Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[junior chįmp]

Cruz is approaching 1 million votes. Voters are flooding into the GOP even moreso than 2016.

Imagine being this deluded. Sad.

Krazens high on deep fryer french fry fumes at work again

[Oryxslayer]

I mean sometimes total primary votes matter, and sometimes they don't. What's more important is that Cruz is winning by so much while O'Rourke isn't - I understand that he is an incumbent and O'Rourke isn't, but 85%+ indicates that Cruz is very popular with the base still (and that there probably is not a huge contingent of Republicans who are going to vote for O'Rourke), while 'only' getting 60% means that O'Rourke still has a ways to go to unite the Dem base (particularly in the heavily hispanic areas along the border, where he is surprisingly losing right now).

Either way, the primary results certainly are not a huge indicator of anything other than what we knew already: Texas is a heavy, heavy lift for the Democrats. It's not impossible, but it's definitely Likely R.

I agree with most of this analysis expect one bit, it's pretty clear that the high Hispanic south literally are just voting for who has the most Hispanic name, especially if you check the other races.

[Former Kentuckian]

Democrats could double their turnout from 2014, but there is no enthusiasm. HAHAHA!

Republicans are extremely talented at deluding themselves. Just look at how many of them sincerely believe that Trump cares about poor people, lol

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

GOP numbers may have stayed the same, but Democratic numbers have improved. In 2014, the Democratic gubernatorial election only had 554,014 voters. Right now, at 42% reporting, 680,585 votes are in for the Democratic gubernatorial.

[BudgieForce]

It doesn't seem all that important to me but what do I know.

[Nyvin]

Democrats could double their turnout from 2014, but there is no enthusiasm. HAHAHA!

Republicans are extremely talented at deluding themselves. Just look at how many of them sincerely believe that Trump cares about poor people, lol

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

The 2012 primary for Senate was 1,406,648 votes for the GOP and 497,487 votes for the Democrats.   (Dems got 26% of the total)

The 2014 primary for Senate was 1,314,556 votes for the GOP and 510,009 votes for the Democrats.  (Dems got 28% of the total)

Even by the wildest swings going forward it's going to be a big improvement for Dems tonight.  

Currently it's 1,114,434 for the GOP and 711,300 for the Democrats (Dems getting ~39% of total) with roughly 44% of results in.

[henster]

Gina Ortiz Jones: 39.6
Judy Canales: 18.4
Rick Trevino: 17.3
Jay Hulings: 16

Think Hulings just had the misfortune of having the whitest sounding name.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Moser staying in second for the runoff for now.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971238645440139269

Narrative destroyed.

[bilaps]

Democrats could double their turnout from 2014, but there is no enthusiasm. HAHAHA!

Republicans are extremely talented at deluding themselves. Just look at how many of them sincerely believe that Trump cares about poor people, lol

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Yes, primary vote raw numbers are excellent indicators of how a general election will go. Just ask Sen. Moore!

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-primary

Yeah, because nothing happened between primary and general election.

[Horus]

Moser staying in second for the runoff for now.

Gross.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 2
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
55.7%   Todd Litton   9,455   
20.9%   Darnell Jones   3,550   
9%   Silky Malik   1,533   
7.2%   Ali Khorasani   1,229   
7.1%   H. P. Parvizian   1,197   
27/159 precincts reporting

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971238645440139269

Narrative destroyed.

Lol....more tweets from the guy whose genius model told us Hillary would win NC by 8%

[krazen1211]

The 2012 primary for Senate was 1,406,648 votes for the GOP and 497,487 votes for the Democrats.   (Dems got 26% of the total)

The 2014 primary for Senate was 1,314,556 votes for the GOP and 510,009 votes for the Democrats.  (Dems got 28% of the total)

Even by the wildest swings going forward it's going to be a big improvement for Dems tonight.  

Currently it's 1,114,434 for the GOP and 711,300 for the Democrats (Dems getting ~39% of total) with roughly 44% of results in.

Now do 2004, 2006 and 2008. All of which were landslide victories for the GOP. Although I guess the Dem party won a write in for a term.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 25
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
33.5%   Chris Perri   8,511   
26.3%   Julie Oliver   6,685   
20.6%   Kathi Thomas   5,232   
10.7%   West Hansen   2,722   
8.8%   Chetan Panda   2,230   
238/430 precincts reporting

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/971239970513018881

[BudgieForce]

We all follow Wasserman and Cohn @Limoliberal.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

[henster]

I predict TX-23 will be the only CD Dems flip.

[Former Kentuckian]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

But Texas is moving that way. It's not going to happen this year, but it's inevitable and the numbers show that.

[junior chįmp]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

"Whew....we lost Alabama and soon PA-18....but we're holding on to Texas!"

[Nyvin]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

That's crazy.   Texas has a loooooooong way to go before it becomes competitive.   I don't know of anyone saying Texas was going to be competitive statewide in 2018, even though Trump is historically unpopular there.

The real story here is that the state is indeed changing, the vast majority of "new votes" are going to the Democrats.  It might not be 2018 or even 2020, but Texas most definitely won't be the same state come another 6-8 years at this rate.

[Beet]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

But Texas is moving that way. It's not going to happen this year, but it's inevitable and the numbers show that.

That's the point... the numbers don't show anything. Hell, I have noticed the people who are actually from Texas are saying the sunbelt strategy is bad. It's the national Democrats hyping it up. I say, focus on the Midwest. That's the region they need.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

But Texas is moving that way. It's not going to happen this year, but it's inevitable and the numbers show that.

That's the point... the numbers don't show anything. Hell, I have noticed the people who are actually from Texas are saying the sunbelt strategy is bad. It's the national Democrats hyping it up. I say, focus on the Midwest. That's the region they need.

Yeah but let's not ignore that Georgia and Arizona are demographic ticking time bombs. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

"Whew....we lost Alabama and soon PA-18....but we're holding on to Texas!"

Considering that the tax bill was designed with Texas in mind as well as the gun debate reigniting the Lone Star State's loyalty to guns, it's not much of a surprise that the Dems aren't seeing the gains here they are in other states. Ted Cruz was unopposed practically and he still romped in the primary vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 5
Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
30.5%   Lance Gooden   16,122   
21.7%   Bunni Pounds   11,481   
18.2%   Sam Deen   9,619   
11.3%   Jason Wright   5,966   
10.9%   Kenneth Sheets   5,768   
3%   Danny Campbell   1,573   
2.6%   David Williams   1,378   
1.7%   Charles Lingerfelt   887   
172/232 precincts reporting