New PA Maps In Effect

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

The new 10th district only went for Trump by 9 - could Perry be in trouble here? Is this Holden's former seazt?

[Greedo punched first]

The new 10th district only went for Trump by 9 - could Perry be in trouble here? Is this Holden's former seazt?

The 10th is Holden's old seat. Does Perry run in the 10th? Holden might run in the 10th.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

New national congressional map with Pennsylvania added:




It only took me a faction of the time it took to draw the old Pennsylvania map...

[Boobs]

Ooo... the way the (new) 14th aligns with the Maryland-West Virginia border and the (new) 8th aligns with NY-19 is .... very nice...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Ooo... the way the (new) 14th aligns with the Maryland-West Virginia border and the (new) 8th aligns with NY-19 is .... very nice...

Indeed, freedom map!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

[Boss_Rahm]

Has anyone come across an overlay of the new districts on Google Maps? I want to figure out what district I'm in.

https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz....

Here you go.


*** mod note: fixed link

Thanks!

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

[LimoLiberal]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

No, if Saccone wins he'll just stay in PA-14 (former PA-18) as he's allowed to live out of district. But he's vulnerable to a primary challenge from that influential state senator from Westmoreland county that I don't remember the name of, or even Rothfus, if Rothfus doesn't want to face a competitive race. But if he doesn't get primaried he'll just continue to win in PA-14 easily.

[catographer]

Large district map, with new PA remedial plan.

[Oryxslayer]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

BTW, you in the 17th or the 18th now?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.

[publicunofficial]

Who goes to PA-04, where much of that district is currently represented by Brendan Boyle?

I'm curious if one of the D's running in the current PA-06 and PA-07 decide to run there instead.

[publicunofficial]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.

You don't need to live in a district to represent it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.

You don't need to live in a district to represent it.

You kind of have to.

[Kantakouzenos]

New national congressional map with Pennsylvania added:




It only took me a faction of the time it took to draw the old Pennsylvania map...

Looks good, thank you!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.

You don't need to live in a district to represent it.

You kind of have to.

This came up a lot in the GA-6 special election because Jon Ossoff actually lived in GA-5, just outside the boundaries of the 6th.  Some research by the Washington Post (cited here in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) showed that there were at least 20 current Representatives who lived outside their districts, generally due to cases where a shift of district lines had moved an incumbent to a different district.

Incidentally, if Ossoff had won, it appears that there would have been three sitting Congressmen living in John Lewis's GA-5.  In addition to Lewis, David Scott (GA-13) is also registered to vote in the 5th.

[Greedo punched first]

Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

[Gass3268]

Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

I wonder if Allyson Schwartz will jump back in here and Joe Sestak in the 5th.

[Sestak]

Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

I wonder if Allyson Schwartz will jump back in here and Joe Sestak in the 5th.

God I hope so.

[IceAgeComing]

Now why didn't a Democratic Supreme Court draw a Democratic-favored map here? What a wasted opportunity.

Think about this for a bit.

The reason that the court is redrawing this map is because they ruled that partisan gerrymandering violates the state constitution.  That's the precedent that we're working with here; and the reason that we have a court drawn map is because they couldn't come up with anything satisfactory.

Were the court to draw a Democratic-friendly map the Republicans would go to the federal Supreme Court and ask for intervention on this and honestly they'd probably likely intervene and they'd either override the state courts - returning the old map - or rule that their decision was right but that the court map didn't meet this new rule and order a new one.  The only thing that they could do - and indeed the right thing to do - that fits their rules and makes it a lot less likely for the federal Courts to pick it up is to draw a fair, non-partisan map.

[Oryxslayer]

Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

I wonder if Allyson Schwartz will jump back in here and Joe Sestak in the 5th.

I'm sure they would like to, but they might not have the easiest path back to congress. The national and pennsylvania democrats recruited a bunch of high quality candidates for the old 16th, 6th, and 7th seats. Now that the lines are cleared up, these candidates are going to scatter to the geographically compact seats. Those from Montgomery are going to run in the 4th, those from Delaware in the 5th, those from Chester in the 6th, and those from Lancaster get screwed (Wasserman said there are two dems with 300k+ who saw their campaigns die with this map).

[LimoLiberal]

Chrissy Houlahan is still running in the 6th (its number stayed the same), and she'll beat Costello in all likelihood. Hartman is still running in the 11th (past PA-16) but she has no chance against Smucker now. Don't know about the candidates running in the 5th (former PA-7).

[Greedo punched first]

Where candidates might run:
PA-01:Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Brendan Boyle (D)?
PA-03: Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D)?
PA-05: Joe Sestak (D)?
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07: ???
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09: ???
PA-10: Scott Perry (R), Tim Holden (D)?
PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino
PA-13: ???
PA-14: Rick Saccone (R), Conor Lamb (D)?
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R), Conor Lamb (D)?
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

So this is the 1st time that Bucks County is not wholly in PA-08 since the 1930s.