Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Holmes]

D+4 spread with one more day to go.

[LimoLiberal]

D+4 spread with one more day to go.

I'm excited to make the Texas county map comparing D primary total votes to R primary total votes.

[MT Treasurer]

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[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

My roommate voted for White in the primary, reluctantly it seems. Texas Dems seem to be giving up this seat. Which is sad, since you never know what can develop in Texas alongside someone like Beto O'Rourke. Needless to say, my roommate was extremely excited to vote for O'Rourke.

[Former Kentuckian]

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Warms my heart, seriously.

[CatoMinor]

I got home from work yesterday to find out O'Rouke was in town and had just finished speaking a mile away.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Keep in mind that most of these early vote totals are coming from the 15 biggest counties, and Republicans probably have a strong lead elsewhere.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My roommate voted for White in the primary, reluctantly it seems. Texas Dems seem to be giving up this seat. Which is sad, since you never know what can develop in Texas alongside someone like Beto O'Rourke. Needless to say, my roommate was extremely excited to vote for O'Rourke.

Andrew White’s not half bad compared to Wendy Davis, Tony Sanchez, and Chris Bell

[Holmes]

Keep in mind that most of these early vote totals are coming from the 15 biggest counties, and Republicans probably have a strong lead elsewhere.

Probably, but these 15 counties account for 2/3 of the state, and I believe 8 of Clinton's 10 best counties were not part of these 15.

[Jeppe]

Keep in mind that most of these early vote totals are coming from the 15 biggest counties, and Republicans probably have a strong lead elsewhere.

Probably, but these 15 counties account for 2/3 of the state, and I believe 8 of Clinton's 10 best counties were not part of these 15.

Yeah South Texas is very Democratic and is generally not large enough to be in the top 15. A lot of the rural Republican counties are tiny too, some with only dozens or hundreds of votes.

[Skill and Chance]

Keep in mind that most of these early vote totals are coming from the 15 biggest counties, and Republicans probably have a strong lead elsewhere.

Probably, but these 15 counties account for 2/3 of the state, and I believe 8 of Clinton's 10 best counties were not part of these 15.

Yeah South Texas is very Democratic and is generally not large enough to be in the top 15. A lot of the rural Republican counties are tiny too, some with only dozens or hundreds of votes.

This.  The GOP vote in Texas is actually geographically packed.  If in some future election, the statewide legislative vote was GOP+2-4, Democrats would probably win both chambers and almost certainly take the lower house.  This skew is a feature of many Southwestern states, particularly in the chamber with more districts (see how close the Dems are to parity in AZ, for example).

[Former Kentuckian]

Do y'all think Lupe Valdez's visit to the California Dem convention in the last stretch of the primary will hurt her? I usually tune out social media chatter but there are a lot of Dems on Twitter and Facebook who seem mad at her for flying out there instead of staying in the state to campaign. Think word of mouth might hurt her on election day?

[Skill and Chance]

Do y'all think Lupe Valdez's visit to the California Dem convention in the last stretch of the primary will hurt her? I usually tune out social media chatter but there are a lot of Dems on Twitter and Facebook who seem mad at her for flying out there instead of staying in the state to campaign. Think word of mouth might hurt her on election day?

I think White was a clear favorite anyway given how many endorsements he is getting out of DFW.  This might foreclose the possibility of Valdez forcing him into a runoff, though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dallas County (my home), is currently breaking about 63-37 in favor of democrats in the primary so far. If we can keep this margin up, there is a fighting chance that we can get more votes for all the dems in the TX 32nd cd primary (my cd) than for Pete Sessions and the GOP in their primary for the 32nd cd. That would give Sessions a scare. This is the only congressional district in DFW that is even marginally competetive.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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Yeah, Abbot isn't in any danger of losing. at worst he's still going to win by 10%.

[Former Kentuckian]

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Yeah, Abbot isn't in any danger of losing. at worst he's still going to win by 10%.

I'd love if the Dem nominee could replicate Hillary's 2016 numbers from the general in Texas. I'm rooting for the Dem to simply get above 40% lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

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Yeah, Abbot isn't in any danger of losing. at worst he's still going to win by 10%.

I'd love if the Dem nominee could replicate Hillary's 2016 numbers from the general in Texas. I'm rooting for the Dem to simply get above 40% lol

Above 40% is very easy to get -- even Wendy Davis of all people almost got 40%. Ted Cruz's opponent in 2012 that raised like $200,000 total got 42% of the vote.

But still, getting 42% of the vote is still... -12 to -16 depending on how much of the vote third parties get.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://apps.texastribune.org/38-texas-legislative-primary-races-to-watch/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=1520018798 Abandoning my spreadsheet in favor of this, more simplified

[Terry the Fat Shark]

also this

https://apps.texastribune.org/2018-texas-congressional-primaries-to-watch/

[VPH]

Will NYT be showing results for this?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Will NYT be showing results for this?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html
Should show up sometime later tomorrow. 

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I just voted in the GOP primary.....GOP primary line was decent, longer when I left, dem turnout also looked higher than I usually see it, though GOP line was longer in my Suburban Tarrant County precinct

[Former Kentuckian]

Will NYT be showing results for this?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html
Should show up sometime later tomorrow. 

Politico is covering the results, too: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/?lo=ap_a1

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election NYT page is up with neat maps and such, they have statewide races, Congress race, state legislature, and some specific race pages.

[Canis]

I just voted in the GOP primary.....GOP primary line was decent, longer when I left, dem turnout also looked higher than I usually see it, though GOP line was longer in my Suburban Tarrant County precinct

Who did you support?