,932   8,230   1,391   38,239
      0.39669   0.33819   0.21523   0.03638   
                  
Scugog      5,724   2,795   1,867   530   10,958
      0.522358   0.25506   0.170378   0.04837   
                  
Uxbridge      5,610   2,710   1,594   587   10,646
      0.526958   0.25456   0.149728   0.05514   
                  
Whitby      26,471   20,562   7,427   1,958   57,186
      0.462893   0.35956   0.129874   0.03424   
                  
Elgin County                  
                  
Aylmer      1,116   419   102   67   1,743
      0.640275   0.24039   0.058520   0.03844   
                  
Bayham      1,573   623   119   98   2,451
      0.641779   0.25418   0.048552   0.03998   
                  
Central Elgin      3,708   2,047   484   249   6,589
      0.562756   0.31067   0.073456   0.03779   
                  
Dutton/Dunwich      849   435   75   63   1,441
      0.589174   0.30187   0.052047   0.04372   
                  
Malahide      2,683   744   127   114   3,732
      0.718917   0.19936   0.034030   0.03055   
                  
St. Thomas      7,414   5,264   1,146   645   14,639
      0.506455   0.35959   0.078284   0.04406   
                  
Southwold      1,906   958   243   136   3,265
      0.583767   0.29342   0.074426   0.04165   
                  
West Elgin      1,128   888   134   88   2,284
      0.493870   0.38879   0.058669   0.03853   
                  
Essex County                  
                  
Amherstburg      3,113   3,922   416   284   7,735
      0.402456367   0.507045895   0.053781513   0.036716225   
                  
Essex      3,877   4,348   406   332   8,963
      0.432556064   0.485105433   0.045297333   0.037041169   
                  
Kingsville      4,459   3,484   464   275   8,682
      0.513591338   0.401290025   0.053443907   0.031674729   
                  
Lakeshore                  
                  
Chatham-Kent-Leamington      764   791   96   56   1,717
Essex      5,240   6,722   744   427   13,133
      6004   7513   840   483   14850
      0.404309764   0.505925926   0.056565657   0.032525253   
                  
LaSalle      5,200   6,075   757   513   12,545
      0.414507772   0.484256676   0.060342766   0.040892786   
                  
Leamington      4,817   2,402   754   261   8,319
      0.579035942   0.288736627   0.090635894   0.031373963   
                  
Pelee Island      42   37   5   8   95
      0.442105263   0.389473684   0.052631579   0.084210526   
                  
Tecumseh      2,989   5,001   688   357   9,149
      0.3267024   0.5466171   0.0751995   0.0390207   
                  
Windsor                  
                  
Windsor-Tecumseh      7,434   17,295   2,305   1,393   29,039
Windsor West      11,073   20,276   5,762   1,393   38,939
      18,507   37,571   8,067   2,786   67,978
      0.272250   0.552694   0.118671   0.040984   
                  
Frontenac County                  
                  
Central Frontenac      1,498   1,099   410   124   3,201
      0.467978757   0.343330209   0.128084973   0.038737894   
                  
Frontenac Islands      297   286   319   54   962
      0.308731809   0.297297297   0.331600832   0.056133056   
                  
Kingston      11,498   18,082   12,258   3,002   45,199
      1,203   1,132   530   240   3,191
      12,701   19,214   12,788   3,242   48,390
      0.2624716   0.3970655   0.2642695   0.0669973   
                  
North Frontenac      517   181   67   26   805
      0.6422360   0.2248447   0.0832298   0.0322981   
                  
South Frontenac      2,574   2,753   901   422   6,803
      0.3783625   0.4046744   0.1324416   0.0620315   
                  
Grey County                  
                  
Blue Mountains      1,804   974   845   292   3,946
      0.457172   0.246832   0.214141   0.073999   
                  
Chatsworth      1,546   565   228   196   2,642
      0.585163   0.21385   0.086298   0.074186   
                  
Georgian Bluffs      3,456   1,467   763   254   6,061
      0.57020   0.24204   0.125886817   0.041907276   
                  
Grey Highlands      2,131   824   334   245   3,659
      0.58240   0.22520   0.09128   0.066958   
                  
Hanover      768   416   181   96   1,532
      0.50131   0.27154   0.11815   0.062663   
                  
Meaford      3,170   1,599   851   304   6,055
      0.52353   0.26408   0.140545004   0.050206441   
                  
Owen Sound      2,858   1,763   1,040   32   6,133
      0.46600   0.28746   0.16957   0.00520   
                  
Southgate      1,558   529   213   263   2,633
      0.59172   0.200911508   0.080896316   0.099886062   
                  
West Grey      2,699   1,015   450   520   4,958
      0.54437   0.204719645   0.090762404   0.104881   
                  
Haldimand-Norfolk                  
                  
Haldimand      11,929   5,899   1,831   497   21,208
      0.56248   0.278149755   0.086335345   0.023434553   
                  
Norfolk      14,848   6,858   2,416   1,217   25,810
      0.57528   0.265710965   0.093607129   0.047152267   
                  
Haliburton County                  
                  
Algonquin Highlands      183   88   37   42   355
      0.515493   0.247887324   0.104225352   0.118309859   
                  
Dysart et Al      1,451   899   267   120   2,799
      0.518399   0.321186138   0.095391211   0.042872454   
                  
Highlands East      866   456   125   61   1,533
      0.5649054   0.297455969   0.081539465   0.039791259   
                  
Minden Hills      2,185   1,149   378   159   3,948
      0.5534448   0.291033435   0.095744681   0.040273556   
                  
Halton Regional Municipality                  
                  
Burlington                  
                  
Burlington      25,502   18,062   15,515   2,828   63,062
Milton      1,181   429   465   178   2,273
Oakville North-Burlington      11,009   6,129   5,376   918   23,276
      37,692   24,620   21,356   3,924   88,611
      0.425365   0.277844   0.241008   0.044283   
                  
Halton Hills      14,068   6,020   3,824   1,764   25,823
      0.544786   0.233126   0.148085   0.068311   
                  
Milton      16,139   8,812   11,708   2,035   39,179
      0.41192986   0.22491641   0.29883356   0.05194109   
                  
Oakville                  
                  
Oakville      24,598   9,277   20,122   1,976   56,267
Oakville North-Burlington      13,363   6,741   7,488   1,036   28,927
      37,961   16,018   27,610   3,012   85,194
      0.44558   0.18802   0.32408   0.03535   
                  
