ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[MAINEiac4434]

How does the caucus system work and how might it affect Sweet's primary chances?

No caucus system in Maine - a primary with IRV. This is all fantastic for Betsy -- she can probably get a lot of second prefs from Russell and Eves.

I’m very glad that Maine has the opportunity to experiment with the rank voting system. Hopefully it turns out to be successful.

I’m scared of it messing up the 2nd district primary.

I don't think IRV will be used for congressional races because it's not a state race - it's a federal one.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bangor Daily News has a great rundown on an oft-unexplored side of political giving: the donations the gubernatorial candidates give to other politicians and pacs:

http://bangordailynews.com/series/money-trail-2018/

[Kevinstat]

How does the caucus system work and how might it affect Sweet's primary chances?

No caucus system in Maine - a primary with IRV. This is all fantastic for Betsy -- she can probably get a lot of second prefs from Russell and Eves.

I’m very glad that Maine has the opportunity to experiment with the rank voting system. Hopefully it turns out to be successful.

I’m scared of it messing up the 2nd district primary.

I don't think IRV will be used for congressional races because it's not a state race - it's a federal one.

IRV is definitely going to be used for the 2nd district Democratic primary (and would be for the other federal primaries if they had more than two candidates (the others have only 1, or none for the Greens and Libertarians)).  In fact, if Question 1 (the people's veto) passes in June, the general elections for U.S. Senate and U.S. House in Maine will most likely use IRV (the Maine Supreme Judicial Court's recent ruling was limited to the coming primary election, but there's no reason they would rule differently on basically the same questions (a statutory conflict with a holdover pre-RCV statute and whether the SOS has authority to provide for essential tasks and/or spend money to facilitate RCV) for general elections for federal offices), and those offices (federal offices) would be the only ones to use IRV in November.

The initial initiative called for it to be used in primary and general elections for state offices (Governor, State Senate and State House) and federal offices (U.S. Senate and U.S. House) (interestingly not for county offices, which are on the same ballot in Maine - municipal elections are on municipal ballots and are run by the towns; you don't go to CEC (Corporations, Elections and Commissions) offices to file, etc.)).  IRV/RCV was clearly in violation of the Maine Constitution for general elections for Governor and the Legislature, and after the 2017 Supreme Court advisory opinion RCV supporters didn't even try to resurrect that part, but the other "7 of 10" (you may recall hearing or reading that) cases (primaries for all five types of offices and general elections for the two federal ones) would still be kept with RCV if the people's veto passes.

[Kevinstat]

DSA HAS ENDORSED BETSY SWEET*

*over its own dues-paying member Diane Russell

http://southernmainedsa.org/2018/04/12/press-release-southern-maine-dsa-endorses-betsy-sweet-in-june-primary-for-maine-state-governor/

8 years of LePage rule are not enough for Maine's Democrats?

That's how I feel.  Betsy Sweet to me is like Libby Mitchell on steroids.  I'm afraid she'll come across to swing voters in Maine like she's lecturing them on humanity, and I'll agree some people need to be lectured on humanity but it's not the best way to get votes.

She does have integrity, I'll give her that (I feel she's better in that regard than many of the other candidates), but I'm not sure that will matter to a lot of voters who will typecast her before really giving her a chance (of course perhaps that's what I'm doing).

[MAINEiac4434]

DSA HAS ENDORSED BETSY SWEET*

*over its own dues-paying member Diane Russell

http://southernmainedsa.org/2018/04/12/press-release-southern-maine-dsa-endorses-betsy-sweet-in-june-primary-for-maine-state-governor/

8 years of LePage rule are not enough for Maine's Democrats?

That's how I feel.  Betsy Sweet to me is like Libby Mitchell on steroids.  I'm afraid she'll come across to swing voters in Maine like she's lecturing them on humanity, and I'll agree some people need to be lectured on humanity but it's not the best way to get votes.

She does have integrity, I'll give her that (I feel she's better in that regard than many of the other candidates), but I'm not sure that will matter to a lot of voters who will typecast her before really giving her a chance (of course perhaps that's what I'm doing).

Glad you recognize it

Libby Mitchell also wasn't the most personable person. I felt she was very awkward and could come off as unfriendly. Not to mention, that was in a GOP wave year.

[Kevinstat]

Steve DeAngelis who you (maineiac4434🌲) mentioned earlier was a teacher of mine (Physics in 11th grade; Maranacook did Physics for Juniors and Chemistry for Seniors which I guess is the opposite of the usual pattern).  I collected 7 signatures for him (other people had him covered at the Augusta caucus, but I got a couple at a civics group event before the caucus and got a few going door-to-door.

