Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[CatoMinor]

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

That would literally take some Jones vs Moore ridiculous scenario to break 80% in Travis which I don't see happening.

The more realistic path would be 65%-70% in Travis. 60-65% in Bexar, 55-58% in Harris, 65% in Dallas. Flipping Tarrant, Nueces, Brazos, Jefferson, Williamson, and Hays Counties, and narrowing the gap in Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston, and Denton counties.

The 2016 swing map shows Democrats making gains for the most part exactly where they need to, with the exception of the South Texas and the Valley.   

[wxtransit]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

[wxtransit]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

[wxtransit]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

This. If he makes counties like Collin (which voted for Trump by 55-38) into about a 7-10 point game, then I'd say Beto's on track for victory. On the other hand, if they are still in Trump's win margin territory, then Beto's pretty much toast, unless he gets great turnout from the cities (possible) and the border (unlikely).

[CatoMinor]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

Optomistally 5%, realistically 2-3%. The LPTX is slowley bure surely growing. more counties are being organized and new activists are popping up. Heck, one of the gubernatorial candidates is an elected official from the Austin area. But we face a pretty big headwind when Abbot is relativly popular and if the dems nominate Valdez she can solidify much of the Dem base, so no ridding the coattails of a protest vote this year

[wxtransit]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

Optomistally 5%, realistically 2-3%. The LPTX is slowley bure surely growing. more counties are being organized and new activists are popping up. Heck, one of the gubernatorial candidates is an elected official from the Austin area. But we face a pretty big headwind when Abbot is relativly popular and if the dems nominate Valdez she can solidify much of the Dem base, so no ridding the coattails of a protest vote this year

True. Well that's interesting to hear, I never thought about the Libertarians.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

I was thinking the path to victory in a Republican Gulf Coast state right now is beating Clinton by 15% in the big cities and college towns while little changes elsewhere.  Maybe that is crazy, but it's roughly what happened in Alabama last December.

[wxtransit]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

I was thinking the path to victory in a Republican Gulf Coast state right now is beating Clinton by 15% in the big cities and college towns while little changes elsewhere.  Maybe that is crazy, but it's roughly what happened in Alabama last December.

Right, but that only works for Gulf Coast states. Even though Texas has a part of the Gulf Coast, it's important to remember that is a very small part of Texas and for this reason the state does not behave like a Deep South state, because it is not a Deep South state.

[CatoMinor]

The part of Texas that is comparable to the Deep South is only the eastern most half of East Texas, Deep East Texas.

[Indy Texas]

Texas simply does not have enough African-Americans for Doug Jones or Ralph Northam to be meaningful proof-of-concept for a Democratic victory. Texas actually had a black population (11.8%) that was below the national average (12.6%) in the 2010 census. It is by far the least black of any ex-Confederate state.

So Texas Democrats have to deal with fewer African-American votes to go after, a Hispanic population that is far less politically engaged and far more open to Republicans than California's, and a white population that lacks sufficient quantities of the socially liberal upscale suburbanites who live in Northern Virginia.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

[CatoMinor]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

Dude, Hillary got f'ing 67%. Beto got 76% in the D vs R primary vote (even as R's outvoted D's by 20% statewide). The young republicans in Austin prob won't turnout whereas the young democrats will, leading to a lopside margin there. It's also increased its population by 20% since 2010. I'm pretty sure Beto easily breaks 70 and gets 75%.

I really don't think you realize how far gone Austin is. they are 100% moonbats.

[CatoMinor]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

Dude, Hillary got f'ing 67%. Beto got 76% in the D vs R primary vote (even as R's outvoted D's by 20% statewide). The young republicans in Austin prob won't turnout whereas the young democrats will, leading to a lopside margin there. It's also increased its population by 20% since 2010. I'm pretty sure Beto easily breaks 70 and gets 75%.

I really don't think you realize how far gone Austin is. they are 100% moonbats.

Im in Austin quite a bit, and in the process of moving there, Id like to think I have a slightly better idea of the area. The primary numbers are a decent measure of enthusiasm but not gospel on how the general will turn out. Austin is very leftwing for TX  and moving further left by the day, but there are still a sizable portion of GOP voters. Its not San Francisco county yet.