Hastings County                  
                  
Bancroft      1,346   719   199   84   2,375
      0.566736842   0.302736842   0.083789474      
                  
Belleville                  
                  
Bay of Quinte      6,051   5,152   2,168   560   14,138
Hastings-Lennox and Addington      1,848   1,022   405   122   3,426
      7,899   6,174   2,573   682   17,564
      0.4497267   0.3515145   0.1464928   0.0388294   
                  
Carlow/Mayo      250   91   28   16   392
      0.637755   0.232143   0.071429   0.040816   
                  
Centre Hastings      1,888   805   266   120   3,110
      0.607074   0.258842   0.085531   0.038585   
                  
Faraday      140   85   18   16   261
      0.536398   0.325670   0.068966   0.061303   
                  
Hastings Highlands      666   408   70   47   1,202
      0.554077   0.339434   0.058236   0.039101   
                  
Limerick      74   32   2   6   114
      0.649123   0.280702   0.017544   0.052632   
                  
Madoc      205   106   29   21   364
      0.563187   0.291209   0.079670   0.057692   
                  
Marmora and Lake      1,170   469   152   71   1,895
      0.617414   0.247493   0.080211   0.037467   
                  
Quinte West      9,378   5,140   2,261   648   17,832
      0.525908479   0.28824585   0.126794527   0.036339166   
                  
Stirling-Rawdon      497   194   58   28   781
      0.636363636   0.248399488   0.074263764   0.035851472   
                  
Tudor and Cashel      206   93   7   14   321
      0.641744548   0.289719626   0.021806854   0.043613707   
                  
Tweed      1,451   769   274   116   2,643
      0.548997351   0.290957246   0.103670072   0.043889519   
                  
Tyendinaga      1,168   980   325   110   2,626
      0.44478294   0.373191165   0.123762376   0.041888804   
                  
Wollaston      259   153   39   29   483
      0.536231884   0.316770186   0.080745342   0.060041408   
                  
Huron County                  
                  
Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh      1,575   737   222   99   2,664
      0.5912162   0.276651652   0.083333333   0.037162162   
                  
Bluewater      2,215   1,310   383   174   4,143
      0.5346367   0.316195993   0.092445088   0.041998552   
                  
Central Huron      2,635   2,074   551   217   5,541
      0.4755459   0.3743007   0.0994405   0.0391626   
                  
Goderich      1,159   1,334   338   106   2,950
      0.3928814   0.45220339   0.114576271   0.035932203   
                  
Howick      897   260   97   51   1,335
      0.6719101   0.194756554   0.072659176   0.038202247   
                  
Huron East      1,942   1,059   318   178   3,540
      0.5485876   0.299152542   0.089830508   0.050282486   
                  
Morris-Turnberry      1,809   655   237   96   2,819
      0.6417169   0.232351898   0.084072366   0.034054629   
                  
North Huron      389   132   47   19   593
      0.6559865   0.222596965   0.07925801   0.032040472   
                  
South Huron      2,236   1,123   377   138   3,930
      0.5689567   0.2857506   0.0959288   0.0351145   
                  
Lambton County                  
                  
Brooke-Alvinston      444   393   37   18   906
      0.490066   0.433775   0.040839   0.019868   
                  
Dawn-Euphemia      737   254   28   23   1,054
      0.699241   0.240987   0.026565   0.021822   
                  
Enniskillen      1,516   491   38   124   2,197
      0.690032   0.223487   0.017296   0.056441   
                  
Lambton Shores      2,954   2,336   418   200   6,002
      0.4921693   0.3892036   0.0696435   0.0333222   
                  
Oil Springs      612   148   38   14   817
      0.7490820   0.1811506   0.0465116   0.0171359   
                  
Petrolia      1,527   677   58   129   2,410
      0.6336100   0.2809129   0.0240664   0.0535270   
                  
Plympton-Wyoming      2,415   1,102   174   142   3,883
      0.621942   0.283801   0.044811   0.036570   
                  
Point Edward      458   422   44   30   971
      0.4716787   0.4346035   0.0453141   0.0308960   
                  
Sarnia      13,780   12,048   1,355   1,018   28,753
      0.479254   0.419017   0.047126   0.035405   
                  
St. Clair      4,343   1,989   229   252   6,930
      0.626696   0.287013   0.033045   0.036364   
                  
Warwick      1,362   768   66   60   2,284
      0.5963222   0.3362522   0.0288967   0.0262697   
                  
Lanark County                  
                  
Beckwith      2,706   1,043   412   199   4,462
      0.60645   0.23375   0.09234   0.04460   
                  
Carleton Place      2,696   1,376   512   217   4,905
      0.5496432   0.2805301   0.1043833   0.0442406   
                  
Drummond/North Elmsley      2,284   1,162   300   181   3,990
      0.5724311   0.2912281   0.0751880   0.0453634   
                  
Lanark Highlands      1,794   737   151   150   2,886
      0.621622   0.255371   0.052322   0.051975   
                  
Mississippi Mills      3,939   1,919   839   286   7,112
      0.5538526   0.2698256   0.1179696   0.0402137   
                  
Montague      1,283   545   194   112   2,188
      0.586380   0.249086   0.088665   0.051188   
                  
Perth      593   516   141   60   1,324
      0.447885   0.389728   0.106495   0.045317   
                  
Smith's Falls      1,278   743   254   102   2,445
      0.522699   0.303885   0.103885   0.041718   
                  
Tay Valley      1,062   591   130   102   1,921
      0.55283706   0.30765226   0.06767309   0.05309735   
                  
Leeds and Grenville United Counties                  
                  
Athens      1,121   270   186   55   1,644
      0.68187348   0.16423358   0.11313869   0.03345499   
                  
Augusta      2,475   532   392   128   3,555
      0.69620253   0.14964838   0.11026723   0.03600563   
                  
Brockville      4,675   1,543   1,272   368   7,897
      0.59199696   0.19539065   0.16107383   0.04659997   
                  
Edwardsburgh/Cardinal      2,318   505   333   134   3,323
      0.69756244   0.15197111   0.10021065   0.04032501   
                  
Elizabeth/Kiteley      3,168   880   582   219   4,880
      0.64918033   0.18032787   0.11926230   0.04487705   
                  
