New PA Maps In Effect

[henster]

Oral arguments began in the state Supreme Court on the constitutionaly of the state's constitutional maps and whether they are a partisan gerrymander.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pa-gerrymandering-republicans-partisan-fair-elections-20180117.html

Nate Cohn also presented some potential fair maps that could be drawn.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/17/upshot/pennsylvania-gerrymandering.html?_r=0

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The new map might be a three seat pick up for the democrats. The districts containing Eerie, Allentown, and Susquehanna county. I don't think Penn State will be enough to flip the one on the middle.

The State SC is 5-2 democrat. I think we al know how this is going to work out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd love to see the exact 2012 and 2016 results for Cohn's fair districts map.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The new map could potentially be a four seat pick up for the Democrats in November.

The current map has 5 very vulnerable districts: 06, 07, 08, 15, 16.

Also, I still think that the Washington Post "nonpartisan" map is a slight Republican gerrymander; there is no reason for there to be only 1 Democratic District in the Pittsburgh area on a nonpartisan map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new map could potentially be a four seat pick up for the Democrats in November.

The current map has 5 very vulnerable districts: 06, 07, 08, 15, 16.

Also, I still think that the Washington Post "nonpartisan" map is a slight Republican gerrymander; there is no reason for there to be only 1 Democratic District in the Pittsburgh area on a nonpartisan map.

The Pittsburgh area outside of Allegheny County itself (which makes up little more than one district on its own) is very Republican these days.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The new map could potentially be a four seat pick up for the Democrats in November.

The current map has 5 very vulnerable districts: 06, 07, 08, 15, 16.

Also, I still think that the Washington Post "nonpartisan" map is a slight Republican gerrymander; there is no reason for there to be only 1 Democratic District in the Pittsburgh area on a nonpartisan map.

The Pittsburgh area outside of Allegheny County itself (which makes up little more than one district on its own) is very Republican these days.

Not really. Boroughs like Braddock, Penn Hills, Monroeville, Duquesne, etc. are still Democratic. The townships along the Allegheny River could take the Northern Pittsburgh district. That will probably be the Dem strategy.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just going to post my response from the last PA thread, which was in responce to a DKE map. I will post analysis afterwards.

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In response to two other things here - Erie and Allegheny. A Erie based seat that slid down the western boarder of PA was R+1 in 2008, when Obama barely won it. Since then, the counties south of Erie moved right at light speed - even before Trump. In 2016, Erie caught up with the neighbours. At best right now - R+6. At worst - R+10.

Allegheny meanwhile is forced under a fair map into a dem pack. The prime reason is simple - the county lacks the pop and needs to grab a neighbour if it wants a second seat. However all the bordering counties are Titanium R. So, in order to get a seat that is at least competative, the Allegheny part needs to be very dem - no? The only way such a cut comes about is if the map is a full on dem gerrymander, and Pittsburgh is used to pack not only the Republican leaning suburbs to the north, but also more mixed ares to the west. Best a fair map could do around here is R+6, however I tend to prefer not having a second Allegheny seat in my maps to minimize cuts elsewhere.

I'm also skeptical of Cohns map largely because he cuts the Lackawanna+Luzure+Monroe pairing. That district is 100% perfect, not needing cuts to any other counties. It is entirely made up of Union/WWC small towns in the Northeast corner. It is a perfect community of interest. Why the hell would ya cut it?

Overall, the average new PA map sees: 1 dem gain in delaware, the Chester and Bucks seats remain competitive, and Allentown becomes more competitive. Its hard to see dems ever gain a majority here, unless they win loaner seats in central PA that are currently open.


Something else that should be said is that a entirely separate case on PAs congressional maps was thrown out by the District court last week. Whether this was simply more conservative judges, or an understanding that this case, and the Wisconsin case before the supreme court made that one redundant, is a question that I don't know the answer to.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

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No, this is far from perfect. While these 3 Counties combined are just right for a Congressional District, combining these forces a different district to have an awful shape. To the North and East, Pike, Wayne, and Susquehanna Counties must then be put together, and then the District must be extended Southward and Westward in a way that creates a very awkward Horseshoe shape.

