Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[henster]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Early vote is always fools' gold. It literally means nothing - it only means your voters cast their ballot at a different time. It doesn't mean their vote counts more. It's like tracking the morning vote versus the afternoon vote.

You would think people would learn from 2016!

Democratic operatives are paid to not learn from 2016.

[Jeppe]

Lillian Salerno just jumped ahead to 2nd place in Texas 32. If she gets into the run-off, then Emily's List will have 5/5 tonight. They endorsed Lizzie Fletcher in TX-07, Veronica Escobar in TX-16, Gina Ortiz Jones in TX-23, Sylvia Garcia in TX-29, and Lillian Salerno in TX-32.

Escobar and Garcia won outright tonight and be headed to Congress in their heavily Democratic seats. Fletcher and Ortiz Jones are currently in 1st place and are heavy favourites to win their run-offs. Salerno, if she makes it to the run-off, will likely lose to Colin Allred though, who is at 40% of the vote.

What's interesting is how badly Jay Hulings, the Blue Dog/Congressional Hispanic Caucus/Castro brothers endorsed candidate performed tonight. He's currently in 4th place behind two random candidates that only raised several thousand dollars, a shame because he, like Ortiz Jones, raised almost a million dollars for this race.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

That's the point... the numbers don't show anything. Hell, I have noticed the people who are actually from Texas are saying the sunbelt strategy is bad. It's the national Democrats hyping it up. I say, focus on the Midwest. That's the region they need.

Seriously, we've got Dems drooling over O'Rourke (he isn't a bad person, but he's running in the wrong state) when they still need to defend Heitkamp, McCaskill, Baldwin, and Tester. It's frankly annoying. Texas is fool's gold because for every new Sunbelt billionaire won in Dallas, there are still 2-3 culturally Southern votes to be lost in East Texas.

[junior chįmp]

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Special elections are notorious for being won based on which side is fired up the most, and it does indeed point to a surge of enthusiasm on the left. You don't even need raw turnout numbers for that either. You can tell by the surge of candidates and fundraising as well.

If the final TX numbers are standard for Democrats, then maybe at best, all you've established is that Texas Democrats aren't as fired up as the national environment. If you're going to make this argument, consider all factors and not turnout numbers from one state during a primary.

I wasn't making any judgments about national politics or trends. As for Texas, though, there were rumblings among the Sunbelt Strategy/Hillary crowd (especially here on Atlas) that Texas was the new California...and I wanted to specifically dispute that.

"Whew....we lost Alabama and soon PA-18....but we're holding on to Texas!"

Considering that the tax bill was designed with Texas in mind as well as the gun debate reigniting the Lone Star State's loyalty to guns, it's not much of a surprise that the Dems aren't seeing the gains here they are in other states. Ted Cruz was unopposed practically and he still romped in the primary vote.

Dude...nobody gives a shít about that stuff in the real world. Democrats lose for other reasons but seldom does anyone win because they gave voters an extra $1.50 a week in their check

[Skill and Chance]

I predict TX-23 will be the only CD Dems flip.

TX-32 looks reasonably promising for them.  The parties are almost even in turnout and the leading Dem is probably the best candidate on their side.

[Oryxslayer]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Also, many of the Latinos involved are either below voting age or not citizens at all. Banking all one's hopes on one demographic may work in Maryland or New Mexico, but it won't work here.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Lieutenant Governor

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Mike Collier
362,037   53.4%   
Michael Cooper
316,193   46.6   
678,230 votes, 48% reporting (3,671 of 7,694 precincts)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Seriously, we've got Dems drooling over O'Rourke (he isn't a bad person, but he's running in the wrong state) when they still need to defend Heitkamp, McCaskill, Baldwin, and Tester. It's frankly annoying. Texas is fool's gold because for every new Sunbelt billionaire won in Dallas, there are still 2-3 culturally Southern votes to be lost in East Texas.

deleted

Right? I mean, I'm from the Houston area, and the suburbs here rival the Wisconsin WOW counties in Titanium R-ness.

[henster]

1 Dem turned out for Beto O'Rourke in King County which was Trump's best county in the country he won it 94-3 which is 149 votes to Hillary's 5. It looks like 2 people voted in the GOV primary as well.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm leaving this thread for now. When Krazen has false reasons to hop in a thread, it typically means one should walk away. I will return in a few hours when we hopefully have full returns and can have a legitimate discussion.

[Doimper]

for every new Sunbelt billionaire won in Dallas, there are still 2-3 culturally Southern votes to be lost in East Texas.

Are you posting from 1994?

