Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[136or142]

In the spirit of Glenn Thibault, who will the Ontario Liberals bribe to cross the floor to get themselves back to official party status? 

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Wait, does this mean mainstreet is accepted as a logical Canadian pollster again?!

Once again Forum proves that is has the most accurate polls.  :/

[trebor204]

With 51/52 of the polls reporting: With 49.77% the NDP will win Kiiwetinoong

[Krago]

If the NDP wins Kiiwetinoong, they will end up with 40 members in their caucus:

- 8 incumbent white females
- 8 incumbent white males
- 7 new white females
- 7 new white males
- 5 new non-white females
- 5 new non-white males

[Krago]

The Cube Rule of British politics states that the ratio of the seats won by each party is equal to the ratio of the cubes of their popular vote.  So if a party gets twice the votes of another party, they should win eight times as many seats.

Applying the Cube Rule to the Ontario election would give these results:

PC 74, NDP 42, Lib 8

The actual numbers are: PC 76, NDP 40, Lib 7, Green 1

[Cynthia]

Ugh. Ontario Liberals seem confused.

[King of Kensington]

Some NDP pickups, 20+ swings:

Toronto Centre  53.7%  +34.2
Ottawa Centre  46.1%  +25.6
St. Paul's  36%  +25.5
University-Rosedale (new riding) 49.7%  +25.4
Spadina-Fort York  49.7%  +23.0
Scarborough Southwest  45.5%  +21.9
Davenport  60.3%  +20.1

Some PC pickups, 20+ swings:

Etobicoke North  52.5%  +30
King-Vaughan (new riding)  56.6%  +24.3
Vaughan-Woodbridge  50.5%  +23.4
Markham-Unionville  62.4%  +21.6

[MaxQue]

Scarborough SW seems wierd on that list. Why so much of a swing?

[DC Al Fine]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

[DC Al Fine]

Some other thoughts:

1) Lol Vaughan-Woodbridge

2) I'm surprised how well some Liberal incumbents help up outside Toronto.

3) Look at some of the Liberal results in rural southwestern Ontario and compare to 2003/2007. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

[King of Kensington]

Some other thoughts:

1) Lol Vaughan-Woodbridge

Yeah, a lot of denial about the state of the OLP where their vote bled left and right.  Another one of those ridiculous "look how well they did last time, how can they possibly lose?" predictions (see also Toronto Centre on the left flank).

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Yeah Ottawa turned out to be the real area for "safe" Liberals.  Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South were the only ridings in the province where they won by wide margins.  I wonder if there's a desire in the Ottawa area to leave Ontario and become an autonomous national capital district.

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Hard to believe that the OLP were once the party of rural SW Ontario.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some NDP pickups, 20+ swings:

Toronto Centre  53.7%  +34.2
Ottawa Centre  46.1%  +25.6
St. Paul's  36%  +25.5
University-Rosedale (new riding) 49.7%  +25.4
Spadina-Fort York  49.7%  +23.0
Scarborough Southwest  45.5%  +21.9
Davenport  60.3%  +20.1

Some PC pickups, 20+ swings:

Etobicoke North  52.5%  +30
King-Vaughan (new riding)  56.6%  +24.3
Vaughan-Woodbridge  50.5%  +23.4
Markham-Unionville  62.4%  +21.6

Markham-Unionville was one of the few CPC gains in 2015, and it also flipped here. Is there some kind of Conservative trend in the area?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the Liberals lost 20 points, with about half going to the Tories and half going to the NDP. Not exactly a 'left wing party'. We saw the same kind of fracturing in 2011.

Liberals hold the same kind of social values as the NDP, but are wary of the NDP's economic policies. Those in the 905 who are more concerned about economics went PC, while those in urban areas who care more about social issues went NDP.

