New PA Maps In Effect

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

District 15 (old equivalent) 07 (new) seems like a D+0.51 District.

[Oryxslayer]

Trump v. Hillary numbers for each district, via Nate Cohn:



8-10 split.

1, 6, 7, 8, 10, and 17 are all some form of competitive.

So 5 Safe Dem - 7 Safe R - 6 competitive in one form or another. 10 and 17 kinda came from nowhere.

Lamb is 100% going against Rothfus in November if he wins.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

I think we’ll pick it up, honestly.  Curious to see if anyone (Costello?) will retire in light of the new map.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm shocked that the Allentown-centric district as well as the Bucks-centric one actually voted Clinton. Dent and Fitzpatrick better step up their game.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump v. Hillary numbers for each district, via Nate Cohn:



8-10 split.

With Cartwright, effectively 9-9. Could easily be an 11-7 map in a wave.

So much for Dems having to settle for 6-12 or 7-11 because of MUH GEOGRAPHY, LOL @ King Lear

[publicunofficial]

Republicans will almost certainly fight twice as hard to protect gerrymandering after this. All fair redistricting reform will be smeared as just replacing GOP gerrymanders with Dem ones

[Gass3268]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

With Cartwright, effectively 9-9. Could easily be an 11-7 map in a wave.

So much for Dems having to settle for 6-12 or 7-11 because of MUH GEOGRAPHY, LOL @ King Lear

Which 2 exactly will those wave seats come from? The only one I see is the Erie district if the Obama/Trump crowd comes home.

[YE]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

I think we’ll pick it up, honestly.  Curious to see if anyone (Costello?) will retire in light of the new map.

So 8 Clinton seats + Cartwright's seat + PA-17 means ceiling of 10 seats come November?

[Doimper]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

I think we’ll pick it up, honestly.  Curious to see if anyone (Costello?) will retire in light of the new map.

So 8 Clinton seats + Cartwright's seat + PA-17 means ceiling of 10 seats come November?

We could nab that 10 in a wave.

[LimoLiberal]

With Cartwright, effectively 9-9. Could easily be an 11-7 map in a wave.

So much for Dems having to settle for 6-12 or 7-11 because of MUH GEOGRAPHY, LOL @ King Lear

Which 2 exactly will those wave seats come from? The only one I see is the Erie district if the Obama/Trump crowd comes home.

The Pittsburgh suburbs district and the Harrisburg district. New PA-10 and PA-17. Lamb will almost certainly run in PA-17 against Rothfus and is probably favored - a Trump +2 district that every other statewide democrat wins easily in a blue environment.

[Gass3268]

[LimoLiberal]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

Don't get confused. OLD PA-17 was the Scranton - Wilkes-Barre district that Cartwright held. The NEW one is the western Pittsburgh suburbs. Pretty sure Horus was referring to the new one.

[Gass3268]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

Don't get confused. OLD PA-17 was the Scranton - Wilkes-Barre district that Cartwright held. The NEW one is the western Pittsburgh suburbs. Pretty sure Horus was referring to the new one.

Oh man, you are right, I'm going to get so confused.

[Classic Conservative]

Supposedly Saccone and Lamb were both drawn out of the district+

[LimoLiberal]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

Don't get confused. OLD PA-17 was the Scranton - Wilkes-Barre district that Cartwright held. The NEW one is the western Pittsburgh suburbs. Pretty sure Horus was referring to the new one.

Oh man, you are right, I'm going to get so confused.

yeah we should probably sticky the map of the new districts so people can refer back to it... it's going to get very confusing very fast.

[Gass3268]

Supposedly Saccone and Lamb were both drawn out of the district+

Yup, both were drawn into Doyle's Pittsburgh district.

[Classic Conservative]

Supposedly Saccone and Lamb were both drawn out of the district+

Yup, both were drawn into Doyle's Pittsburgh district.

So is this special useless or will the winner move?

[Doimper]

Supposedly Saccone and Lamb were both drawn out of the district+

Yup, both were drawn into Doyle's Pittsburgh district.

So is this special useless or will the winner move?

If Lamb wins, I assume he's going to go for the new 17th in November. Saccone would be extremely safe in this new district, so he'll probably want to stay.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Any chance of a Critz or Jason Altmire comeback in the new 17th? I assume the addition of more of the Pittsburgh Metro could bode well for them...

[Holmes]

Supposedly Saccone and Lamb were both drawn out of the district+

Yup, both were drawn into Doyle's Pittsburgh district.

So is this special useless or will the winner move?

It's up to the winner.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, so this is a potential 4 seat pick up for the Democrats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm shocked that the Allentown-centric district as well as the Bucks-centric one actually voted Clinton. Dent and Fitzpatrick better step up their game.

Dent has retired.

[windjammer]

Wow, so this is a potential 4 seat pick up for the Democrats.

5 PICK UPS

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

2018 Ratings:

01: Likely D
02: Safe D
03: Safe D
04: Safe D
05: Safe D
06: Likely D
07: Lean D
08: Likely D
09: Safe R
10: Lean R
11: Safe R
12: Safe R
13: Safe R
14: Safe R
15: Safe R
16: Safe R
17: Lean D
18: Safe D