Timothy Simons was three years above me at Maranacook (which was one 7-12 school back then so I knew of him and watched him play basketball for three years).  The only play I remember him in was after he graduated (him and a then-recent teacher in Gangster Apparel which was at the school and probably had student involvement (like with props).  I think I only went to one play during my first three years at Maranacook.  He was probably in a bunch of them.

[MAINEiac4434]

Steve DeAngelis who you (maineiac4434) mentioned earlier was a teacher of mine (Physics in 11th grade; Maranacook did Physics for Juniors and Chemistry for Seniors which I guess is the opposite of the usual pattern).  I collected 7 signatures for him (other people had him covered at the Augusta caucus, but I got a couple at a civics group event before the caucus and got a few going door-to-door.

Timothy Simons was three years above me at Maranacook (which was one 7-12 school back then so I knew of him and watched him play basketball for three years).  The only play I remember him in was after he graduated (him and a then-recent teacher in Gangster Apparel which was at the school and probably had student involvement (like with props).  I think I only went to one play during my first three years at Maranacook.  He was probably in a bunch of them.

He was super nice, wish he made the ballot.

He told me he used to let Tim Simons do stand-up at the end of class.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ann LePage has endorsed Shawn Moody.

[MAINEiac4434]

Moody, Mills lead GOP and Dem primaries respectively: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

[MAINEiac4434]

Moody, Mills lead GOP and Dem primaries respectively: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Would it really be that far-fetched to rate Moody vs. Mills a Tossup?

Kind of. Moody is by far the strongest Republican candidate as a "job creator" and "moderate", and Mills definitely has her weaknesses (a combination of being LePage's favorite punching bag for being SUPER LIBERAL and being 'meh, establishment wishy-washy moderate not a real progressive' to the activist, Sanders-aligned base of the Democrats). In a way it'd sort of be like Trump vs Hillary, except Moody isn't nearly as stupid or self-destructive as Trump and Hillary's much more popular than Moody.

But with RCV I'm like 90% sure the Democrat will win from getting second-prefs from Hayes and Caron voters.

[Kevinstat]

Moody, Mills lead GOP and Dem primaries respectively: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Would it really be that far-fetched to rate Moody vs. Mills a Tossup?

Kind of. Moody is by far the strongest Republican candidate as a "job creator" and "moderate", and Mills definitely has her weaknesses (a combination of being LePage's favorite punching bag for being SUPER LIBERAL and being 'meh, establishment wishy-washy moderate not a real progressive' to the activist, Sanders-aligned base of the Democrats). In a way it'd sort of be like Trump vs Hillary, except Moody isn't nearly as stupid or self-destructive as Trump and Hillary's much more popular than Moody.

But with RCV I'm like 90% sure the Democrat will win from getting second-prefs from Hayes and Caron voters.

RCV won't be used for Governor or the Legislature in November, regardless of what happens with the Peoples Veto in June (unless the Legislature comes in for special session and decides to amend the Maine Constitution to allow for RCV for those offices, which isn't going to happen).

[MAINEiac4434]

Moody, Mills lead GOP and Dem primaries respectively: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Would it really be that far-fetched to rate Moody vs. Mills a Tossup?

Kind of. Moody is by far the strongest Republican candidate as a "job creator" and "moderate", and Mills definitely has her weaknesses (a combination of being LePage's favorite punching bag for being SUPER LIBERAL and being 'meh, establishment wishy-washy moderate not a real progressive' to the activist, Sanders-aligned base of the Democrats). In a way it'd sort of be like Trump vs Hillary, except Moody isn't nearly as stupid or self-destructive as Trump and Hillary's much more popular than Moody.

But with RCV I'm like 90% sure the Democrat will win from getting second-prefs from Hayes and Caron voters.

RCV won't be used for Governor or the Legislature in November, regardless of what happens with the Peoples Veto in June (unless the Legislature comes in for special session and decides to amend the Maine Constitution to allow for RCV for those offices, which isn't going to happen).

Fuck, yes, you're right. Goddammit it's so hard to keep track of this.

[MAINEiac4434]

Newt Gingrich endorses Mary Mayhew: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNagZ_K5ybQ

[Horsemask]

Moody, Mills lead GOP and Dem primaries respectively: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Would it really be that far-fetched to rate Moody vs. Mills a Tossup?

Wouldn't be far-fetched at all.

[MAINEiac4434]

GOP debate last night. All of them hate Medicaid expansion for stupid reasons, all of them want to continue LePage’s policies that will continue to kill the state.

All of them are dangerous ideologues whom we can’t allow into positions of power.

[MAINEiac4434]

So, I haven't been posting much recently because I was at the Maine Democratic Convention.

On the first night, Jared Golden electrified the crowd and announced that he had been endorsed by National Nurses United.

But I wasn't there with Team Golden. I was with Team Sweet.

