ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[GoldenMainer]

That shows why I'll likely support Mills. With such a controversial issue in our state, it's smart to give nuanced explanations.

[MAINEiac4434]

That shows why I'll likely support Mills. With such a controversial issue in our state, it's smart to give nuanced explanations.

Mills is the only one who really stood out in that piece, agreed.

[Horsemask]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

[smoltchanov]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

I know that Mills is more or less typical liberal Democrat. Is Moody a "typical conservative Republican"?

[MAINEiac4434]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

I know that Mills is more or less typical liberal Democrat. Is Moody a "typical conservative Republican"?

Yes and no. He used to be an independent, but has the support of the LePage machine.

[smoltchanov]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

I know that Mills is more or less typical liberal Democrat. Is Moody a "typical conservative Republican"?

Yes and no. He used to be an independent, but has the support of the LePage machine.

At least, that, probably, means he is a conservative. Thanks!

[Horsemask]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

I know that Mills is more or less typical liberal Democrat. Is Moody a "typical conservative Republican"?

Yes and no. He used to be an independent, but has the support of the LePage machine.

At least, that, probably, means he is a conservative. Thanks!

He has typical fiscally conservative views -- like LePage, he has an extensive background in business.

[smoltchanov]

So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.

I know that Mills is more or less typical liberal Democrat. Is Moody a "typical conservative Republican"?

Yes and no. He used to be an independent, but has the support of the LePage machine.

At least, that, probably, means he is a conservative. Thanks!

He has typical fiscally conservative views -- like LePage, he has an extensive background in business.

Yes, but LePage is strongly socially conservative too. And that isnot what i would like to see in New England, even from Republican candidate... More thanks!

[TheSaint250]

I think Democrats flip this because of the weak GOP bench, but would a Republican hold here really be THAT surprising? Not sure why someone would believe that this is a lost cause for Republicans and yet consider CT, RI and NH winnable for the GOP?

Because LePage.

It remains to be seen how well Terry Hayes does, though. If she is getting a large amount of support, the Republicans have a good chance (while I assume she'll get bipartisan support, she'll probably win over more Democrats unless something else happens). If RCV were in, the Democrats would be good to go here, but that's not the case.

[MT Treasurer]

Because LePage.

It remains to be seen how well Terry Hayes does, though. If she is getting a large amount of support, the Republicans have a good chance (while I assume she'll get bipartisan support, she'll probably win over more Democrats unless something else happens). If RCV were in, the Democrats would be good to go here, but that's not the case.

Yeah, I think it will be D>40%, maybe D>50% if Mayhew is the Republican nominee.

[MAINEiac4434]

Because LePage.

It remains to be seen how well Terry Hayes does, though. If she is getting a large amount of support, the Republicans have a good chance (while I assume she'll get bipartisan support, she'll probably win over more Democrats unless something else happens). If RCV were in, the Democrats would be good to go here, but that's not the case.

Yeah, I think it will be D>40%, maybe D>50% if Mayhew is the Republican nominee.

Nah, we don't give gubernatorial candidates a majority of the vote unless they're incumbents we really like: the last two times it happened:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_1998

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_1982

There's also this election, the last election with no Independent on the ballot, so one candidate HAD to get 50%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_1970

[Free Bird]

I think Democrats flip this because of the weak GOP bench, but would a Republican hold here really be THAT surprising? Not sure why someone would believe that this is a lost cause for Republicans and yet consider CT, RI and NH winnable for the GOP?

How in any way is the bench on either side weak?

[RINO Tom]

I think Democrats flip this because of the weak GOP bench, but would a Republican hold here really be THAT surprising? Not sure why someone would believe that this is a lost cause for Republicans and yet consider CT, RI and NH winnable for the GOP?

The three states you mentioned have GOPs that seem to actually run candidates that fit their states well ... Maine gives us LePage.

[MAINEiac4434]

Green Betsy Marsano has dropped out. For the third consecutive election, the third-largest party in Maine will not have a gubernatorial candidate on the November ballot.

There will be no Libertarian, either, in their first election as an official party.

