ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[Horsemask]

Just as an update to Maineiac's post, I've read that both Fredette and Russell have been cleared and are on their respective ballots.

Good for Sweet, imho. I feel like many Russell voters will second-preference Sweet, as they're both going after the progressive, Sanders-aligned base of the party. But if Russell hadn't made it, her supporters might not have turned out.

I have to keep reminding myself that the primaries are using ranked choice.

[MAINEiac4434]

Thibodeau’s out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bangordailynews.com/2018/03/26/politics/maine-senate-president-mike-thibodeau-quits-gop-race-to-succeed-lepage/

Mason, Mayhew, Moody, Fredette left in the GOP race.

[Horsemask]

Thibodeau’s out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bangordailynews.com/2018/03/26/politics/maine-senate-president-mike-thibodeau-quits-gop-race-to-succeed-lepage/

Mason, Mayhew, Moody, Fredette left in the GOP race.

Disappointing. My guess is that he endorses Moody.

[MAINEiac4434]

Thibodeau’s out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bangordailynews.com/2018/03/26/politics/maine-senate-president-mike-thibodeau-quits-gop-race-to-succeed-lepage/

Mason, Mayhew, Moody, Fredette left in the GOP race.

Disappointing. My guess is that he endorses Moody.

Agreed.

[henster]

Cote seems like the strongest candidate from reading his profile, not really impressed with Mills.

[smoltchanov]

Thibodeau’s out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bangordailynews.com/2018/03/26/politics/maine-senate-president-mike-thibodeau-quits-gop-race-to-succeed-lepage/

Mason, Mayhew, Moody, Fredette left in the GOP race.

Weak choice, but of these Moody seems to be (relatively) sanest...

[MAINEiac4434]

Cote seems like the strongest candidate from reading his profile, not really impressed with Mills.

Cote is too moderate for the Bernie-aligned base of the party and will bleed votes to Hayes imho.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hayes has filed her signatures for the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Janet Mills is gonna win.

[MAINEiac4434]

Janet Mills is gonna win.

I wouldn’t put money on that.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hayes has qualified for public financing.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hayes has qualified for public financing.

As has Sweet.

[_]

How big of a deal is it that Hayes got Public Financing?  Also, how much support does it seem like she has anyway?

[MAINEiac4434]

How big of a deal is it that Hayes got Public Financing?  Also, how much support does it seem like she has anyway?

Huge deal, because partisan candidates get $200,000 for the primaries and $600,000 if they make it to the general. Independents, because they don’t have a primary to go through, get the $800,000 immediately. I expect her to hit the air now.

Her chances depend entirely on who the Democrats nominate. If the Democrats nominate Sweet, there won’t be a big reason for left-wing Democrats to defect. If the Democrats nominated Mills, well...

[TheSaint250]

But doesn’t Hayes float around the center?

If so, would left-wingers just vote for her as just a protest like a Bernie —> Gary thing?

[_]

Mills is the centrist right?  So why would they go to Hayes? 

[Horsemask]

Mills is the centrist right?  So why would they go to Hayes? 

I wouldn't call Mills a centrist. Cote is a centrist.

[MAINEiac4434]

But doesn’t Hayes float around the center?

If so, would left-wingers just vote for her as just a protest like a Bernie —> Gary thing?

Mills is the centrist right?  So why would they go to Hayes? 

Because there'd be no one else, and Mills losing would hopefully end Democrats' obsession with running centrists for Governor. It's exactly why liberals defected to Cutler in 2010.

Hayes is more committed to getting money out of politics, which is why she's running clean. Hayes is also more progressive on social issues than Mills (for example, Hayes is more in favor of gun control than Mills and Hayes is better on the controversial water rights issue than Mills).

In Maine, Democrats vote for independents when they're unhappy with their nominee. Many Democrats would be very unhappy with Mills as their nominee.

[Pandaguineapig]

Since the transferable vote has been put on hold until at least 2022, is it correct to assume a hayes candidacy helps the republicans?

[MAINEiac4434]

Since the transferable vote has been put on hold until at least 2022, is it correct to assume a hayes candidacy helps the republicans?

Yes, absolutely. It's the only way Republicans can win.

[MAINEiac4434]

DSA HAS ENDORSED BETSY SWEET*

*over its own dues-paying member Diane Russell

http://southernmainedsa.org/2018/04/12/press-release-southern-maine-dsa-endorses-betsy-sweet-in-june-primary-for-maine-state-governor/

[MAINEiac4434]

How does the caucus system work and how might it affect Sweet's primary chances?

No caucus system in Maine - a primary with IRV. This is all fantastic for Betsy -- she can probably get a lot of second prefs from Russell and Eves.

[MAINEiac4434]

I am, clearly, ecstatic. The DSA is huge here in Maine. This is a major, major boon to her campaign. Access to the DSA's activists will be huge for the June primary.

[smoltchanov]

DSA HAS ENDORSED BETSY SWEET*

*over its own dues-paying member Diane Russell

http://southernmainedsa.org/2018/04/12/press-release-southern-maine-dsa-endorses-betsy-sweet-in-june-primary-for-maine-state-governor/

8 years of LePage rule are not enough for Maine's Democrats?

[OneJ]

How does the caucus system work and how might it affect Sweet's primary chances?

No caucus system in Maine - a primary with IRV. This is all fantastic for Betsy -- she can probably get a lot of second prefs from Russell and Eves.

I’m very glad that Maine has the opportunity to experiment with the rank voting system. Hopefully it turns out to be successful.