Front of Yonge      750   226   128   62   1,174
      0.6388416   0.1925043   0.1090290   0.0528109   
                  
Gananoque      1,253   673   426   132   2,510
      0.49920319   0.26812749   0.16972112   0.05258964   
                  
Leeds and Thousand Islands      2,324   971   528   240   4,093
      0.56779868   0.23723430   0.12900073   0.05863670   
                  
Merrickville-Wolford      794   366   230   95   1,500
      0.529333   0.244000   0.153333   0.063333   
                  
North Grenville      4,821   1,534   1,055   430   7,911
      0.609405   0.193907   0.133359   0.054355   
                  
Prescott      909   285   200   79   1,490
      0.61006711   0.19127517   0.13422819   0.05302013   
                  
Rideau Lakes      2,918   1,163   622   279   5,025
      0.58069652   0.23144279   0.12378109   0.05552239   
                  
Westport      200   81   51   9   346
      0.5780347   0.2341040   0.1473988   0.0260116   
                  
Lennox and Addington County                  
                  
Addington Highlands      621   267   79   35   1,015
      0.61182266   0.263054187   0.077832512   0.034482759   
                  
Greater Nepanee      2,817   2,164   766   290   6,149
      0.458123272   0.351927143   0.124573101   0.04716214   
                  
Loyalist      2,477   2,926   1,236   386   7,129
      0.347454061   0.410436246   0.17337635   0.054145041   
                  
Stone Mills      1,002   915   345   116   2,410
      0.415767635   0.37966805   0.143153527   0.04813278   
                  
Muskoka District                  
                  
Bracebridge      4,007   1,844   730   2,389   9,065
      0.442029785   0.203419746   0.080529509   0.263541092   
                  
Georgian Bay      603   238   121   86   1,069
      0.564078578   0.222637979   0.113189897   0.080449018   
                  
Gravenhurst      2,547   1,255   585   1,102   5,547
      0.459167117   0.226248423   0.105462412   0.198665946   
                  
Huntsville      4,073   1,723   613   2,513   9,004
      0.452354509   0.191359396   0.068080853   0.279098179   
                  
Lakes of Bays      718   272   143   346   1,489
      0.482202821   0.182672935   0.096037609   0.232370719   
                  
Muskoka Lakes      1,056   360   165   386   1,999
      0.528264132   0.180090045   0.082541271   0.193096548   
                  
Middlesex County                  
                  
Adelaide-Metcalfe      382   140   25   15   572
      0.667832168   0.244755245   0.043706294   0.026223776   
                  
London                  
                  
Elgin-Middlesex-London      3,043   2,256   624   200   6,182
London      47,353   83,673   18,145   6,754   158,500
      50,396   85,929   18,769   6,954   164,682
      0.306020   0.521787   0.113971   0.04223   
                  
Lucan-Biddulph      1,156   742   149   89   2,159
      0.535433   0.343678   0.069013   0.04122   
                  
Middlesex Centre      4,912   3,115   730   336   9,186
      0.5347268   0.3391030   0.0794688   0.0365774   
                  
North Middlesex      1,612   713   137   105   2,587
      0.623116   0.27561   0.05296   0.04059   
                  
Southwest Middlesex      1,460   805   143   63   2,502
      0.583533   0.32174   0.05715   0.02518   
                  
Strathroy-Caradoc      4,364   2,791   564   330   8,182
      0.533366   0.341115   0.068932   0.04033   
                  
Thames Centre      3,699   2,185   488   284   6,733
      0.549384   0.324521   0.072479   0.04218   
                  
Niagara Regional Municipality                  
                  
Fort Erie      4,463   5,581   804   414   11,337
      0.393667   0.492282   0.070918   0.03652   
                  
Grimsby      5,442   4,088   1,448   713   11,849
      0.459279   0.345008   0.122204   0.06017   
                  
Lincoln      5,802   2,875   1,069   644   10,500
      0.552571   0.273810   0.101810   0.06133   
                  
Niagara Falls      11,251   18,300   3,204   1,231   34,276
      0.328247   0.533901   0.093476   0.03591   
                  
Niagara on the Lake      3,880   3,977   1,111   313   9,339
      0.415462   0.425849   0.118963   0.033515   
                  
Pelham      4,603   3,012   1,178   473   9,374
      0.491039   0.321314   0.125667   0.05046   
                  
Port Colborne      3,867   4,087   1,030   332   9,715
      0.39804   0.42069   0.10602   0.03417   
                  
St. Catherines                  
                  
Niagara Centre      2,398   2,950   826   289   6,575
Niagara West      370   177   68   37   657
St. Catherines      17,353   18,911   12,671   1,923   51,650
      20,121   22,038   13,565   2,249   58,882
      0.341717   0.374274   0.230376   0.038195   
                  
Thorold      2,947   4,108   913   301   8,473
      0.347811   0.484834   0.107754   0.035525   
                  
Wainfleet      1,906   825   234   155   3,144
      0.606234   0.262405   0.074427   0.049300   
                  
Welland      7,708   8,681   2,418   760   20,072
      0.384018   0.432493   0.120466   0.037864   
                  
West Lincoln      4,933   2,193   646   474   8,364
      0.589790   0.262195   0.077236   0.056671   
                  
Nipissing District                  
                  
Bonfield      414   309   79   26   839
      0.493445   0.368296   0.094160   0.030989   
                  
Calvin      90   45   7   5   148
      0.608108   0.304054   0.047297   0.033784   
                  
Chisholm      612   299   57   28   1,020
      0.600000   0.293137   0.055882   0.027451   
                  
East Ferris      1,064   666   131   33   1,940
      0.548454   0.343299   0.067526   0.017010   
                  
Nipissing Unorganized                  
                  
Nipissing      271   204   32   15   533
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke      521   104   52   23   683
Timiskaming-Cochrane      123   114   33   18   302
      915   422   117   56   1,518
      0.602767   0.277997   0.077075   0.036891   
                  
North Bay      9,663   8,327   1,549   638   20,693
      0.466970   0.402407   0.074856   0.030832   
                  
Papineau-Cameron      590   266   82   27   986
      0.598377   0.269777   0.083164   0.027383   
                  
South Algonquin      323   146   32   15   517
      0.624758   0.282398   0.061896   0.029014   
                  
Temigami      130   203   21   5   397
      0.327456   0.511335   0.052897   0.012594   
                  
