ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[MAINEiac4434]

Betsy Sweet has won the Maine Young Democrats strawpoll:

[MAINEiac4434]

Not sure if this was clarified prior, but are Mark and Donna Dion of any relation?

No. Mark Dion must be pissed that there's another Mark and another Dion in the race.

[_]

How big of an impact will her winning the YD Strawpoll have?

Also, Andrew, is your sig meant to be a parody of Ben Garrison?

[MAINEiac4434]

Not sure if this was clarified prior, but are Mark and Donna Dion of any relation?

No. Mark Dion must be pissed that there's another Mark and another Dion in the race.

So it safe to assume that Mark Dion is the product of a gene-splicing scheme that extracted biological material from both Eves and this Donna person in order to create the Perfect Candidate? Pretty odd choices of sources, then, especially since D. Dion is an unremarkable electoral failure.

Yes.

Mark Dion is an unapologetic progressive (like Mark Eves) who's also a cop, so he also has trouble communicating to people (like Donna Dion, except for the cop part). So he's definitely the product of gene splicing between the two.

On the topic of Donna: she didn't even show up to the convention, but sent along the most bizarre video laying out her platform. It was awkward and cringey.

How big of an impact will her winning the YD Strawpoll have?

Probably not much, but she can send out an email blast about it and get a few more $5 donations. It'll probably give her some buzz on social media.

[henster]

Adam Cote is up with his second ad and it gently attacks Janet Mills. He and Mills seem to be the only candidates on air and have raised a decent amount of $$, so I will consider them the frontrunners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJMzP_mX4aw

[MAINEiac4434]

Adam Cote is up with his second ad and it gently attacks Janet Mills. He and Mills seem to be the only candidates on air and have raised a decent amount of $$, so I will consider them the frontrunners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJMzP_mX4aw

Mills is on air, too. Everyone is taking shots at her, which makes me think she's leading in internal polling.

[MAINEiac4434]

Adam Cote releases an attack ad on Janet Mills quoting environmental groups, who immediately wish to be removed from the ad: http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2018/05/22/maine-independents-strive-for-state-house-relevance/

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You can watch the original version of the ad here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJMzP_mX4aw

[MAINEiac4434]

Diane Russell under another ethics investigation.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdme/status/999329418869923841?s=21

And it’s not good.

[_]

Diane Russell under another ethics investigation.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdme/status/999329418869923841?s=21

And it’s not good.

Another one?  Something tells me this is why the DSA endorsed Sweet over her, they had to have known Russell had baggage.

[MAINEiac4434]

Diane Russell under another ethics investigation.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdme/status/999329418869923841?s=21

And it’s not good.

Another one?  Something tells me this is why the DSA endorsed Sweet over her, they had to have known Russell had baggage.

You’re exacrly right. She had one while she was in the State House of Representatives, too.

[MAINEiac4434]

http://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/23/opinion/editorials/adam-cote-offers-democrats-a-new-path-in-june-primary/

https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/22/opinion/editorials/in-a-republican-primary-that-leaves-out-moderates-shawn-moody-is-top-choice/

BDN endorses Adam Cote and Shawn Moody in their respective primaries.

[GoldenMainer]

I don't even know who I'm rooting for. It's nice to see two candidates from down my way (Cote and Eves) but I don't like either of them. I was leaning toward Mills since she's from the second district and that could help moderates swing toward Golden for ME02 if he pulls out the Dem nomination. I tend to like more progressive candidates but Russell is running a joke campaign. I need to give Sweet another look but my worry with her is that she'll seem super unelectable next to "small businessman everyday guy" Shawn Moody if he's the Republican nominee. Usually I'm firmly in someone's camp by now.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don't even know who I'm rooting for. It's nice to see two candidates from down my way (Cote and Eves) but I don't like either of them. I was leaning toward Mills since she's from the second district and that could help moderates swing toward Golden for ME02 if he pulls out the Dem nomination. I tend to like more progressive candidates but Russell is running a joke campaign. I need to give Sweet another look but my worry with her is that she'll seem super unelectable next to "small businessman everyday guy" Shawn Moody if he's the Republican nominee. Usually I'm firmly in someone's camp by now.

