New PA Maps In Effect

[Brittain33]

Which district gets the chop in a Wolf - R legislature compromise in 2022?

I'll guess 10 because it's in the middle of the state, so can accommodate the fact that the west is the slow growing region, and as a district that is on the edge of competitiveness both sides will be ok with giving it up.

[Kantakouzenos]

Can someone update this map so that it is accurate?

[Boss_Rahm]

Has anyone come across an overlay of the new districts on Google Maps? I want to figure out what district I'm in.

[Greedo punched first]

It looks like Scott Perry and Lloyd Smucker will run against each other in PA-11.

[Oryxslayer]

Which district gets the chop in a Wolf - R legislature compromise in 2022?

Under the old map, it was probably one or 10, 17, or 18. Under the new map, I think it has to be 13, Appalachia is losing Pop fast and the seat can easily be eaten by its five neighbors. Probably keeps 10 in the R column.

[Oryxslayer]

It looks like Scott Perry and Lloyd Smucker will run against each other in PA-11.

No, Perry lives north of York on the Cumberland border in Carroll Township. He will be running in PA-10 to keep an incumbent in the seat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I count 17 County splits when controlled for taking out Districts wholly within a single county from counting:

Montgomery: 01 and 04
Montgomery: 01 and 05
Montgomery: 04 and 05
Berks: 04 and 06
Berks: 04 and 09
Berks: 06 and 09
Monroe: 07 and 08
Luzerne: 08 and 09
Northumberland: 09 and 12
York: 10 and 11
Cumberland: 10 and 13
Centre: 12 and 15
Cambria: 13 and 15
Westmoreland: 13 and 14
Butler: 15 and 16
Butler: 15 and 17
Butler: 16 and 17

[Greedo punched first]

Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

[Oryxslayer]

Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

Why would boyle stay in 4 when he is a Philly congressman, the 2nd is drawn to elect a White Democrat, and contains his house?

[Gass3268]

Were the current incumbents/special election candidates live:

PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-03: Bob Brady (D) (retiring), Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04:
PA-05: Pat Meehan (R) (Retiring)
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07: Charlie Dent (R) (Retiring)
PA-08: Lou Barletta (R) (Running for Senate), Matthew Cartwright (D)
PA-09:
PA-10: Scott Perry (R)
PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R) (Retiring)
PA-14:
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R), Connor Lamb (D) (Not 100% certain on this one as it's close)
PA-18: Mike Doyle (D), Rick Saccone (R)

[Oryxslayer]

Were the current incumbents/special election candidates live:

PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-03: Bob Brady (D) (retiring), Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04:
PA-05: Pat Meehan (R) (Retiring)
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07: Charlie Dent (R) (Retiring)
PA-08: Lou Barletta (R) (Running for Senate), Matthew Cartwright (D)
PA-09:
PA-10: Scott Perry (R)
PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R) (Retiring)
PA-14:
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R), Connor Lamb (D) (Not 100% certain on this one as it's close)
PA-18: Mike Doyle (D), Rick Saccone (R)

Lamb Lives in Mt. Lebanon according to the Sec of State, which is in PA-17. He is an easy pick for November if he wins.

[Ebsy]

Has anyone come across an overlay of the new districts on Google Maps? I want to figure out what district I'm in.

https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz....

Here you go.


*** mod note: fixed link

[Gass3268]

Were the current incumbents/special election candidates live:

PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-03: Bob Brady (D) (retiring), Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04:
PA-05: Pat Meehan (R) (Retiring)
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07: Charlie Dent (R) (Retiring)
PA-08: Lou Barletta (R) (Running for Senate), Matthew Cartwright (D)
PA-09:
PA-10: Scott Perry (R)
PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R) (Retiring)
PA-14:
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R), Connor Lamb (D) (Not 100% certain on this one as it's close)
PA-18: Mike Doyle (D), Rick Saccone (R)

Lamb Lives in Mt. Lebanon according to the Sec of State, which is in PA-17. He is an easy pick for November if he wins.

He's an easy pick even if he loses in a close race.

That 17th is a pretty great however. It combines the area of Allegheny County that swung the hardest to Clinton with Beaver County, which while swung hard to Trump, is still the friendliest of the suburban Pittsburgh counties to Democrats.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Can someone update this map so that it is accurate?

On it.

[Sestak]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

[Gass3268]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

[Sestak]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

[Gass3268]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

Yeah, probably Lean R right now.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

Yeah, probably Lean R right now.

I would say Lean D personally.

[Sestak]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

Yeah, probably Lean R right now.

Even with Lamb?

[Oryxslayer]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

Yeah, probably Lean R right now.

R+3.2. Inside the seat is:

-Beaver county, which is the most D-friendly of the R counties around Pittsburgh
-Pittsburgh North Suburbs, which are a bunch of historically R territory that swung hard to Clinton
-Pittsburgh far West Suburbs which are a mix of Hard R territory and areas with historic D trends downballot like the counties south of it
-Pittsburgh Near Suburbs South-West, which are a mix of D-leaning and Hard D, Mount Lebanon is  the "arm" of this region
-Penn Hills to the east of the City, which has some really hard D areas, including a buch of 50%+ AA Precincts close to the city. This is where the new dem base is.

Its not hard to see a dem path here, get Clinton numbers in the north Suburbs and traditional D numbers in Beaver.

So is Rothfus a strong incumbent? Well, he lost his challenge in the 2010 wave, and barely won in the New R seat in 2012. I'll find his COH soon. Rothfus currently has 1.2 Mil COH, so he is not without money.

[afleitch]

Good, the husband's seat is now PA-7.

[Greedo punched first]

Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

Why would boyle stay in 4 when he is a Philly congressman, the 2nd is drawn to elect a White Democrat, and contains his house?

Where would Dwight Evans go, to the 1st?

[Oryxslayer]

Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

Why would boyle stay in 4 when he is a Philly congressman, the 2nd is drawn to elect a White Democrat, and contains his house?

Where would Dwight Evans go, to the 1st?

The 3rd. The district that is 55% AA and drawn to elect a Minority congressman.

[Greedo punched first]

Who goes to PA-04, where much of that district is currently represented by Brendan Boyle?