Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Virginiá]

Thanks Adam

[YE]

Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

IIRC he's in 2nd and knocked out Westin from the runoff.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

IIRC he's in 2nd and knocked out Westin from the runoff.  

Moser or Westin could get the second slot, we've got about half the vote left to count.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My takeaway from these results so far:

- Democrats on track to outperform Hillary by around 2-3% in TX overall.
- Have a good shot at taking 3 house seats from TX (perhaps 4, although Alexander's open seat is a big stretch)
- Ted Cruz is going to be very hard to beat if Beto doesn't either do better in these rural counties, or get better margins in the urban counties. Beto underperformed/broke even Hillary in a lot of the rural counties, although tbf rural counties are only about 15-18% of the electorate in TX.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 24
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
52.4%   Jan McDowell   11,505   
21.4%   John Biggan   4,692   
20.5%   Todd Allen   4,514   
5.7%   Josh Imhoff   1,255   
139/248 precincts reporting

[Skill and Chance]

General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

Well, whatever this is, it certainly doesn't look like the VA 2017 primary with everyone and his cousin in the suburbs taking the Dem ballot for Northam, which is what many here were basically expecting.  It's a caution sign that doesn't match up well with what's been happening in the rest of the country.

[Jeppe]

Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

IIRC he's in 2nd and knocked out Westin from the runoff.  

Moser or Westin could get the second slot, we've got about half the vote left to count.

According to DDHQ, Laura Moser is mathematically guaranteed to be in the run-off.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/971239289458757632

[136or142]

General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

Well, whatever this is, it certainly doesn't look like the VA 2017 primary with everyone and his cousin in the suburbs taking the Dem ballot for Northam, which is what many here were basically expecting.  It's a caution sign that doesn't match up well with what's been happening in the rest of the country.

I don't know who said that.  Southern suburbs outside of Virginia and a couple other Southern States are still heavily Republican. Excluding minority majority suburbs of course.

Jay Hulings could still make the runoff.

[Skill and Chance]

My takeaway from these results so far:

- Democrats on track to outperform Hillary by around 2-3% in TX overall.
- Have a good shot at taking 3 house seats from TX (perhaps 4, although Alexander's open seat is a big stretch)
- Ted Cruz is going to be very hard to beat if Beto doesn't either do better in these rural counties, or get better margins in the urban counties. Beto underperformed/broke even Hillary in a lot of the rural counties, although tbf rural counties are only about 15-18% of the electorate in TX.

This after the 254 county tour.  I don't see a lot for Dems to like here outside of TX-23 and TX-32 if Allred wins the runoff, which I suspect will be the only pickups.  

[Jeppe]

Jay Hulings could still make the runoff.

Probably not, Bexar, his area of "strength", has almost finished reporting, and he's still behind by quite a bit. All that's really left is the rural western TX counties that he's done pretty horribly in so far. It's between Canales and Trevino right now, to determine who gets to be the sacrificial lamb against Ortiz Jones in the run-off.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 35
Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
53.2%   David Smalling   6,572   
46.8%   Sherrill Alexander   5,788   
315/389 precincts reporting

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 7
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.8%   Lizzie Fletcher   8,680   
24.2%   Laura Moser   7,058   
19.6%   Jason Westin   5,700   
15.6%   Alex Triantaphyllis   4,544   
5.3%   Ivan Sanchez   1,549   
3.4%   Joshua Butler   996   
2%   James Cargas   586   
115/153 precincts reporting

[Former Kentuckian]

Looks like this might be the first Democratic primary for Governor to break 1 million votes since 2002.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

These vote counts are frankly embarrassing since it's 2018 and not 1918.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Lots of votes from the 7th just came in now. Looks like Moser will be in runoff.

29.8%   Lizzie Fletcher   8,680   
24.2%   Laura Moser   7,058   
19.6%   Jason Westin   5,700   
15.6%   Alex Triantaphyllis   4,544   
5.3%   Ivan Sanchez   1,549   
3.4%   Joshua Butler   996   
2%   James Cargas   586   

(75% in)

[Doimper]

These vote counts are frankly embarrassing since it's 2018 and not 1918.

Imagine how frustrating it would be to watch this in 1948.

[henster]

Anyone want to speculate the decent GOP turnout is a result of the gun control talk? Maybe Dems have overplayed their hands on this again.

[Former Kentuckian]

Looks like this might be the first Democratic primary for Governor to break 1 million votes since 2002.

2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 865,649 votes with 73% reporting

2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 554,014 votes

2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 679,877 votes

2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 508,602 votes

2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,003,388 votes

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anyone want to speculate the decent GOP turnout is a result of the gun control talk? Maybe Dems have overplayed their hands on this again.

GOP turned out 66-33 in 2016. It looks like this will end up being 61-39 GOP by the end of it (12 point swing from 2016; 20 point from 2012), which while disappointing for dems, still means they have a fairly good shot at picking up 3 house seats. The senate is probably out of reach unless Cruz messes up.

[Beet]

Anyone want to speculate the decent GOP turnout is a result of the gun control talk? Maybe Dems have overplayed their hands on this again.

Guns are literally the single worst major issue for Dems. Anything else would be better.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 27
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
41.2%   Roy Barrera   8,733   
23.3%   Eric Holguin   4,939   
19.1%   Vanessa Foster   4,041   
16.4%   Ronnie McDonald   3,474   
244/246 precincts reporting

[Former Kentuckian]

Anyone want to speculate the decent GOP turnout is a result of the gun control talk? Maybe Dems have overplayed their hands on this again.

The news stories about the Dem early vote turnout may have played a part, too

[krazen1211]

Cruz is winning bellweather Tarrant County by a landslide and might even win Harris County again.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Again: This is by far the best dem turnout in TX primaries since 2008. 12 point margin shift from 2016.

[BudgieForce]

I think your putting too much effort in hyping up Cruz's performance @Krazen. He's the incumbent senator, he should be winning his party's nomination handedly.