And Hilldawg got 65.7

[Bidenworth2020]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

Dude, Hillary got f'ing 67%. Beto got 76% in the D vs R primary vote (even as R's outvoted D's by 20% statewide). The young republicans in Austin prob won't turnout whereas the young democrats will, leading to a lopside margin there. It's also increased its population by 20% since 2010. I'm pretty sure Beto easily breaks 70 and gets 75%.

I really don't think you realize how far gone Austin is. they are 100% moonbats.

Im in Austin quite a bit, and in the process of moving there, Id like to think I have a slightly better idea of the area. The primary numbers are a decent measure of enthusiasm but not gospel on how the general will turn out. Austin is very leftwing for TX  and moving further left by the day, but there are still a sizable portion of GOP voters. Its not San Francisco county yet.

And Hilldawg got 65.7

pretty crazy bush won there in 2000

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

Dude, Hillary got f'ing 67%. Beto got 76% in the D vs R primary vote (even as R's outvoted D's by 20% statewide). The young republicans in Austin prob won't turnout whereas the young democrats will, leading to a lopside margin there. It's also increased its population by 20% since 2010. I'm pretty sure Beto easily breaks 70 and gets 75%.

I really don't think you realize how far gone Austin is. they are 100% moonbats.

Im in Austin quite a bit, and in the process of moving there, Id like to think I have a slightly better idea of the area. The primary numbers are a decent measure of enthusiasm but not gospel on how the general will turn out. Austin is very leftwing for TX  and moving further left by the day, but there are still a sizable portion of GOP voters. Its not San Francisco county yet.

And Hilldawg got 65.7

Oh my bad lol. If Hillary only got 65.7, then I guess 72/73% would make more sense then.

[CatoMinor]

In a YUGE upset, Mark Tippets has won the nomination of the Libertarians for Governor. He beat Kathie Glass, Patrick Smith, and Kory Watkins.

His campaign has the standard LP positions but he is placing emphasis on opposing Trump and his immigration policies, most notably his wall. His Spanish is pretty good as well.

[Young Conservative]

A a YUGE upset, Mark Tippets has won the nomination of the Libertarians for Governor. He beat Kathie Glass, Patrick Smith, and Kory Watkins.

His campaign has the standard LP positions but he is placing emphasis on opposing Trump and his immigration policies, most notably his wall. His Spanish is pretty good as well.

Bad for Dems, good for Repubs.

[CatoMinor]

A a YUGE upset, Mark Tippets has won the nomination of the Libertarians for Governor. He beat Kathie Glass, Patrick Smith, and Kory Watkins.

His campaign has the standard LP positions but he is placing emphasis on opposing Trump and his immigration policies, most notably his wall. His Spanish is pretty good as well.

Bad for Dems, good for Repubs.

Abbot is popular enough that it likely won't make a difference to either of them. It would only matter if the race was close, which I don't see happening. For the LP campaign the real objective is getting 5% so they can keep automatic ballot access.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/02/valdez-agrees-debate-white-may-11-austin/

Valdez and White have agreed to debate on May 11th in Austin

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/15/texas-democrats-gubernatorial-runoff-lupe-valdez-andrew-white/
Lupe Valdez finally outraised Andrew White, but both still put up kind of weak numbers, especially when you consider Abbott has a 41 million dollar warchest....

Seems like a lot of the fundraising is going to House D candidates and Beto O'Rourke and that democrats aren't super excited about the governor race, probably doesn't help that both jumped in so late as well....

Anywho, the runoff for Governor is on Tuesday.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/may15.shtml Turnout is also quite low so far in the first 2 days of early voting, there are 2 more days (today and tomorrow) and this data does not include yesterday, but turnout will be much lower, as you would expect, may impact the results...

[Former Kentuckian]

Thoughts on who the nominee will be?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Thoughts on who the nominee will be?

Most likely Valdez but it wouldn't shock me if things were close through the night on Tuesday

[CatoMinor]

I expect Valdez will win in the high 50's to low 60's. It could be closer but I would be suprisd if White won.