[un]

She'd probably still win a governor or senate race as an independent. Independents have always had a big spot in Maine politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

Betsy Sweet is the first Democrat to qualify for the ballot.

[Sestak]

Betsy Sweet is the first Democrat to qualify for the ballot.

Honestly curious as to how you rate her chances against more established candidates.

Does she have a better or worse shot at the nom than Biss in IL?

[MAINEiac4434]

Betsy Sweet is the first Democrat to qualify for the ballot.

Honestly curious as to how you rate her chances against more established candidates.

Does she have a better or worse shot at the nom than Biss in IL?

She has a chance. Not a great chance, but she has a chance.

Worse than Biss, I think, but the primary's not until June and the Maine Dems are implementing IRV for it. Anything can happen.

[MAINEiac4434]

Today was the filing deadline for partisan candidates.

On the Democratic side, these candidates have made it:

Mark Eves
Betsy Sweet
Janet Mills
Donna Dion
Mark Dion (no relation)
Adam Cote

Diane Russell submitted signatures just before the deadline, but it's unclear whether her signatures are valid and whether she will be allowed on the ballot.

Republicans:
Mike Thibodeau
Shawn Moody
Mary Mayhew
Garrett Mason

Ken Fredette is in the same situation as Diane Russell right now.

[MAINEiac4434]

Among the Democrats who failed to make the ballot is Steve DeAngelis, the schoolteacher endorsed by Timothy Simons (Jonah from Veep). I had the distinct pleasure of meeting DeAngelis at the Portland caucus, and I for one am quite disappointed we will no longer have his voice in this race.

Today also confirms that there will be no Green or Libertarian candidates on the ballot. As both Green members of the House of Representatives are retiring at the end of this term, the Greens have gone from being on the up to going down and out again.

There's still time for the many, many Independents to make the ballot, as they have until June 1st. Caron and Hayes are both well on their way to making it, if they haven't already.

[smoltchanov]

Today was the filing deadline for partisan candidates.

On the Democratic side, these candidates have made it:

Mark Eves
Betsy Sweet
Janet Mills
Donna Dion
Mark Dion (no relation)
Adam Cote

Diane Russell submitted signatures just before the deadline, but it's unclear whether her signatures are valid and whether she will be allowed on the ballot.

Republicans:
Mike Thibodeau
Shawn Moody
Mary Mayhew
Garrett Mason

Ken Fredette is in the same situation as Diane Russell right now.

So - standard situation? All Democratic candidates are very liberal, while all Republican - very conservative? I expected better from New England state...

[MAINEiac4434]

Still very early obviously, but would you say that Mayhew is favored to win the R primary? And who’s the most electable Republican in your opinion? Shawn Moody?

Moody for both. He swept up the straw poll during the caucuses a few weeks ago.

He also has an air of reasonableness and moderate-ness the other candidates lack. Which is why I think it’s very important to nominate a progressive who will minimize defections to Hayes.

Today was the filing deadline for partisan candidates.

On the Democratic side, these candidates have made it:

Mark Eves
Betsy Sweet
Janet Mills
Donna Dion
Mark Dion (no relation)
Adam Cote

Diane Russell submitted signatures just before the deadline, but it's unclear whether her signatures are valid and whether she will be allowed on the ballot.

Republicans:
Mike Thibodeau
Shawn Moody
Mary Mayhew
Garrett Mason

Ken Fredette is in the same situation as Diane Russell right now.

So - standard situation? All Democratic candidates are very liberal, while all Republican - very conservative? I expected better from New England state...

Adam Cote is quite moderate, and Shawn Moody purports to be. Both have a decent chance to win their respective nominations.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! And - good.

[Horsemask]

Just as an update to Maineiac's post, I've read that both Fredette and Russell have been cleared and are on their respective ballots.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just as an update to Maineiac's post, I've read that both Fredette and Russell have been cleared and are on their respective ballots.

Good for Sweet, imho. I feel like many Russell voters will second-preference Sweet, as they're both going after the progressive, Sanders-aligned base of the party. But if Russell hadn't made it, her supporters might not have turned out.