Polling does suggest that the bedrock ~20% of Liberal supporters lean more towards the NDP as their second choice though, so there is room for the NDP to improve if the Liberals spend the next four years running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some NDP pickups, 20+ swings:

Toronto Centre  53.7%  +34.2
Ottawa Centre  46.1%  +25.6
St. Paul's  36%  +25.5
University-Rosedale (new riding) 49.7%  +25.4
Spadina-Fort York  49.7%  +23.0
Scarborough Southwest  45.5%  +21.9
Davenport  60.3%  +20.1

Some PC pickups, 20+ swings:

Etobicoke North  52.5%  +30
King-Vaughan (new riding)  56.6%  +24.3
Vaughan-Woodbridge  50.5%  +23.4
Markham-Unionville  62.4%  +21.6

Markham-Unionville was one of the few CPC gains in 2015, and it also flipped here. Is there some kind of Conservative trend in the area?

Chinese people are trending Tory big time.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Did the Sikh vote go NDP following Jagmeet, or were they Fordistas?

[Hatman 🍁]

Did the Sikh vote go NDP following Jagmeet, or were they Fordistas?

Looks like they were divided, but went NDP overall. The NDP won the three heavily Sikh ridings, but not by a large margins.

[DC Al Fine]

Polling does suggest that the bedrock ~20% of Liberal supporters lean more towards the NDP as their second choice though, so there is room for the NDP to improve if the Liberals spend the next four years running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

And that's a very real risk for the Liberals. People look at Trudeau and Canadian volatility and assume that they'll be back fairly quickly. Trudeau was rather exceptional. There are lots of examples of parties suffering this sort of defeat either fading away or at least spending a long time in the wilderness.

My guess is that they are in for a long time in the wilderness but will eventually get back into power.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

You know, I may not be happy with the final result, but I can at least enjoy the obliteration of the Liberals and their loss of party status. F**k them forever and may they never rise again, although they probably will, as is tradition.

[DC Al Fine]

Which seats have the largest relative differences between their federal and provincial results? I'm assuming it's Etobicoke North for the Tories. I.e. Ford outpaced the provincial vote by 12% while the federal Tories underperformed their provincial vote by 12% for a total variance of 24%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many PC 18/LIB 15 ridings are there? How many NDP 18/LIB 15 ridings are there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know, I may not be happy with the final result, but I can at least enjoy the obliteration of the Liberals and their loss of party status. F**k them forever and may they never rise again, although they probably will, as is tradition.

If the Liberals are gone, you may be more likely to get more NDP governments, but you may also get more PC ones. Be careful what you wish for.
I'd prefer 15 years of center-leftist government than 15 years of right-wing and then solidly-left-wing government alternating!

[adma]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

Exactly.  Had Andrea Horwath won, you'd probably have grousing over a "fractured right (or at least centre/right) wing".

Incidentally,  Ann Hoggarth in Barrie-Innisfil had by far the worst incumbent Lib result: 12.52% (a point worse than the non-incumbent running in BSOM next door)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

Exactly.  Had Andrea Horwath won, you'd probably have grousing over a "fractured right (or at least centre/right) wing".

Incidentally,  Ann Hoggarth in Barrie-Innisfil had by far the worst incumbent Lib result: 12.52% (a point worse than the non-incumbent running in BSOM next door)

Wasn't she the Liberal who won by the narrowest margin in 2014?

[Hatman 🍁]

Polling does suggest that the bedrock ~20% of Liberal supporters lean more towards the NDP as their second choice though, so there is room for the NDP to improve if the Liberals spend the next four years running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

And that's a very real risk for the Liberals. People look at Trudeau and Canadian volatility and assume that they'll be back fairly quickly. Trudeau was rather exceptional. There are lots of examples of parties suffering this sort of defeat either fading away or at least spending a long time in the wilderness.

My guess is that they are in for a long time in the wilderness but will eventually get back into power.

Well, a combination of Trudeau and also Jack Layton dying.

[Hatman 🍁]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

Exactly.  Had Andrea Horwath won, you'd probably have grousing over a "fractured right (or at least centre/right) wing".

Incidentally,  Ann Hoggarth in Barrie-Innisfil had by far the worst incumbent Lib result: 12.52% (a point worse than the non-incumbent running in BSOM next door)

Wasn't she the Liberal who won by the narrowest margin in 2014?

I think so. But due to redistricting, she had no hope in hell of winning.