New PA Maps In Effect
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Author Topic: New PA Maps In Effect  (Read 88115 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #700 on: February 19, 2018, 03:52:06 PM »
Dave Wasserman says PA-8 here (old 17) is now R+3. I'm seeing R+1 still in DRA, sot sure where he pulled that from.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #701 on: February 19, 2018, 03:56:07 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 19, 2018, 03:52:06 PM
Dave Wasserman says PA-8 here (old 17) is now R+3. I'm seeing R+1 still in DRA, sot sure where he pulled that from.

Yep, pretty sure it's a mistake.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #702 on: February 19, 2018, 03:56:47 PM »
Does anyone have the Obama-Romney numbers for this new map?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #703 on: February 19, 2018, 03:57:42 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on February 19, 2018, 03:41:59 PM
Any chance of a Critz or Jason Altmire comeback in the new 17th? I assume the addition of more of the Pittsburgh Metro could bode well for them...

Critz lives in and has his base in Johnston which is either in PA-13 or PA-15.  Altmire moved to Florida Tongue
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Doimper
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« Reply #704 on: February 19, 2018, 03:58:10 PM »
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Solid4096
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« Reply #705 on: February 19, 2018, 03:58:38 PM »
Apparently, the new PA-08 (old PA-17) is R+0.95. I must have slightly mis-shaped it when using Daves Redistricting to estimate (I got R+0.94). I got the new PA-07 (old PA-15) correct though, at D+0.51.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #706 on: February 19, 2018, 03:58:49 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on February 19, 2018, 03:41:59 PM
Any chance of a Critz or Jason Altmire comeback in the new 17th? I assume the addition of more of the Pittsburgh Metro could bode well for them...

Altmire moved to Florida and the territory that Critz won is outside the district.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #707 on: February 19, 2018, 03:59:20 PM »
Josh Kraushaar and other Republican pundits throwing a fit on twitter whining about how it's a "partisan map drawn by a Democratic court". lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #708 on: February 19, 2018, 04:01:07 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 19, 2018, 03:59:20 PM
Josh Kraushaar and other Republican pundits throwing a fit on twitter whining about how it's a "partisan map drawn by a Democratic court". lol

Yeah, there are a lot of Republican tears on Twitter right now.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #709 on: February 19, 2018, 04:01:50 PM »
So it looks like Conor Lamb will be Rothfus's challenger in November. Rip Keith.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #710 on: February 19, 2018, 04:04:20 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on February 19, 2018, 03:56:47 PM
Does anyone have the Obama-Romney numbers for this new map?

Nate Cohn has fused some numbers and calls it 9-9 in terms of Obama-Romney. I collect past results and some Obama-McCain numbers for competitive districts here.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #711 on: February 19, 2018, 04:07:45 PM »
Quote from: Foucaulf on February 19, 2018, 04:04:20 PM
Quote from: Virginia on February 19, 2018, 03:56:47 PM
Does anyone have the Obama-Romney numbers for this new map?

Nate Cohn has fused some numbers and calls it 9-9 in terms of Obama-Romney. I collect past results and some Obama-McCain numbers for competitive districts here.

Excellent! Thanks foucaulf. This is a superb map.

Everyone remember to bring your Republican tear jars when you browse social media today. Don't miss a drop Smiley
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #712 on: February 19, 2018, 04:07:58 PM »
Has anyone checked on Krazen?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #713 on: February 19, 2018, 04:10:02 PM »
I am surprised to hear that Obama won this PA-06 in 2012.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #714 on: February 19, 2018, 04:13:50 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 19, 2018, 04:10:02 PM
I am surprised to hear that Obama won this PA-06 in 2012.

He did well in Reading.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #715 on: February 19, 2018, 04:14:20 PM »

He is too busy defending another pedophile.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #716 on: February 19, 2018, 04:14:26 PM »
Can anyone tell if there are 2 Districts wholly within Philadelphia now?
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ERM64man
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« Reply #717 on: February 19, 2018, 04:14:46 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 04:28:54 PM by ERM64man »
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Dwight Evans (D)
PA-03 (Bob Brady's district): TBD
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-05 (Pat Meehan's district): TBD
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07 (Charlie Dent's district): TBD
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09 (Lou Barletta's district): TBD
PA-10 (unknown Harrisburg district): TBD
PA-11: Scott Perry (R) and Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R)
PA-14: TBD
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R)
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #718 on: February 19, 2018, 04:16:21 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 19, 2018, 04:14:26 PM
Can anyone tell if there are 2 Districts wholly within Philadelphia now?

Yes. 2 and 3 are entirly in the city, and 5 cuts in from Delaware to take excess pop.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #719 on: February 19, 2018, 04:18:14 PM »
Who will run in the new Harrisburg District?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #720 on: February 19, 2018, 04:18:18 PM »


I got the map done in DRA, or as close as I could without cutting precincts. I'll post a full analysis soon.
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Horus
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« Reply #721 on: February 19, 2018, 04:20:07 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on February 19, 2018, 04:18:14 PM
Who will run in the new Harrisburg District?

Does Holden live there?
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Orser67
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« Reply #722 on: February 19, 2018, 04:20:10 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 04:23:54 PM by Orser67 »
My predictions:

SEPA:

PA-1 (Fitzpatrick): Lean D
PA-2 (Brandon Boyle): Safe D
PA-3 (Dwight Evans): Safe D
PA-4 (Open): Safe D
PA-5 (Open): Safe D
PA-6 (Costello): Lean D

NEPA:

PA-7 (Open): Lean D
PA-8 (Cartwright): Lean D
PA-9 (Open): Safe R

Central PA:

PA-10 (Perry): Likely R
PA-11 (Smucker): Safe R
PA-12 (Marino): Safe R
PA-13 (Open): Safe R
PA-15 (Thompson): Safe R

Western PA:
PA-14 (Open): Safe R
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R
PA-17 (Rothfus): Lean R
PA-18 (Doyle): Safe D

Best case scenario is 11-7 for Democrats, but I expect it to be somewhere between 10D-8R and 10R-8 D in 2019.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #723 on: February 19, 2018, 04:21:15 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on February 19, 2018, 04:14:46 PM
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Dwight Evans (D)
PA-03 (Bob Brady's district): TBD
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-05 (Pat Meehan's district): TBD
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07 (Charlie Dent's district): TBD
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09 (Lou Barletta's district): TBD
PA-10 (unknown Harrisburg district): TBD
PA-11: Scott Perry (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R)
PA-14: TBD
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R)
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)

While this might be the closest to matching the current seats, it does not match where these folks live.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #724 on: February 19, 2018, 04:24:36 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on February 19, 2018, 04:14:46 PM
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Dwight Evans (D) Brendan Boyle (D) He lives in NE Philladelphia
PA-03 (Bob Brady's district): TBD Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D) TBD, This is Brady's seat now migrated due to unpacking
PA-05 (Pat Meehan's district): TBD
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07 (Charlie Dent's district): TBD
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09 (Lou Barletta's district): TBD
PA-10 (unknown Harrisburg district): TBD Scott Perry he lives north of York
PA-11: Scott Perry (R) Lloyd Smucker
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R) TBD
PA-14: TBD
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R)
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)

Corrections.
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