West Nipissing      529   1,295   391   110   2,448
      0.216095   0.529003   0.159722   0.044935   
                  
Northumberland County                  
                  
Alnwick/Haldimand      1,350   661   653   134   2,844
      0.474684   0.232419   0.229606   0.047117   
                  
Brighton      2,920   1,364   2,056   296   6,703
      0.435626   0.203491   0.306728   0.044159   
                  
Cobourg      2,157   1,554   1,867   323   5,975
      0.361004   0.260084   0.312469   0.054059   
                  
Cramahe      1,400   666   682   140   2,941
      0.476029   0.226454   0.231894   0.047603   
                  
Hamilton      3,708   1,833   2,020   319   7,985
      0.464371   0.229555   0.252974   0.039950   
                  
Port Hope      3,600   2,009   2,292   369   8,395
      0.428827   0.239309   0.273020   0.043955   
                  
Trent Hills      2,985   1,630   1,322   323   6,353
      0.469857   0.256572   0.208091   0.050842   
                  
Oxford County                  
                  
Blandford-Blenheim      1,928   920   292   245   3,460
      0.557225   0.265896   0.084393   0.070809   
                  
East Zorra-Tavistock      2,449   1,166   326   168   4,193
      0.584069   0.278083   0.077749   0.040067   
                  
Ingersoll      2,349   1,707   325   237   4,732
      0.496407   0.360735   0.068681   0.050085   
                  
Norwich      4,633   1,760   342   288   7,218
      0.641868   0.243835   0.047382   0.039900   
                  
Southwest Oxford      1,630   577   104   63   2,476
      0.658320   0.233037   0.042003   0.025444   
                  
Tilsonburg      2,904   1,721   382   195   5,297
      0.548235   0.324901   0.072116   0.036813   
                  
Woodstock      6,577   4,670   1,067   612   13,346
      0.492807   0.349918   0.079949   0.045856   
                  
Zorra      2,883   1,543   304   238   5,119
      0.563196   0.301426   0.059387   0.046493   

[mileslunn]

                  
Parry Sound District                  
                  
Armour      130   53   15   41   243
      0.534979   0.218107   0.061728   0.168724   
                  
Burk's Falls      689   300   88   170   1,273
      0.541241   0.235664   0.069128   0.133543   
                  
Callander      1,327   714   159   46   2,296
      0.577962   0.310976   0.069251   0.020035   
                  
Carling      293   97   51   78   531
      0.551789   0.182674   0.096045   0.146893   
                  
Joly      283   167   42   53   554
      0.510830   0.301444   0.075812   0.095668   
                  
Kearney      238   108   39   57   447
      0.532438   0.241611   0.087248   0.127517   
                  
Machar      178   85   29   33   330
      0.539394   0.257576   0.087879   0.100000   
                  
Magnetawan      337   152   46   86   628
      0.536624   0.242038   0.073248   0.136943   
                  
McDougall      233   126   36   79   479
      0.486430   0.263048   0.075157   0.164927   
                  
McKellar      267   109   37   45   465
      0.574194   0.234409   0.079570   0.096774   
                  
McMurrich/Monteith      214   88   38   57   402
      0.532338   0.218905   0.094527   0.141791   
                  
Nipissing      469   173   37   23   719
      0.652295   0.240612   0.051460   0.031989   
                  
Perry      614   203   52   206   1,092
      0.562271   0.185897   0.047619   0.188645   
                  
Parry Sound      1,914   1,075   369   669   4,076
      0.469578   0.263739   0.090530   0.164132   
                  
Parry Sound Unorganized      657   285   96   55   1,113
      0.590296   0.256065   0.086253   0.049416   
                  
Powassan      1,157   424   95   42   1,768
      0.65441   0.23982   0.05373   0.02376   
                  
Ryerson      103   49   23   29   206
      0.50000   0.23786   0.11165   0.14078   
                  
Seguin      584   280   111   185   1,182
      0.49408   0.23689   0.09391   0.15651   
                  
South River      565   308   64   84   1,035
      0.54589   0.29758   0.06184   0.08116   
                  
Strong      326   131   41   76   581
      0.561102   0.225473   0.070568   0.130809   
                  
Sundridge      655   280   76   136   1,162
      0.56368   0.24096   0.06540   0.11704   
                  
The Archipelago      343   139   65   103   664
      0.51657   0.20934   0.09789   0.15512   
                  
Whitestone      246   121   50   32   451
      0.54545   0.26829   0.11086   0.07095   
                  
Peel Regional Municipality                  
                  
Brampton      70,417   72,755   34,705   5,390   188,377
      0.373808904   0.386220186   0.184231621   0.028612835   
                  
Mississauga      113,787   69,628   75,121   8,067   273,751
      0.415658756   0.254347929   0.274413609   0.029468386   
                  
Caledon      14,471   5,823   3,768   2,404   26,915
      0.537655582   0.216347761   0.139996285   0.089318224   
                  
Perth County                  
                  
North Perth      3,291   1,053   403   331   5,165
      0.637173282   0.203872217   0.078025169   0.064085189   
                  
Perth East      2,818   1,286   564   307   5,071
      0.555708933   0.253598896   0.111220667   0.060540327   
                  
Perth South      534   215   75   47   887
      0.602029312   0.242390079   0.084554679   0.052987599   
                  
St. Mary's      2,072   1,515   432   244   4,332
      0.478301016   0.349722992   0.099722992   0.056325023   
                  
Stratford      4,594   6,141   1,841   815   13,583
      0.338216889   0.452109254   0.135537068   0.060001472   
                  
West Perth      2,680   900   339   151   4,135
      0.648125756   0.217654172   0.081983071   0.036517533   
                  
Peterborough County                  
                  
Asphodel-Norwood      818   472   324   77   1,719
      0.475858057   0.274578243   0.188481675   0.044793485   
                  
Cavan Monaghan      2,481   1,243   399   209   4,412
      0.562330009   0.281731641   0.090435177   0.047370807   
                  
Duoro-Dummer      1,167   671   569   80   2,501
      0.466613355   0.268292683   0.227508996   0.031987205   
                  
Havelock-Belmont-Meuthen      1,212   542   380   88   2,240
      0.541071429   0.241964286   0.169642857   0.039285714   
                  
North Kawartha      676   347   251   59   1,345
      0.50260223   0.257992565   0.1866171   0.043866171   
                  