[136or142]

General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

[UncleSam]

Anyone have any theories on why Cruz is doing so well and O'Rourke doing so badly in Harris County (Houston)? Cruz has almost 100k votes there (and Rs total near 110k) while O'Rourke only has around 65k, and Democrats in general only have around 110-115k. That seems like a pretty bad result for the largest metro area in the state, and an area Hillary beat Trump in by 15 points (which, admittedly, makes it more competitive than most major metro areas, but still).

I mean, obviously results like that will happen when you go from looking at a 9 point loss (2016 general) to a 22 point loss (total R primary votes compared to total D primary votes, which no is not a great indicator but it means about as much as it did in Virginia). You also don't see collapses in San Antonio or Dallas, and in fact see a tremendous performance for O'Rourke in Austin (he has almost four times as many votes as Cruz there), so it's odd that Houston isn't really turning out for Democrats with nearly the same gusto.

Another important thing to note is that Cruz is only 40k votes behind Abbott. I doubt that Cruz loses on a night where Abbott wins by double digits based on this (and frankly I think Dems will be very lucky to get within 20 of Abbott in November).

Can't wait for people to overanalyze these as the first 'real' results for literally months.

[The Mikado]

there are still 2-3 culturally Southern votes to be lost in East Texas.

Are you posting from 1994?

Seriously. The GOP has pretty much maxed out the white vote in East Texas: what little left that votes Dems is overwhelmingly black and isn't going to be chipped away.

EDIT: Please don't interpret this post as "Dem wave TX" boosterism. I am NOT in that camp. I'm just saying that there's no more blood for the GOP to squeeze out of the stone that is East Texas. When counties are voting 70-30 or 75-25 GOP out there, there's no more growth potential unless you start converting blacks.

[henster]

Anyone have any theories on why Cruz is doing so well and O'Rourke doing so badly in Harris County (Houston)? Cruz has almost 100k votes there (and Rs total near 110k) while O'Rourke only has around 65k, and Democrats in general only have around 110-115k. That seems like a pretty bad result for the largest metro area in the state, and an area Hillary beat Trump in by 15 points (which, admittedly, makes it more competitive than most major metro areas, but still).

I mean, obviously results like that will happen when you go from looking at a 9 point loss (2016 general) to a 22 point loss (total R primary votes compared to total D primary votes, which no is not a great indicator but it means about as much as it did in Virginia). You also don't see collapses in San Antonio or Dallas, and in fact see a tremendous performance for O'Rourke in Austin (he has almost four times as many votes as Cruz there), so it's odd that Houston isn't really turning out for Democrats with nearly the same gusto.

Another important thing to note is that Cruz is only 40k votes behind Abbott. I doubt that Cruz loses on a night where Abbott wins by double digits based on this (and frankly I think Dems will be very lucky to get within 20 of Abbott in November).

Can't wait for people to overanalyze these as the first 'real' results for literally months.

Harris is Cruz's home county and base, also the county has a high black population and it could be poor turnout affecting the Dem side.

[Webnicz]

Dang I guess theres just one precinct in Collingsworth that wouldn't budge for Cruz

[136or142]

It's probably silly, but I can't help but think that Alex Triantaphyllis did as poorly as he did because his name reminded people of syphilis.

[krazen1211]

I predict TX-23 will be the only CD Dems flip.

TX-32 looks reasonably promising for them.  The parties are almost even in turnout and the leading Dem is probably the best candidate on their side.

Pete Sessions is a smart incumbent who knows how to run a tough race. He defeated Martin Frost easily in the 2004 election despite some close polls in that race.

[henster]

It's probably silly, but I can't help but think that Alex Triantaphyllis did as poorly as he did because his name reminded people of syphilis.

I read that candidates with difficult last names usually lose, I wonder if he could've shortened his name on the ballot to something like Alex Trian.

[136or142]

U.S House district 14 is 100% reporting.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 21
Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
27.1%   Chip Roy   17,364   
17.8%   Matt McCall   11,404   
16.1%   William Negley   10,345   
9.3%   Jason Isaac   5,982   
5.5%   Jenifer Sarver   3,543   
4.9%   Robert Stovall   3,156   
3.5%   Quico Canseco   2,239   
3.3%   Ryan Krause   2,139   
3.3%   Susan Narvaiz   2,127   
1.8%   Al Poteet   1,168   
1.7%   Peggy Wardlaw   1,066   
1.3%   Samuel Temple   855   
1.3%   Anthony White   841   
0.9%   Eric Burkhart   608   
0.8%   Mauro Garza   521   
0.6%   Autry Pruitt   371   
0.5%   Foster Hagen   348   
0.1%   Ivan Andarza   74   
337/392 precincts reporting

[Virginiá]

Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

[136or142]

Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

69/153.  Not even close.

Moser at 23.7% in second ahead of 20.1% in third.