Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Former Kentuckian]

Is Texas fast, slow, or somewhere in the middle when it comes to reporting results?

[Gass3268]

Is Texas fast, slow, or somewhere in the middle when it comes to reporting results?

I read somewhere that the early vote will dump early.

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/971190460373962752

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/971190460373962752

Excellent!

[MAINEiac4434]

So whose idea was it at NYT to have both Andrew White and Lupe Valdez as the exact same shade of blue.

[Oryxslayer]

So whose idea was it at NYT to have both Andrew White and Lupe Valdez as the exact same shade of blue.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So whose idea was it at NYT to have both Andrew White and Lupe Valdez as the exact same shade of blue.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT finally gets the memo and changes white to green. Pretty clear geographic split: Valdez winning South and North-Center, White winning the East and Gulf-lands.

[Former Kentuckian]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

[Greedo punched first]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

Who wins primary runoff, Valdez or White?

[Former Kentuckian]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

Who wins primary runoff, Valdez or White?

Not sure, but I do know White has money for a run-off and Valdez doesn't. White has about a million in the bank. Valdez has less than $100,000, if I remember correctly.

[Gass3268]

Special guest at the George P. Bush victory party:

[Jeppe]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

Who wins primary runoff, Valdez or White?

Easily Valdez.

[KingSweden]

Special guest at the George P. Bush victory party:

Quick somebody bust out the Jeb! Meme

[henster]

The TX primary seems like it could be a good for Villaraigosa, a lot of Hispanic voters looking at last names.

[Jeppe]

The TX primary seems like it could be a good for Villaraigosa, a lot of Hispanic voters looking at last names.

It could also boost random candidates like Amanda Renteria.

[Former Kentuckian]

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is now 1,010,270 with 98% reporting. Looks like this is the best turnout for a Democratic gubernatorial primary in decades:

2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 554,014 votes
2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 679,877 votes
2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 508,602 votes
2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,003,388 votes
1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 492,419   votes
1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,036,944 votes

[junior chįmp]

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is now 1,010,270 with 98% reporting. Looks like this is the best turnout for a Democratic gubernatorial primary in decades:

2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 554,014 votes
2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 679,877 votes
2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 508,602 votes
2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,003,388 votes
1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 492,419   votes
1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,036,944 votes

During the 1994 gubentorial primaries, there were 557,340 votes cast in the Republican primary and 1,036,944 votes cast in the Democratic primary.... Republican George Bush won anyway by 7.5% in the general

[Adam Griffin]

Loving County:

Clinton Pres 2016: 4 votes
Dem Primary 2018: 8 votes

SURGE INCOMING

[Adam Griffin]

In all seriousness, I would point out that - at least in the preliminary counts for Senate - the GOP fell under 60% of the two-party primary electorate (presumably for the first time in many years). GOP voters made up approximately 60.1% of primary voters in the gubernatorial race and 59.8% of primary voters in the senatorial race - and when all is said and done, the gubernatorial race may be below 60% as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at some tentative turnout numbers in the Dem primary compared to Clinton's 2016 vote share. Statewide, voters equivalent to 26.7% of Clinton's 2016 total pulled a Democratic primary ballot.

Shown below (left) is a map of that - please take into account some counties have not yet fully reported or have reported at all - with turnout at 40% or greater being the darkest shade of green.

On the right, you'll see a simple measurement of the same metric broken down into two categories and compared to the statewide total; counties where Dem primary turnout was less than 26.7% of Clinton's vote share are red, and counties where it is more are green.

If there's any indicator of a potential midterm surge in Texas from tonight's results, then you pretty much have to look at the suburbs between Austin/San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley as where it will most likely materialize...and even in the case of RGV, it may just be a case of otherwise reliable Democrats coming home who didn't vote in '16 or who voted Trump. It looks like the suburbrons of Dallas and Houston aren't ready to abandon their party just yet (unless, of course, there is huge movement across the entire state, which wouldn't be immediately discernible looking at this set of numbers).

[Gustaf]

But how does Texas party reg work? I'd imagine a lot of Romney-Clinton type voters wouldn't be switching party reg and might still prefer to voice a preference in a GOP primary but it doesn't mean they won't swing to voting D in the midterms.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

But how does Texas party reg work? I'd imagine a lot of Romney-Clinton type voters wouldn't be switching party reg and might still prefer to voice a preference in a GOP primary but it doesn't mean they won't swing to voting D in the midterms.

We don't really have party registration, you can vote in whichever primary you want to vote in, but you also have to vote in the same party for the runoff, that is all.

[Former Kentuckian]

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is now 1,010,270 with 98% reporting. Looks like this is the best turnout for a Democratic gubernatorial primary in decades:

2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 554,014 votes
2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 679,877 votes
2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 508,602 votes
2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,003,388 votes
1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 492,419   votes
1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,036,944 votes

During the 1994 gubentorial primaries, there were 557,340 votes cast in the Republican primary and 1,036,944 votes cast in the Democratic primary.... Republican George Bush won anyway by 7.5% in the general

I'm not making any judgment on the general based on these numbers. I'm just saying that this was the best Dem turnout for a gubernatorial primary in decades.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is now 1,010,270 with 98% reporting. Looks like this is the best turnout for a Democratic gubernatorial primary in decades:

2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 554,014 votes
2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 679,877 votes
2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 508,602 votes
2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,003,388 votes
1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 492,419   votes
1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary: 1,036,944 votes

During the 1994 gubentorial primaries, there were 557,340 votes cast in the Republican primary and 1,036,944 votes cast in the Democratic primary.... Republican George Bush won anyway by 7.5% in the general

I'm not making any judgment on the general based on these numbers. I'm just saying that this was the best Dem turnout for a gubernatorial primary in decades.

Is that adjusted to population % though? Texas has gained a massive amount of people since then.

Tons of runoffs, but the main statewide one is Democratic Governor between Lupe Valdez and Andrew White, Valdez is not guaranteed to win (others have won on the first round and then lost the runoff), but she certainly has a running start. All Texas runoffs are on May 22nd.