Otonabee-South Monaghan      1,874   1,063   681   176   3,870
      0.484237726   0.274677003   0.175968992   0.045478036   
                  
Peterborough      11,221   12,665   8,662   1,173   33,918
      0.330827289   0.373400554   0.255380624   0.034583407   
                  
Selwyn      5,217   3,277   2,782   363   11,708
      0.445592757   0.27989409   0.237615306   0.031004441   
                  
Trent Lakes      1,400   668   518   78   2,684
      0.521609538   0.248882265   0.192995529   0.029061103   
                  
Prescott and Russell United Counties                  
                  
Alfred and Plantagenet      1,460   1,435   1,179   134   4,346
      0.335941095   0.330188679   0.271283939   0.03083295   
                  
Casselman      246   138   274   26   715
      0.344055944   0.193006993   0.383216783   0.036363636   
                  
Champlain      1,127   783   757   70   2,801
      0.402356301   0.27954302   0.270260621   0.024991075   
                  
Clarence-Rockland      3,709   2,134   3,260   304   9,670
      0.383557394   0.220682523   0.337125129   0.031437435   
                  
East Hawkesbury      280   220   213   25   760
      0.368421053   0.289473684   0.280263158   0.032894737   
                  
Hawkesbury      722   706   1,078   84   2,657
      0.27173504   0.26571321   0.405720738   0.031614603   
                  
Russell      3,851   1,424   2,468   226   8,113
      0.474670282   0.175520769   0.304203131      
                  
The Nation      2,267   1,156   1,627   153   5,390
      0.420593692   0.214471243   0.301855288   0.0283859   
                  
Renfrew County                  
                  
Admaston-Bromley      1,937   331   167   53   2,552
      0.759012539   0.129702194   0.065438871   0.020768025   
                  
Arnprior      3,018   778   541   154   4,543
      0.664318732   0.171252476   0.119084306   0.033898305   
                  
Bonnecherre Valley      1,473   292   225   58   2,066
      0.712971926   0.141335915   0.108906099   0.028073572   
                  
Brudenell, Lyndoch & Raglan      592   82   27   35   744
      0.795698925   0.110215054   0.036290323   0.047043011   
                  
Deep River      917   609   420   61   2,036
      0.450392927   0.299115914   0.206286837   0.029960707   
                  
Greater Madawaska      882   182   143   45   1,270
      0.694488189   0.143307087   0.112598425   0.035433071   
                  
Head, Clara & Maria      72   31   10   0   116
      0.620689655   0.267241379   0.086206897   0   
                  
Horton      1,126   229   127   41   1,568
      0.718112245   0.146045918   0.080994898   0.026147959   
                  
Killaloe, Hagarty & Richards      853   193   66   49   1,175
      0.725957447   0.164255319   0.056170213   0.041702128   
                  
Laurentian Hills      871   251   174   49   1,383
      0.629790311   0.181489516   0.125813449   0.035430224   
                  
Laurentian Valley      1,903   470   280   78   2,757
      0.690243018   0.170475154   0.101559666   0.028291621   
                  
Madawaska Valley      1,868   403   132   64   2,485
      0.751710262   0.162173038   0.053118712   0.025754527   
                  
McNab/Braeside      2,326   510   308   105   3,290
      0.706990881   0.155015198   0.093617021   0.031914894   
                  
North Algona-Wilberforce      917   179   84   31   1,221
      0.751023751   0.146601147   0.068796069   0.025389025   
                  
Pembroke      3,052   885   562   122   4,672
      0.653253425   0.18942637   0.120291096   0.026113014   
                  
Petawawa      3,506   934   435   237   5,190
      0.675529865   0.179961464   0.083815029   0.04566474   
                  
Renfrew      1,729   419   230   54   2,473
      0.699150829   0.169429842   0.093004448   0.021835827   
                  
Whitewater Region      1,715   345   189   75   2,352
      0.729166667   0.146683673   0.080357143   0.031887755   
                  
Simcoe County                  
                  
Adjala-Tosorontio      2,646   834   474   375   4,366
      0.606046725   0.19102153   0.108566193   0.085890976   
                  
Barrie                  
                  
Barrie-Innisfil      11,929   7,789   3,243   1,911   25,169
Barrie-Springwater-Oro Medonte      9,185   7,252   3,197   3,198   23,284
      21,114   15,041   6,440   5,109   48,453
      0.435762   0.310425   0.13291   0.105442   
                  
Bradford-West Gwillimbury      7,683   2,810   2,039   577   13,219
      0.581209   0.212573   0.15425   0.043649   
                  
Clearview      3,844   1,272   636   438   6,242
      0.615828   0.203781   0.10189   0.070170   
                  
Collingwood      4,596   2,542   1,975   732   9,898
      0.464336   0.256820   0.19954   0.073954   
                  
Essa      4,601   1,603   755   577   7,615
      0.604202   0.210506   0.09915   0.075772   
                  
Innisfil      8,263   3,760   1,724   1,087   15,067
      0.54841707   0.249552001   0.114422247   0.072144422   
                  
Midland      2,686   2,067   1,602   420   6,810
      0.394419971   0.303524229   0.235242291   0.061674009   
                  
New Tecumseth      8,639   3,049   2,035   1,032   14,861
      0.581320234   0.205167889   0.136935603   0.06944351   
                  
Orillia      6,773   4,530   2,343   981   14,712
      0.460372485   0.307911909   0.159257749   0.066680261   
                  
Oro Medonte                  
                  
Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater      3,266   1,489   775   696   6,317
Simcoe North      2,982   1,555   668   395   5,634
      6,248   3,044   1,443   1,091   11,951
      0.522801439   0.254706719   0.120743034   0.091289432   
                  
Penetanguishene      1,681   1,204   1,164   262   4,327
      0.388490871   0.278252831   0.269008551   0.060550035   
                  
Ramara      3,401   1,594   836   424   6,290
      0.540699523   0.253418124   0.13290938   0.067408585   
                  
Severn      2,854   1,195   609   364   5,056
      0.564477848   0.236352848   0.120450949   0.071993671   
                  
Springwater      4,321   1,921   939   692   7,995
      0.540462789   0.240275172   0.117448405   0.086554096   
                  
Tay      1,848   999   673   271   3,816
      0.48427673   0.261792453   0.176362683   0.071016771   
                  
