New PA Maps In Effect

[Badger]

Anyway,
Here are my new ratings:
Meehan's district: Safe Dem
Costello's district: lean Dem
Dent's district: Lean dem
Fitzpatrick's district: Toss up
Rothfus's district: Lean rep
The open seat in Harrisburg: lean rep


Opinions of these new ratings?

I think Rothfus loses before Fitzpatrick does, but both are certainly possible. Rothfus’s new district is very Democratic-friendly downballot and Trump and Toomey didn’t exactly crush it there. Likely R for Perry’s Harrisburg seat unless a big name D enters

Are you sure Rothfus's district is very democratic downballot? HRC carried this district by the same margin than Obama, it seems to me it is located in the Philly suburbs, not in the WWC West Pennsylvania area.

Beaver County? Oh hell yes

[Nyvin]

Trump urging Republicans to challenge map. Clearly he doesn't understand what gerrymandering is.

"Take elections away from you"??

So basically he's admitting that the gerrymandering was done so that Republicans can win office more easily?

[Gass3268]

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I really don't see this going anywhere after the Supreme Court already refused to stay.

[KingSweden]

I like this new map. It’s clean and contains clear communities of interest. My only quibble would be that 9th that seems like a hodgepodge of leftover districts. Otherwise a good map, a standard for the rest of the nation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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I really don't see this going anywhere after the Supreme Court already refused to stay.

Yep, and Trump's tweet makes it DOA if it already wasn't.

[Nyvin]

Democrats better prepare for the fact that this new map is DOA, the Republicans are going to take this case to the the overwhelmingly Republican 3rd circuit, meaning that it’s inevitable that one of those Federal judges will issue a stay order in the next few days that will prevent this map from being implemented in the 2018 Midterms.

The current make up of the 3rd circuit judges is 7D-5R with two vacancies.

[Ebsy]

They can't go to the appeals court, they have to go straight to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is the only court that can review State court decisions.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This map is pretty much final. Even with the Trump tweet, the Republican appeal is DOA.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They can't go to the appeals court, they have to go straight to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is the only court that can review State court decisions.

Isn't there a legal doctrine that forbids lower federal courts from adjudicating state supreme courts decisions?

[Kantakouzenos]

So how set in stone is this new map now (until redistricting happens again of course)?

[Orser67]

Democrats better prepare for the fact that this new map is DOA, the Republicans are going to take this case to the the overwhelmingly Republican 3rd circuit, meaning that it’s inevitable that one of those Federal judges will issue a stay order in the next few days that will prevent this map from being implemented in the 2018 Midterms.

Everything about this is wrong. The 3rd Circuit has 7 Democratic-appointed judges compared to 5 Republican-appointed judges. Appeals from state supreme courts go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court. The PA Supreme Court's ruling is very unlikely to be overturned given that the previous appeal attempt failed. And finally, don't capitalize "federal" unless it's part of a proper noun.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe if establishment Republicans and all Republicans for that matter, would start running on actual issues and concerns of real voters instead of trying to run on a "pushed" agenda, then maybe they wouldn't have to worry about a district containing Chester and Reading, or the Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver county.

[Badger]

Maybe if establishment Republicans and all Republicans for that matter, would start running on actual issues and concerns of real voters instead of trying to run on a "pushed" agenda, then maybe they wouldn't have to worry about a district containing Chester and Reading, or the Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver county.

Thank you!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Maybe if establishment Republicans and all Republicans for that matter, would start running on actual issues and concerns of real voters instead of trying to run on a "pushed" agenda, then maybe they wouldn't have to worry about a district containing Chester and Reading, or the Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver county.

Nah. Republicans need to talk about confederate statues, MS-13, the war on christimas and 10 commandment monuments.

[Atlas Force]

This map is pretty much final. Even Especially with the Trump tweet, the Republican appeal is DOA.

[Angel of Death]

FiveThirtyEight's take

[Nyvin]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

[Babeuf]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

[publicunofficial]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

Same. Hope Greg Edwards wins the primary for PA-07 (Formerly PA-15) now.

[Oryxslayer]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Ehh the fact that PA-10 (new) is now a R+5.5 seat that cuts two counties is a pretty clear soft D gerrymander - a hard D gerry in this region would also include State College. the rest of the map is fair.

[Nyvin]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Ehh the fact that PA-10 (new) is now a R+5.5 seat that cuts two counties is a pretty clear soft D gerrymander - a hard D gerry in this region would also include State College. the rest of the map is fair.

PA-10 would be the only part of the map I would question as a gerrymander.

But realistically it's taking it from Safe R to Likely R for a period of 2 election cycles.

[KingSweden]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

Same. Hope Greg Edwards wins the primary for PA-07 (Formerly PA-15) now.

Need to hope he becomes the anti-Morganelli candidate, honestly.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

Same. Hope Greg Edwards wins the primary for PA-07 (Formerly PA-15) now.

Need to hope he becomes the anti-Morganelli candidate, honestly.

Morganelli is a great recruit for Democrats in terms of taking the seat. In terms of advancing democratic policies?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

Same. Hope Greg Edwards wins the primary for PA-07 (Formerly PA-15) now.

Need to hope he becomes the anti-Morganelli candidate, honestly.

John Callahan could run.

[Badger]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Not to pile on my own party, but hell, I am passionately anti gerrymandering, in the Pennsylvania GOP deserves all the criticism it gets on this front. It's also worth adding that this 13 to 5 split came from repeated approximate 50 50 splits in the actual votes for the state's Congressional Delegation.

Anyone who wishes to try arguing that Republican gerrymandering is somehow "natural" do too concentrated Democratic strength in relatively compact urban areas need only look at map drawing abortions like the prior p a 7 and pa17 among others to see there is an EXTREMELY concerted and decidedly unnatural manipulation of District Lines to get that result.