Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yay Lupe! Now on to her November suicide (figurative) run!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

What's your point?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

What's your point?

my point is even with the combo of their money it's not nearly enough to make a horrible nominee like Lupe Valdez, who has a horrendous track record as Dallas County Sheriff (and I mean that in the most liberal way possible) and basically ran 100% on identity politics, any more electable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

What's your point?

my point is even with the combo of their money it's not nearly enough to make a horrible nominee like Lupe Valdez, who has a horrendous track record as Dallas County Sheriff (and I mean that in the most liberal way possible) and basically ran 100% on identity politics, any more electable.

Ah.
Point taken.
Abbott, imo, has been gifted a weak opponent tonight. I easily see him pounding the airwaves with his CoH, defining Lupe before she can even raise the money to compete. Her fundraising has been terrible and she just wasn't the right candidate for Romney/Clinton voters in the suburbs, who are vital for any winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate...

[Ye We Can]

Rip Texas Democrats. At least a White nomination coulda boosted O'Rourke

[smoltchanov]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

What's your point?

my point is even with the combo of their money it's not nearly enough to make a horrible nominee like Lupe Valdez, who has a horrendous track record as Dallas County Sheriff (and I mean that in the most liberal way possible) and basically ran 100% on identity politics, any more electable.

+1. Valdez won mostly because of very big margins in Hispanic areas, where nobody probably knew anything about her record, but her Hispanic name was very attractive.... Plus "home" area around Dallas. That was barely, but - still enough. US politics more and more becomes "identity politics", based on skin color, nationality,gender, sex preferences, and so on. Anything, but qualifications and chances to win...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And since Valdez is extremely pro-choice, while White is personally pro-life - one wonders in how many ways the GOP would exploit this. Running a rapidly pro-choice campaign in Texas is setting yourself up to lose, as Wendy Davis showed - she actually lost Hispanic men. No winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate is ever going to lose Hispanic men in GE...

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[Young Conservative]

And since Valdez is extremely pro-choice, while White is personally pro-life - one wonders in how many ways the GOP would exploit this. Running a rapidly pro-choice campaign in Texas is setting yourself up to lose, as Wendy Davis showed - she actually lost Hispanic men. No winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate is ever going to lose Hispanic men in GE...

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So, Valdez thinks you can't even disagree with her opinion. If you do, you're hateful. The radical left is taking over the Democratic Party...and it's why Trump won.

[smoltchanov]

And since Valdez is extremely pro-choice, while White is personally pro-life - one wonders in how many ways the GOP would exploit this. Running a rapidly pro-choice campaign in Texas is setting yourself up to lose, as Wendy Davis showed - she actually lost Hispanic men. No winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate is ever going to lose Hispanic men in GE...

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So, Valdez thinks you can't even disagree with her opinion. If you do, you're hateful. The radical left is taking over the Democratic Party...and it's why Trump won.

Yes, but radical right has taken over the Republican party ALREADY. It was you (not as person, but as part of the party) who has "shown the way"..... Democrats blindly followed in your path...

[Pandaguineapig]

Pretty underwhelming margin for Valdez with disappointing turnout for the runoff for dems, she probably ends up losing by a similar margin to Davis with her anemic fundraising and views far to the left of the state

[Politician]

If Abbott loses I'd be shocked. (Pleasantly though)

[NOVA Green]

Lupe Valdez never had any tv commercials (only digital ads/commercials and radio commercials). White aired tv ads in the primary and the runoff and still managed to come second both times.

tbf, he had a mountain to climb in order to win, both times.

True, and proof that money doesn't always buy elections. He had like $1.6 million going into election night while Lupe Valdez had like $400,000. He just couldn't make it happen.

He could have made it competitive in GE, but in any event Lupe was an obstacle he could not pass.
Here's to hoping White gives Valdez $$ to compete on the airwaves and media markets in the general election!

Abbott has 40 million lol

What's your point?

my point is even with the combo of their money it's not nearly enough to make a horrible nominee like Lupe Valdez, who has a horrendous track record as Dallas County Sheriff (and I mean that in the most liberal way possible) and basically ran 100% on identity politics, any more electable.