[henster]

I'm just going to post my response from the last PA thread, which was in responce to a DKE map. I will post analysis afterwards.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In response to two other things here - Erie and Allegheny. A Erie based seat that slid down the western boarder of PA was R+1 in 2008, when Obama barely won it. Since then, the counties south of Erie moved right at light speed - even before Trump. In 2016, Erie caught up with the neighbours. At best right now - R+6. At worst - R+10.

Allegheny meanwhile is forced under a fair map into a dem pack. The prime reason is simple - the county lacks the pop and needs to grab a neighbour if it wants a second seat. However all the bordering counties are Titanium R. So, in order to get a seat that is at least competative, the Allegheny part needs to be very dem - no? The only way such a cut comes about is if the map is a full on dem gerrymander, and Pittsburgh is used to pack not only the Republican leaning suburbs to the north, but also more mixed ares to the west. Best a fair map could do around here is R+6, however I tend to prefer not having a second Allegheny seat in my maps to minimize cuts elsewhere.

I'm also skeptical of Cohns map largely because he cuts the Lackawanna+Luzure+Monroe pairing. That district is 100% perfect, not needing cuts to any other counties. It is entirely made up of Union/WWC small towns in the Northeast corner. It is a perfect community of interest. Why the hell would ya cut it?

Overall, the average new PA map sees: 1 dem gain in delaware, the Chester and Bucks seats remain competitive, and Allentown becomes more competitive. Its hard to see dems ever gain a majority here, unless they win loaner seats in central PA that are currently open.


Something else that should be said is that a entirely separate case on PAs congressional maps was thrown out by the District court last week. Whether this was simply more conservative judges, or an understanding that this case, and the Wisconsin case before the supreme court made that one redundant, is a question that I don't know the answer to.

The District Court was a federal case and this one is a state case. The whole basis is that the map violates the state constitution.

[Oryxslayer]

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No, this is far from perfect. While these 3 Counties combined are just right for a Congressional District, combining these forces a different district to have an awful shape. To the North and East, Pike, Wayne, and Susquehanna Counties must then be put together, and then the District must be extended Southward and Westward in a way that creates a very awkward Horseshoe shape.

Eh to each their own - I have always liked that district. It keeps the Susquehanna valley community of interest together and keeps the NYC/NJ exurban Pike area out of a WWC based seat. Plus the fact that it spirals (even as it keeps counties and communities whole) also makes sense since this is a 'T' seat - the Right arm of the T needs to reach the perpendicular part eventually. To each their own though. I like to minimize county cuts and keeping communities intact, you might like  nice lines on a map - when you don't consider county lines ofc.

[Virginiá]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Appears Open To Striking Down Gerrymandered Map

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pennsylvania-gerrymandering_us_5a5f8856e4b046f0811c5bbe?f7e

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Look at this fresh hell...

[LimoLiberal]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Appears Open To Striking Down Gerrymandered Map

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pennsylvania-gerrymandering_us_5a5f8856e4b046f0811c5bbe?f7e

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Major boon for Democratic house chances if they get this ruling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The court is 5-2 democrat. I would be shell shocked if they didn't strike it down.

[IceSpear]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have complete faith in the State SC. We will have fair congressional elections by November. No need to worry, Atlas

[publicunofficial]

I'd love to see the exact 2012 and 2016 results for Cohn's fair districts map.