Tiny      2,492   1,548   1,239   434   5,747
      0.43361754   0.269357926   0.215590743   0.075517661   
                  
Wasaga Beach      5,522   2,309   1,376   577   9,842
      0.561064824   0.234606787   0.139808982   0.058626295   
                  
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry UC                  
                  
Cornwall      7,104   3,970   2,239   564   14,005
      0.507247412   0.283470189   0.159871474   0.040271332   
                  
North Dundas      4,064   1,031   475   210   5,829
      0.697203637   0.176874249   0.081489106   0.036026763   
                  
North Glengarry      2,309   975   953   154   4,507
      0.512314178   0.216330153   0.211448857   0.03416907   
                  
North Stormont      2,480   598   366   106   3,581
      0.692543982   0.16699246   0.102206088   0.02960067   
                  
South Dundas      3,599   712   420   168   4,929
      0.730168391   0.144451207   0.085209982   0.034083993   
                  
South Glengarry      3,468   1,122   704   198   5,540
      0.62599278   0.202527076   0.127075812   0.035740072   
                  
South Stormont      3,166   1,031   495   198   4,921
      0.64336517   0.209510262   0.100589311   0.040235724   
                  
Waterloo Regional Municipality                  
                  
Cambridge                  
                  
Cambridge      13,884   12,919   9,140   2,452   38,798
Kitchener South-Hespeler      4,772   3,691   1,571   956   11,144
      18,656   16,610   10,711   3,408   49,942
      0.3735533   0.3325858   0.2144688   0.0682392   
                  
Kitchener                  
                  
Kitchener Centre      13,070   20,512   9,499   3,234   47,270
Kitchener-Conestoga      5,011   6,473   2,344   841   14,987
Kitchener South-Hespeler      9,856   10,275   3,945   1,958   26,483
Waterloo      706   715   172   103   1,725
      28,643   37,975   15,960   6,136   90,465
      0.31661969   0.41977560   0.17642182   0.06782734   
                  
North Dumfries      3,348   2,257   1,595   495   7,764
      0.43122102   0.29070067   0.205435343   0.063755796   
                  
Waterloo      14,726   24,003   5,698   2,314   47,223
      0.31183957   0.508290452   0.120661542   0.049001546   
                  
Wellesley      1,739   1,243   440   300   3,780
      0.4600529   0.3288360   0.1164021   0.0793651   
                  
Wilmot      3,743   3,414   1,316   722   9,331
      0.4011360   0.3658772   0.1410353   0.0773765   
                  
Woolwich      4,649   3,529   1,256   755   10,352
      0.4490920   0.3409003   0.1213292   0.0729328   
                  
Wellington County                  
                  
Centre Wellington      7,440   3,957   1,407   1,247   14,118
      0.526986825   0.280280493   0.099660008   0.088326958   
                  
Erin      3,329   1,297   647   615   5,915
      0.562806424   0.219273035   0.109382925   0.10397295   
                  
Guelph      14,084   13,928   6,537   29,082   64,576
      0.218099604   0.215683845   0.101229559   0.450353072   
                  
Guelph/Eramosa      3,169   1,413   806   833   6,262
      0.506068349   0.225646758   0.128712871   0.133024593   
                  
Mapleton      2,044   624   245   168   3,139
      0.651162791   0.198789423   0.078050335   0.053520229   
                  
Minto      2,106   879   338   263   3,694
      0.570113698   0.237953438   0.091499729   0.071196535   
                  
Puslinch      2,157   830   416   470   3,899
      0.553218774   0.212875096   0.106694024   0.120543729   
                  
Wellington North      2,288   879   319   257   3,854
      0.593668915   0.228074728   0.082771147   0.066683965   
                  
York Regional Municipality                  
                  
Aurora                  
                  
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill      8,200   3,187   3,642   573   15,867
Newmarket-Aurora      6,559   2,870   3,131   439   13,192
      14,759   6,057   6,773   1,012   29,059
      0.507898   0.208438   0.233078   0.034826   
                  
East Gwilimbury                  
                  
Newmarket-Aurora      308   152   141   24   635
York-Simcoe      6,019   2,322   1,683   552   10,683
      6,327   2,474   1,824   576   11,318
      0.55902   0.21859   0.16116   0.05089   
                  
Georgina      10,752   4,891   2,040   950   18,789
      0.57225   0.26031   0.10857   0.05056   
                  
King                  
                  
King-Vaughan      6,156   1,217   1,794   703   9,952
York-Simcoe      338   69   38   38   493
      6,494   1,286   1,832   741   10,445
      0.621733   0.123121   0.175395   0.070943   
                  
Markham                  
                  
Markham-Stouffville      14,329   6,846   8,390   1,175   31,228
Markham-Thornhill      18,943   8,010   9,160   859   36,972
Markham-Unionville      29,305   7,778   8,455   993   46,936
Thornhill      2,518   1,350   1,351   213   5,590
      65,095   23,984   27,356   3,240   120,726
      0.539196   0.198665   0.226596   0.026838   
                  
Newmarket      15,593   8,173   7,273   1,252   33,015
      0.4723005   0.2475541   0.2202938   0.0379222   
                  
Richmond Hill                  
                  
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill      14,719   4,236   5,096   524   24,951
Richmond Hill      22,224   7,490   12,108   1,248   43,371
      36,943   11,726   17,204   1,772   68,322
      0.540719   0.171628   0.251808   0.025936   
                  
Vaughan                  
                  
King-Vaughan      20,541   6,139   9,115   906   37,197
Thornhill      21,043   6,140   4,237   644   32,852
Vaughan-Woodbridge      21,687   6,254   13,742   972   42,946
      63,271   18,533   27,094   2,522   112,995
      0.559945   0.164016   0.239781   0.022320   
                  
Whitchurch-Stouffville      10,054   3,549   4,716   811   19,433
      0.517367365   0.182627489   0.242679977   0.041733134   

Otherwise would take forever to put things in neatly, so here is a copy and paste from the spreadsheet by municipalities for Southern Ontario.  In every municipality regardless of winner it goes from left to right, PC, NDP, Liberal, and Green otherwise by the order they came in provincewide.  If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet, just PM me and I can either on twitter or by e-mail forward a copy of the spreadsheet.  Municipalities are arranged by census division and then alphabetical order within each census division and census divisions done alphabetically.  I suspect the map will have a lot of blue and not much orange considering PCs dominated rural Southern Ontario.  Likewise haven't done an exact count, but looks like in the vast majority of municipalities the PCs got over 50% although obviously far more people live in the municipalities where they got under 50% than over.  Liberals only won three municipalities in Southern Ontario: Hawkesbury, Casselman, and Frontenac Islands.  Greens won only one.  NDP won multiple but mostly urban but you had a few mixed urban/rural near Kingston, Niagara peninsula, and Essex County although in each of those PCs had a strong second.  Of small towns, NDP won Goderich and almost won Perth while not sure if you would call it a small town per se, but NDP did win Stratford (which is not surprise as a very artsy town).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a map:



I realized Miles, you didn't include other, so this is really just a 4-party percentage map (not a big deal). Also, none of the CD calculations appear to include Indian Reserves (all of which appear white on this map). Miles, did you just not count them, or did you lump them in with the surrounding municipalities?