+1. Valdez won mostly because of very big margins in Hispanic areas, where nobody probably knew anything about her record, but her Hispanic name was very attractive.... Plus "home" area around Dallas. That was barely, but - still enough. US politics more and more becomes "identity politics", based on skin color, nationality,gender, sex preferences, and so on. Anything, but qualifications and chances to win...

I don't believe this is factually correct....

Although there are significant numbers of Latinos in pretty much most Large Metro Area Counties in Texas (Which is really where most of the Voters are in Texas as well as most of the Democratic Party Primary Voters), I strongly doubt that the composition of the Democratic Party Primary electorate was nearly as heavily Latino in places like Travis County (Austin), Bexar County (San Antonio) as the overall % of the population, and % of the VAP data might suggest....

It doesn't explain the results from Denton and Collins County, where Democratic Primary voters were likely overwhelmingly Anglo....

It certainly doesn't explain the 73-27 White victory in Harris County, which is 41% Latino....

NO--- the main reason Valdez won had to do with her performance among White Liberal Texans in her home base of Metro DFW, combined with winning a significant chunk of these voters in Central Texas (Metro SA and Austin), and keeping White's margins down in suburban H-Town (Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Montgomery Counties), not to mention running better in "Yellow Dawg" EastTex than many expected.

Sure, SouthTex and WestTex pushed her over the finish line for a Touchdown, but still....

One interesting item that I don't believe anyone has yet mentioned when it comes to the Texas GOV Primary, is how did African-American Democratic Primary voters vote?

This was likely a pretty decent chunk of the Democratic Primary Electorate, and is pretty well represented in almost all of the large Metro areas in Texas, with the exception of El Paso (3.3% of Pop), as well as many parts of Rural and Small Town EastTex....

My suspicion is that in the two largest Metro areas (DFW and Houston) that AA voters tended to mirror the overall vote of the local population, and might have narrowly voted White in Metro SA and Austin....

Jefferson County is a bit of a trip, since it is 34% representing Brothers and Sisters, and the Blackest County in all of Texas, not only because of geographical location, but also the role of the Union refineries and off-shore rig work....

Janis Joplin back in the days started singing folk music in the roughneck oil refining town of Beaumont, well before she became famous after getting on the radar after moving to Austin and doing the College Gig circuit at some of the main music joints in town....

Janis Joplin: Mercedes Benz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qev-i9-VKlY

Grab the song for your iPhone or smartphone for a buck, well worth it and still topical today.

Although the numbers show it is 17% Latino, they are concentrated in the youngest age brackets.... although Anglos are only 44% of the population they skew a bit older and tend to be Republican, but still with a significant Ancestral Dem base.....

Overall Jefferson County went 58-42 White with a Minority Anglo population (44%), where the Democratic electorate was most likely overwhelmingly Anglo-American and African-American!!!

Now, wish I had the screencap, but the EV numbers from Jefferson County in the 5/22 Run-Off showed Valdez in the lead, and it totally flipped to White once ED vote showed up....

So WTF is going on there???

Without precinct numbers available yet, we really don't have a clue about what was likely a significant component of the Democratic Party Primary electorate, but I strongly suspect this election was much less of a contest among "race"/ethnicity than whatever the Media Narrative may be....

In the words of Chuck D and legendary Hip-Hop Band Public Enemy. : "Don't Believe the Hype"

This wasn't a straight-up Latina vs Anglo election, but much more complex than all of that.

Back to the original topic Abbot likely wins regardless of whomever the Democratic Party might have selected.... Cruz on the other hand??

[krazen1211]

Valdez could easily get much worse than Davis and that 39%. San Francisco and San Francisco values, which I include here as a reference to Valdez's being a lesbian, are not generally reflected in voting patterns in Texas because it is a socially conservative state.

[Adam Griffin]

One interesting item that I don't believe anyone has yet mentioned when it comes to the Texas GOV Primary, is how did African-American Democratic Primary voters vote?

Just taking a quick glance at some maps, White won roughly three-quarters of the counties where the black population is greater than 15%. Obviously that doesn't give us a definitive verdict (especially considering any conservadems overlapping with black voters in rural eastern TX), but interesting nonetheless. A 55-45 margin or more in favor of White wouldn't surprise me.