And she brought the house down tonight.

She went first out of the seven candidates, and she started with a bang. She clearly laid out her platform, took a shot at Janet Mills, and got the crowd on their feet. I had people telling me after the speech that she had become the first preference, and I had many people ask me for signs after she was done speaking.

The entire thing made me cry. I broke down in front of the other staffers, because I'm so proud of what this campaign has accomplished and I'm so proud to be a part of it.

We're going to win. Maybe I'm crazy and overtired and emotional, but I know we can do it. No one expected us to get even this far. We started with nothing, and we had to fight like hell against the other candidates and their special interest money (Adam Cote's average contribution is $200! We can't receive anything higher than $100!) to come even this close.

Check out what we did with our lawn signs in front of the convention hall. Front-page of the state's largest newspaper, and in the background of every single live report from the site:

[_]

So, I haven't been posting much recently because I was at the Maine Democratic Convention.

On the first night, Jared Golden electrified the crowd and announced that he had been endorsed by National Nurses United.

But I wasn't there with Team Golden. I was with Team Sweet.

And she brought the house down tonight.

She went first out of the seven candidates, and she started with a bang. She clearly laid out her platform, took a shot at Janet Mills, and got the crowd on their feet. I had people telling me after the speech that she had become the first preference, and I had many people ask me for signs after she was done speaking.

The entire thing made me cry. I broke down in front of the other staffers, because I'm so fucking proud of what this campaign has accomplished and I'm so fucking proud to be a part of it.

We're going to fucking win. Maybe I'm crazy and overtired and emotional, but I know we can do it. No one expected us to get even this far. We started with nothing, and we had to fight like hell against the other candidates and their special interest money (Adam Cote's average contribution is $200! We can't receive anything higher than $100!) to come even this close.

Check out what we did with our lawn signs in front of the convention hall. Front-page of the state's largest newspaper, and in the background of every single live report from the site:

Jesus christ that's a sh**tload of signs. 

I listened to that entire speech, and I think she is hitting all the right notes, and I liked the ending a lot.  She's completely genuine, 100%, and I think the crowd was able to realize that, and my favorite part of the speech is that she didn't spit on Trump voters, she recognized that they just want to be heard and want better lives. 

Now she's got an uphill battle, but something tells me she's gonna get past the third round, counter to that poll that was posted here earlier.  She's dedicated to fighting for the betterment of people's lives, that's clear, and if she's got staffers and volunteers like you Maineiac, she's gonna win.

Finally, just check my sig for my opinion on this race now. 

[MAINEiac4434]

So, I haven't been posting much recently because I was at the Maine Democratic Convention.

On the first night, Jared Golden electrified the crowd and announced that he had been endorsed by National Nurses United.

But I wasn't there with Team Golden. I was with Team Sweet.

And she brought the house down tonight.

She went first out of the seven candidates, and she started with a bang. She clearly laid out her platform, took a shot at Janet Mills, and got the crowd on their feet. I had people telling me after the speech that she had become the first preference, and I had many people ask me for signs after she was done speaking.

The entire thing made me cry. I broke down in front of the other staffers, because I'm so fucking proud of what this campaign has accomplished and I'm so fucking proud to be a part of it.

We're going to fucking win. Maybe I'm crazy and overtired and emotional, but I know we can do it. No one expected us to get even this far. We started with nothing, and we had to fight like hell against the other candidates and their special interest money (Adam Cote's average contribution is $200! We can't receive anything higher than $100!) to come even this close.

Check out what we did with our lawn signs in front of the convention hall. Front-page of the state's largest newspaper, and in the background of every single live report from the site:

Jesus christ that's a sh**tload of signs. 

I listened to that entire speech, and I think she is hitting all the right notes, and I liked the ending a lot.  She's completely genuine, 100%, and I think the crowd was able to realize that, and my favorite part of the speech is that she didn't spit on Trump voters, she recognized that they just want to be heard and want better lives. 

Now she's got an uphill battle, but something tells me she's gonna get past the third round, counter to that poll that was posted here earlier.  She's dedicated to fighting for the betterment of people's lives, that's clear, and if she's got staffers and volunteers like you Maineiac, she's gonna win.

Finally, just check my sig for my opinion on this race now. 

I could kiss you with that sig.

Unfortunately, we used most of our signs there and we didn't have a lot on the rest of the convention grounds. Also, we ran out of signs making the heart, and Cote people kept on trying to put their signs in the heart, the assholes,* until we got some more from our sign dude. We had to guard it, because we didn't trust the other campaigns, and eventually just had one girl lay in it while the rest of us grabbed food.