I tried my best to recreate Cohn's map in Dave's Redistricting and got these PVI's:


1 (East Philly) - D+31.12
2 (West Philly) - D+38.97
3 (Erie) - R+5.95
4 (York) - R+14.44
5 (State College/Rural West Penn.) - R+17.06
6 (Westchester/Lancaster) - R+1
7 (Delaware County) - D+11.41
8 (Bucks County) - R+0.92
9 (Altoona/Rural West Penn.) - R+20.87
10 (Newcastle/Williamsport/Rural East Penn.) - R+16.15
11 (Harrisburg) - R+9.95
12 (Pittsburgh suburbs/Exurbs) - R+8
13 (Montgomery County) - D+6.19
14 (Pittsburgh) - D+14.86
15 (Allentown) - R+0.65
16 (Berks/Lebanon counties) - R+10.6
17 (Scranton-Wilkes Barre) - D+0.03
18 (SWPA) - R+13.23


So 4 Safe D, 1 Likely D, 4 Toss-Ups, 1 Lean R, 2 Likely R, 6 Safe R

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fingers crossed for the SC to do the right thing.

I'd love to see the exact 2012 and 2016 results for Cohn's fair districts map.

I tried my best to recreate Cohn's map in Dave's Redistricting and got these PVI's:


1 (East Philly) - D+31.12
2 (West Philly) - D+38.97
3 (Erie) - R+5.95
4 (York) - R+14.44
5 (State College/Rural West Penn.) - R+17.06
6 (Westchester/Lancaster) - R+1
7 (Delaware County) - D+11.41
8 (Bucks County) - R+0.92
9 (Altoona/Rural West Penn.) - R+20.87
10 (Newcastle/Williamsport/Rural East Penn.) - R+16.15
11 (Harrisburg) - R+9.95
12 (Pittsburgh suburbs/Exurbs) - R+8
13 (Montgomery County) - D+6.19
14 (Pittsburgh) - D+14.86
15 (Allentown) - R+0.65
16 (Berks/Lebanon counties) - R+10.6
17 (Scranton-Wilkes Barre) - D+0.03
18 (SWPA) - R+13.23


So 4 Safe D, 1 Likely D, 4 Toss-Ups, 1 Lean R, 2 Likely R, 6 Safe R

Looks like this could easily be a 9-9 map, especially since the Allentown and Scranton districts are probably a lot more Democratic downballot than their PVI suggests, since 2016 was so anomalous in terms of WWC Republican support. I'd probably rank those two as lean-D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

[Oryxslayer]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

Well Cohn had it in the NYT piece as a strawman to show how harsh the Pubs could be with the map. However, if I was to guess who made it, it was probably Dave Wasserman since he and 538 are coming out with a bunch of scenarios in all 50 states soon. On the other hand, perhaps I am blind, and can't see a author on the page.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

Well Cohn had it in the NYT piece as a strawman to show how harsh the Pubs could be with the map. However, if I was to guess who made it, it was probably Dave Wasserman since he and 538 are coming out with a bunch of scenarios in all 50 states soon. On the other hand, perhaps I am blind, and can't see a author on the page.

Thanks.

[LimoLiberal]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

Well Cohn had it in the NYT piece as a strawman to show how harsh the Pubs could be with the map. However, if I was to guess who made it, it was probably Dave Wasserman since he and 538 are coming out with a bunch of scenarios in all 50 states soon. On the other hand, perhaps I am blind, and can't see a author on the page.

Wasserman probably thinks that this is a fair map, because muh Democrats gerrymandered too!111!

[Virginiá]

Rick Hasen noted that Republicans seem to be indicating they will appeal to the US Supreme Court, even though such an appeal doesn't seem possible. He said they might try to argue that state courts don't have the authority to order new maps, which is the legislature's power. It's not out of the question that the Supreme Court would take the case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rick Hasen noted that Republicans seem to be indicating they will appeal to the US Supreme Court, even though such an appeal doesn't seem possible. He said they might try to argue that state courts don't have the authority to order new maps, which is the legislature's power. It's not out of the question that the Supreme Court would take the case.

Wasn't this issue already resolved by the Supreme Court, in favor of a loose understanding of the term "legislature"?