Another interesting stat (that may or may not be related, or only slightly so): White actually did a tad better in the 10 largest counties (47.5%) than he did statewide (47.3%).

[Arkansas Yankee]

Democratic runoff turnout lowest in 100 years. Four counties had no votes in the Democratic Governor runoff.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/22/texas-primary-runoffs-results-who-won/

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/23/texas-counties-no-votes-democratic-primary-runoffs/?utm_source=Texas+Tribune+Master&utm_campaign=88c18565e5-trib-newsletters-the-brief&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d9a68d8efc-88c18565e5-102179893&mc_cid=88c18565e5&mc_eid=16ab2ff163

[Progressive Pessimist]

And since Valdez is extremely pro-choice, while White is personally pro-life - one wonders in how many ways the GOP would exploit this. Running a rapidly pro-choice campaign in Texas is setting yourself up to lose, as Wendy Davis showed - she actually lost Hispanic men. No winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate is ever going to lose Hispanic men in GE...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Valdez thinks you can't even disagree with her opinion. If you do, you're hateful. The radical left is taking over the Democratic Party...and it's why Drumpf won.

Tribalism unfortunately breeds more tribalism.

[Calthrina950]

And since Valdez is extremely pro-choice, while White is personally pro-life - one wonders in how many ways the GOP would exploit this. Running a rapidly pro-choice campaign in Texas is setting yourself up to lose, as Wendy Davis showed - she actually lost Hispanic men. No winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate is ever going to lose Hispanic men in GE...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Valdez thinks you can't even disagree with her opinion. If you do, you're hateful. The radical left is taking over the Democratic Party...and it's why Trump won.

I would have no problem at all with Abbott winning reelection, and would probably even vote for him if I lived in Texas. He seems, from what I know, to be a competent Governor, and maintaining the status quo is most important to me when one party has the advantage somewhere (unless if that party's candidate is uniquely bad or distasteful).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.texasobserver.org/activists-take-paid-sick-leave-fight-to-san-antonio/ San Antonio activists turned in enough signatures to get paid sick leave onto the ballot in the city of San Antonio in November, might boost dem turnout some, especially pertinent regarding TX-23 and the Texas Senate race.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I was polled today by Yougov for governor, Senate, lt gov, ag, us house, and tx house along with a bunch of other issues

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pretty underwhelming margin for Valdez with disappointing turnout for the runoff for dems, she probably ends up losing by a similar margin to Davis with her anemic fundraising and views far to the left of the state

How is Valdez' winning margin in the runoff relevant in November?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Gubernatorial debate on Friday on NBC 5, same channel the Senate debate was on.

[Canis]

Valdez better get at least 41% or Beto is screwed

[NOVA Green]

Valdez better get at least 41% or Beto is screwed

Do Reverse Coat-Tails really work like that, especially in off-year elections???

If anything, it just tells that Abbot is relatively known and popular, and Cruz is extremely well known, not well-liked and unpopular.

I can see some major breaks in the Anglo vote in Tejas in favor of BETO, but not in favor of Valdez.

Valdez better hope that BETO wins, and that Working-Class Latinos turnout in huge numbers in '18, since Abbot will likely perform much better among Middle & Upper Middle-Class Latinos in Texas than Cruz.

Anyone not familiar with Latino voting patterns in Texas should be aware that the major Latino vote gap in Texas is between Working-Class Latinos vs Middle-Class Latinos that tend to vote at much higher numbers, even outside of Presidential Election Years.

Is BETO or Cruz "Working for the Clampdown?"   
Is Valdez or Abbot "Working for the Clampdown?".

I would much rather take a candidate not working for "The Clampdown" than a candidate that might appear to be "Working for the Clampdown"....

Just two cents worth...  Valdez being a former Sheriff of a County where a Copper got fired for breaking into a Black Man's Apartment, and shooting him dead on the floor, ain't going to roll so well, in a state where many folks feel like "there is no justice for all"....

Just sayin'   .... DFW is done for Valdez.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems blew the Gov race and could of added more votes to BETO if they nominated Andrew White, but Beto can still win