And thank you, Not_Madigan. I am so, so proud to be on this campaign and fighting for issues that affect the forgotten people of this state. Betsy recognizes why people voted for Trump -- dissatisfaction with the status quo. She (and Senator Troy Jackson, whom she referenced in her speech) both know that Trump is a symptom, not the disease, and that the real problem has been trade deals destroying Maine's mills, a government that refuses to do anything about opioids, and a lack of options for Maine's youth. People in Aroostook and Washington and Waldo didn't vote for Trump because they're "deplorable," they voted for him because their situation is deplorable, and my party's forgotten that it's supposed to fight to protect them.

I know she'll get past the third round, that poll vastly overestimated Mark Dion's support. He's barely running a campaign. I got a lot of people telling me she was their second preference, which is great in an RCV race. I think it over-sampled Cumberland County voters (Dion was Sheriff of Cumberland County) and under-sampled voters from northern Maine (our base is definitely more among rural populists than the more coastal, social-liberal voters in the southern part of the state).

*while we were waiting for the signs to arrive, one of the Cote sign guys said 'well, we'll wait to put them in there, but later we can do a photo-op with our signs? Like Betsy loves Adam' and me and another staffer kind of nodded but didn't say anything. Later in the day, that same guy comes up to our booth and was like "what about the photo-op!?" Like dude, sorry we didn't want your nasty-ass corporate candidate all up in our heart of people power.

[Kevinstat]

I was there today.  Missed yesterday's portion.  The county caucus system was poorly managed, at least for those not in York and Cumberland Counties (they went to rooms at the nearby school).  In Kennebec County a former county chair who was ousted in January 2017 (and I played a role in that ouster) said she was going to file a grievance as some business was conducted when a lot of people couldn't hear what was happening.  I passed that on to the new Chair and he didn't seem very concerned.  It wasn't his fault that things were set up as they were, but the former Chair might done something like, "We're not going to do this caucus and elect the state committee members until you get us a better space."  We had exactly five candidates for five seats, but three candidates for alternate (which comes with full speaking rights) were nominated from the floor (although one of them withdrew when he learned that there was only one alternate position; he thought there were five, one for each delegate).  For local candidate speeches, so people could hear what was going on, we broke up by State Sentate district (Kennebec County has two whole and five partial Senate districts, but I think people from Litchfield and Wayne in the Lisbon-Turner district probably went with those in the Gardiner-Winthrop district and if there was anyone from Rome in the main Somerset district they might have gone in with Belgrade, Mount Vernon etc. which is in the Franklin County district).  Of course the House districts don't nest within Senate districts so not everyone got to hear from their House candidate.

In 2010 the convention was in Lewiston (and based out of the Collisée, like this year) but there were separate rooms for each county caucus.  I imagine the county caucus situation this year will come up next year when planning for the 2020 state convention begins.

[MAINEiac4434]

^^^ I also heard an older woman fell and broke her ankle trying to climb the bleachers to her county caucus, and many disabled delegates found the process to be poorly accessible. The caucuses were poorly managed by the party.

[Kevinstat]

^^^ I also heard an older woman fell and broke her ankle trying to climb the bleachers to her county caucus, and many disabled delegates found the process to be poorly accessible. The caucuses were poorly managed by the party.

Oh, no!  That's terrible.  It kind of rings a bell actually, but I guess I was so absorbed in everything that was going on that it didn't fully register when someone mentioned it.

[_]

So we've got the personal take that Sweet did well, what's the media saying about the convention?

[MAINEiac4434]

So we've got the personal take that Sweet did well, what's the media saying about the convention?

PPH columnist Cynthia Dill, who might be the single mos establishment Democrat in the state, said Cote got the best reception. I was outside pulling up signs, so I didn’t hear it.

PPH is also noting how similar each candiddate’s message is: https://www.pressherald.com/2018/05/20/1381530/

BDN notes that Sweet was one of only three candidates to bring up tribal sovereignty, an issue hugely important to progressives (and one of the reasons Henry John Bear left the Democratic Party) and one that Mills is personally terrible on:* https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/19/politics/democrats-who-want-lepages-job-take-aim-at-top-spot-in-primary-race/

*Protesters outside the convention held signs saying “Janet Mills’ record towards people of color concerns me” and handed out fliers that said “don’t vote for Janet Mills.” During her speech, several members of the DSA held handmade signs that said “Say No to Racism.”

[_]

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Ok that's rather interesting, though the DSA are obviously biased in favor of Sweet

I had a question on the DSA actually, cause on the wiki it says that there's a DSA of Southern Maine who backed Sweet, is there a Northern Maine chapter?

[MAINEiac4434]

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Ok that's rather interesting, though the DSA are obviously biased in favor of Sweet

I had a question on the DSA actually, cause on the wiki it says that there's a DSA of Southern Maine who backed Sweet, is there a Northern Maine chapter?

Unfortunately, no.