Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Former Kentuckian]

I know Texas isn't likely to turn blue this year (or in the next couple), but Hillary was able to get Trump down to the single digits in Texas in 2016, so I'm pulling for Beto to at least do that.

[136or142]

I know Texas isn't likely to turn blue this year (or in the next couple), but Hillary was able to get Trump down to the single digits in Texas in 2016, so I'm pulling for Beto to at least do that.

It's probably more accurate to say that Trump got Trump down to single digits in Texas.

[Doimper]

From another forum:

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[The Mikado]

I've been repeatedly saying Cruz by 5-7 for months, and I stand by that. A result around 53-46 in November is what I'm expecting.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, I guess that's all we're gonna get tonight.  Maybe those counties not reporting will get a computer or phone for the fall.

[henster]

I've been repeatedly saying Cruz by 5-7 for months, and I stand by that. A result around 53-46 in November is what I'm expecting.

46 would be quite a feat, Dem ceiling seems to be 44.

[136or142]

Well, I guess that's all we're gonna get tonight.  Maybe those counties not reporting will get a computer or phone for the fall.

A big increase in reporting came in about half hour after you posted this.

[Badger]

I wish our moderator clown car was capable of doing something about these trashy spammers.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

7 votes between the candidates in the 23rd district for a spot in the runoff with 28 precincts remaining. The justice democrat here might squeak into the runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At long last, the final projection can be made:

District 23
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
41.4%   Gina Jones   17,939   
17.4%   Rick Trevino   7,548   
17.2%   Judy Canales   7,454   
15.1%   Jay Hulings   6,541   
9%   Angie Villescaz   3,900   
332/348 precincts reporting

The next primary is in Illinois on March 20.

[Blair]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

[Gass3268]

Democrats really didn't do that bad last night:


Source

Guess what?!? The early vote in TX's 15 largest counties were predictive!

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Suburan Democrats are pumped to vote!

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[bilaps]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

[Former Kentuckian]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

Maybe identity played a part? Beto is white, Sema Hernandez is Latina, and Edward Kimbrough is Black. I could be wrong, though. Just a guess.

[Former Kentuckian]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

Beto is pretty unknown to a lot of the state as well. Just because he has Atlas hype doesn't mean he is very well known, lol. Notice how he got 90% of the vote in his heavily Latino home county and almost 90% in Travis county.

[Gass3268]

Source

[Oryxslayer]

So I finally woke up, so here is my take on the final results:

Statewide, democrats got about 1,037,000 to 1,541,000 reps in the senate and 1,017,000 to 1,538,000 reps in the governors race. Last two senate races were 497,487 to 1,406,648 in 2012, and 510,009 to 1,314,556 in 2014. The 2014 governor race - which was hyped to death for gain whatsoever, was 554,014 to 1,337,875. So, a ration change from about 1:2.5 or 3, to now 1:1.5. So even though dems didn't win (who honestly was expecting this? you should be fired) they did double their primary numbers. Overall, it isn't anything to suggest a huge change in the Texan political lean, but it is enough to continue to justify a Likely R rating for the senate rather than Safe R.

Housewise, the three main house races are all things to write home about on the dem side, though each in their own way. TX 23 is obviously the shining star, what with Hispanic participation in the primary through the roof. Democrats easily trounced Reps here, which bodes well for hispanic activism in the fall. In 2016, dems and reps in TX 23 we about exactly even in the primary totals, with dems beating reps by just 500 votes.  TX-07 and TX-32 are also signs of continued competativeness. For reference,  TX-07 in 2016 was 24,190 votes for the dem to 77,300 votes for the rep in the primary. TX-32 did not have a dem candidate. Both races saw the dems come within a hairs distance of the Rs, which easily signals competative races in the rest of the year. TX-02, TX-06, and TX-21 meanwhile didn't show any signs of upsets in favor of a democratic seat-warmer, so that is something reps can be happy about.

Finally, Dems also have a hispanic problem in the Texas primaries. I hate to use the term "low-info voters," but it is pretty clear from these results across the ticket that south-Texas will always vote for whomever has the most Hispanic-sounding name, even if they are a nobody.

[KingSweden]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

Yup. Hopefully they learned their lesson after this debacle. Westin was a solid progressive without all Moser’s baggage

As for everything else... there’s some positive signs here. I think 2-4 House seats is a reasonable target, and we could have some success in the State House too (it won’t flip, though). That being said, Beto has a lot of work to do, though that’s less of a function of being a Democrat and more him being from an isolated part of the state that has a terrible record producing statewide candidates, let alone victors

[DemocraticKing]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

Maybe identity played a part? Beto is white, Sema Hernandez is Latina, and Edward Kimbrough is Black. I could be wrong, though. Just a guess.

This is literally all this is. Beto's name rec is low, so people identity vote. The "Justice Dem" type Sema Hernandez winning Latino blue dog land in South Texas proves this point wonderfully. Kimbrough carried African American areas as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

Maybe identity played a part? Beto is white, Sema Hernandez is Latina, and Edward Kimbrough is Black. I could be wrong, though. Just a guess.

This is literally all this is. Beto's name rec is low, so people identity vote. The "Justice Dem" type Sema Hernandez winning Latino blue dog land in South Texas proves this point wonderfully. Kimbrough carried African American areas as well.

Yep, this is pretty much it.



Dallas county - O'Rourke Blue, Kimbrough Green, Hernandez Red.

[Gass3268]

Some more maps from Miles:





Source

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

[Former Kentuckian]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

Apparently there was a noticeable uptick for Moser in election day voting vs early voting and absentee voting and Westin led Moser in absentee voting: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17084808/dccc-laura-moser-texas-democratic-primary-2018

[Roronoa D. Law]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

Apparently there was a noticeable uptick for Moser in election day voting vs early voting and absentee voting and Westin led Moser in absentee voting: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17084808/dccc-laura-moser-texas-democratic-primary-2018

Yes the DCCC should be concerned with these primary. Democratic primary voters have always been known to be pragmatic and calculated. I hope the Our Revolution and Justice crowd don't hurt our chances this year.