[Hatman 🍁]

Just noticed, Mattawa and Mattawan aren't on the list, but it looks like you've included them in Papineau-Cameron, as the megapoll covers all three municipalities. Mattawa is the largest of the three by population though.

[mileslunn]

On the Indian reserves I mostly didn't include, but I can go get those. All of them will be orange. For Mattawa, Mattawan, and Papineau-Cameron was a megapoll thus only included one. I will get you the Indian reserve ones tomorrow, all different shades of orange. Of the percentages, those are out of the total, didn't bother including other as it was very small. In fact the Northern Ontario Party was the only one to get any votes of significance. Jack Maclaren in Kanata-Carleton had the highest of the non-main parties and it was only 3.5 percent. Also looks like Brant might be a shade too light as PC's narrowly got over 50 percent there.

[King of Kensington]

So if Dundas was still a standalone county, it would have voted to the right of Renfrew.

[mileslunn]

So if Dundas was still a standalone county, it would have voted to the right of Renfrew.

I think so or very similar at least.  Glengarry has a sizeable Francophone population as does Stormont and Stormont also includes Cornwall thus why Tories don't run up the margins quite as high.  Also note Harper got almost 75% in Dundas county in 2011 while under 60% in Renfrew County mind you Hec Cloutier ran an as independent and as a former right leaning liberal he probably got some provincial PC votes.  Likewise John Yabasuki is very popular personally and very active in the community while Cheryl Gallant is quite controversial and usually is kept away from the public as she is known to say stupid things or make extreme remarks that won't cost her in her own riding but hurt the party elsewhere.  I would say part of the PCs best showing in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is not just it being the most conservative riding, but they have a very popular MPP.  You will notice that the PCs also generally did better in municipalities in Simcoe-Grey than other Simcoe county ones and likewise Haldimand-Norfolk went slightly more PC than adjacent ridings so having a popular MPP can add 5 to 10 points.

A popular one can also help with the NDP too.  I think Essex and Niagara Falls might have gone PC with a generic candidate or at least in the case of Niagara Falls would have been a lot closer, mind you I think in Niagara Falls most of the Tory federal, NDP provincial crossover voters are ones who vote for candidate not party.  I also think Niagara Falls would have gone Liberal federally in 2015 had Rob Nicholson not run.  Up north, I am pretty sure Kenora-Rainy River would have stayed NDP if Greg Rickford weren't the candidate and Nipissing might have been at least competitive if Vic Fideli weren't candidate although not sure NDP could win that riding, but certainly Liberals in 2014 could have if Vic Fideli was not the candidate.  Likewise in the 905 belt, I think Whitby-Oshawa in 2014 and Milton in 2015 only stayed Tory due to Christine Elliott and Lisa Raitt, would have gone Liberal otherwise.  In Thunder Bay, Liberals probably would have been in the teens not high 30s if it weren't for the two popular MPPs so the Liberal win of the Thunder Bay District is more due to candidate not party.

[lilTommy]

So if Dundas was still a standalone county, it would have voted to the right of Renfrew.

I think so or very similar at least.  Glengarry has a sizeable Francophone population as does Stormont and Stormont also includes Cornwall thus why Tories don't run up the margins quite as high.  Also note Harper got almost 75% in Dundas county in 2011 while under 60% in Renfrew County mind you Hec Cloutier ran an as independent and as a former right leaning liberal he probably got some provincial PC votes.  Likewise John Yabasuki is very popular personally and very active in the community while Cheryl Gallant is quite controversial and usually is kept away from the public as she is known to say stupid things or make extreme remarks that won't cost her in her own riding but hurt the party elsewhere.  I would say part of the PCs best showing in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is not just it being the most conservative riding, but they have a very popular MPP.  You will notice that the PCs also generally did better in municipalities in Simcoe-Grey than other Simcoe county ones and likewise Haldimand-Norfolk went slightly more PC than adjacent ridings so having a popular MPP can add 5 to 10 points.

A popular one can also help with the NDP too.  I think Essex and Niagara Falls might have gone PC with a generic candidate or at least in the case of Niagara Falls would have been a lot closer, mind you I think in Niagara Falls most of the Tory federal, NDP provincial crossover voters are ones who vote for candidate not party.  I also think Niagara Falls would have gone Liberal federally in 2015 had Rob Nicholson not run.  Up north, I am pretty sure Kenora-Rainy River would have stayed NDP if Greg Rickford weren't the candidate and Nipissing might have been at least competitive if Vic Fideli weren't candidate although not sure NDP could win that riding, but certainly Liberals in 2014 could have if Vic Fideli was not the candidate.  Likewise in the 905 belt, I think Whitby-Oshawa in 2014 and Milton in 2015 only stayed Tory due to Christine Elliott and Lisa Raitt, would have gone Liberal otherwise.  In Thunder Bay, Liberals probably would have been in the teens not high 30s if it weren't for the two popular MPPs so the Liberal win of the Thunder Bay District is more due to candidate not party.

Thunder Bay for sure, It was only poor vote distribution that led to the Liberals losing TB-Atikokan, it was less then 100 vote loss. But as mentioned before there is built in Liberal vote in the cities in the North... but that pretty much blew away this election.

LOVE the municipal map Hatman! I wonder how it would compare to the 2014 election? wondering which muni's went Liberal in 2014... some are obvious like Kingston, Toronto, Peel (minus Caledon)

[Hatman 🍁]

Also looks like Brant might be a shade too light as PC's narrowly got over 50 percent there.

Good catch; I probably put in the county-wide % rather than the municipality.

I didn't manually colour the whole map, I used a GIS program, but I did have to look up the CSDs you spelled wrong as they wouldn't render.

[VPH]

The Dems can do well in resource areas like NDP does in the north. Look at the Iron range in Minnesota.

True enough, although there was strong swing towards Trump in 2016 in the Iron Ridge, but the Democrats did still win there.  Norway, Sweden, and Finland are other examples as the northern parts of those three countries tend to be where the Social Democratic Party is strongest so perhaps its more conservative parties are strongest in rural agriculture areas which in most of the US and much of Europe that is what all your rural areas. 

Ironically in BC though, Interior at least nowadays is pretty strongly centre-right, only the West Kootenays (you have a lot of American draft dodgers from the 60s and the Dhukobors) and the Northwest (large First Nation population, BC Liberals generally dominate most of the non-First Nation's polls while federally the NDP wins elsewhere but it seems that is one part of the province you have BC Liberal provincially NDP federally voters so guessing those are personal Nathan Cullen votes not NDP ones) are the two exceptions, but areas like the Cariboo or Prince George very much tilt to the right.  Saskatchewan and Manitoba also have the NDP doing really well in the North, but again those areas have large First Nation's population.

I see some of the coastal and interior NDP areas like the Birkenstock belt in New England or some resorty areas of Colorado depending on where we're talking about.

[mileslunn]

The Dems can do well in resource areas like NDP does in the north. Look at the Iron range in Minnesota.

True enough, although there was strong swing towards Trump in 2016 in the Iron Ridge, but the Democrats did still win there.  Norway, Sweden, and Finland are other examples as the northern parts of those three countries tend to be where the Social Democratic Party is strongest so perhaps its more conservative parties are strongest in rural agriculture areas which in most of the US and much of Europe that is what all your rural areas. 

Ironically in BC though, Interior at least nowadays is pretty strongly centre-right, only the West Kootenays (you have a lot of American draft dodgers from the 60s and the Dhukobors) and the Northwest (large First Nation population, BC Liberals generally dominate most of the non-First Nation's polls while federally the NDP wins elsewhere but it seems that is one part of the province you have BC Liberal provincially NDP federally voters so guessing those are personal Nathan Cullen votes not NDP ones) are the two exceptions, but areas like the Cariboo or Prince George very much tilt to the right.  Saskatchewan and Manitoba also have the NDP doing really well in the North, but again those areas have large First Nation's population.

I see some of the coastal and interior NDP areas like the Birkenstock belt in New England or some resorty areas of Colorado depending on where we're talking about.

Much of Vancouver Island for sure.  West Kootenays is really the only Interior area I think that matches this profile.  Okanagan Valley has a lot of retirees, but most tend to be fairly conservative so more akin to Ocean and Cape May County in New Jersey (which will quite different in many ways) they have large retiree communities and are fairly conservative and also like many seaside towns in England which are too quite conservative.

[Boston Bread]

I wanted to do a swing map for the NDP from 2011 federal to 2018 provincial. Does anyone have the 2011 federal NDP numbers for the 2018 provincial ridings?

[King of Kensington]

Did you do Algoma District?

[mileslunn]

Here is a map of the municipalities PCs got over 50%.  Interesting how it seems along the lakeshore hardly any, you could drive from Kitchener to Kingston along the 401 and Puslinch and Quinte West are the only over 50% municipalities you would pass through.  While move away from Lake Ontario and PCs over 50% in the vast majority.  The other open area is along the Ottawa River but that is due to large Francophone population.

[King of Kensington]

Funny how the popular vote breakdowns in Toronto and Peterborough were almost identical.

[mileslunn]

Funny how the popular vote breakdowns in Toronto and Peterborough were almost identical.

True although strong urban/suburban divide. In the old city of Toronto, NDP won massively, it was the suburbs that favoured the PC's that made it close. Interestingly enough in Peterborough strong north/south split with NDP dominating the north side and PC's the south side. Is the north side where the downtown and university is located by any chance?

[Krago]

Here is a quick comparison between Toronto 2014 and Toronto 2018.  Notice the reduction in the Liberal (red) areas.


Toronto 2014




Toronto 2018

[Krago]

Ottawa - 2014 Provincial Election




Ottawa - 2018 Provincial Election

[King of Kensington]

Looking at some of these municipal results:

The pattern of Wasaga Beach/Collingwood/Blue Mountains in terms of PC vote share (from highest to lowest) is about what I'd expect

I assume Cobourg is Lou Rinaldi's home town

Loyalist Township has "exurban liberalism" going on

[adma]

I assume Cobourg is Lou Rinaldi's home town

Actually, Rinaldi's the former mayor of Brighton.  It's more of an exurban/retirement "Don Valley West-ness" that boosted the Liberals in Cobourg.  (What drove Rinaldi into third place overall was underperformance in places which he didn't previously represent: Newcastle/Clarke and Peterborough South.)

[King of Kensington]

^ I actually do know a Baby Boomer couple that recently downsized from the Wanless Park area to Cobourg (and I know they don't vote PC!)

[lilTommy]

Ottawa - 2014 Provincial Election




Ottawa - 2018 Provincial Election

These are great! Are you able to show Peel region, 2014 vs 2018? I think that would be interesting as well to see the vote change. As well as Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph-Cambridge

[King of Kensington]

I just did a comparison of NDP gains and NDP holds in Southern Ontario on a few demographic indicators. 

NDP gains

University degree  41.4%
Visible minorities  37.3%
Blue collar occupations  15.1%

NDP holds

University degree  28.2%
Visible minorities  24%
Blue collar occupations  21.6%

[mileslunn]

I just did a comparison of NDP gains and NDP holds in Southern Ontario on a few demographic indicators. 

NDP gains

University degree  41.4%
Visible minorities  37.3%
Blue collar occupations  15.1%

NDP holds

University degree  28.2%
Visible minorities  24%
Blue collar occupations  21.6%

What is it for PC gains and PC holds as well as Liberal holds would be interesting to see comparisons.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Quick question, why does Niagara Falls vote solidly NDP provincially but still vote Tory federally, even in 2015? It seems like quite a discrepancy given they have the same exact boundaries. Does the MPP/MP have a big personal vote that cancels out the natural lean of the riding?