Betsy is like Diane, except she’s electable. She’s also created two businesses and was a single mom to boot. Can’t get more everyday than that.

[Politician]

Favorite Candidates: Betsy Sweet, and Janet Mills is the weakest.

[henster]

The news identifies Sweet as a lobbyist which I'm sure is the least attractive profession in politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

The news identifies Sweet as a lobbyist which I'm sure is the least attractive profession in politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_Women%27s_Lobby

[MAINEiac4434]

Former Senate President and once-upon-a-time potential gubernatorial candidate Justin Alfond has endorsed Adam Cote today. Maine political prognosticators seem to think internal polling has it down to a race between Cote and Mills, and Alfond knows how unpopular Mills is so he's trying to use his clout to swing the election to Cote.

Also: a federal judge has ruled that the GOP has to use ranked choice voting in the primary, which is two weeks away. Mary Mayhew has responded by imploring her supporters not to rank anyone except her.

[GoldenMainer]

What I'm most surprised by is how Eves hasn't taken off at all. He's likely battling for third behind Mills & Cote.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What I'm most surprised by is how Eves hasn't taken off at all. He's likely battling for third behind Mills & Cote.

[MAINEiac4434]

What I'm most surprised by is how Eves hasn't taken off at all. He's likely battling for third behind Mills & Cote.

Yup. Didn’t even raise enough money to join Mills, Cote and Sweet (and Mason and Fredette) on the air. His campaign is bleeding support to us and Cote. It’s quite sad, actually.

I have to wonder if taking over a charter school (and the kerfuffle surrounding it) had anything to do with his landing with a thud.

[MAINEiac4434]

Eves and Alfond served in leadership at the same time, too. And Eves is holding his victory party at a bar owned by Alfond. It’s all quite sad.

[Horsemask]

Registered Dem back last Friday so I can vote in the primary.

Cote is my top choice.

[MAINEiac4434]

Registered Dem back last Friday so I can vote in the primary.

Cote is my top choice.

Please consider placing Betsy as your second

[Kevinstat]

My preferences are very fluid right now.  The one thing I'm pretty solid on is that Diane Russell, who has a history of questionable campaign finance practices and would bomb if she were the nominee, will be my 7th choice (but I'll still rank her to put her above write-in candidate Marty Vachon who was "running" as a Republican in 2009 and was a general election write-in in 2010 and 2014) and Donna Dion will be my 6th.  Not that there's any chance my vote will end up transferring to any of the aforementioned three.  Beyond that, it's kind of an odd situation in my mind right now.  I guess I'm also pretty solid on Mark Dion as my #1, more by process of elimination than anything else.  He's been in the pole position in my mind ever since Steve DeAngelis failed to get on the ballot, at first because my parents were supporting him but he's stayed in that position as everyone else has something about them or how I think they would come across that I'm not thrilled with.  I talked about my concerns with Betsy Sweet earlier.  Janet Mills has a mean side (one of my mom's friends was on a grand jury that put out a No bill on a case in Androscoggin County when she was the Andro-Franklin-Oxford DA and she read the jurors the riot act) and will, as maineiac4434🌲🌹 pointed out, likely bleed progressive votes to Hayes as a protest even though Hayes is no progressive.  Cote seems to be the junkyard dog of the race right now, but I do see him as someone who can win and a kind of mentor of mine in Augusta is supporting him.  For awhile it was between him and Janet Mills for #2.  But my mom's made it clear that Mills is her last choice and her influence has had me considering ranking her as low (as high a number) as fifth.  With that and with Cote's negative campaigning, I'm thinking I could possibly put Betsy Sweet in as #2, but I couldn't imagine putting her as #1, or voting for her in an FPTP primary, even if Mark Dion wasn't running - it's just not who I am (I think voting can be a lot of how people want to see themselves, which is part of the reason popular incumbents like my State Senator Roger Katz win such lopsided majorities; of course they don't always draw particularly strong opponents but I think it often wouldn't matter what issues the opponent campaigned on or what votes (s)he criticized the incumbent for).  Mark Eves was for a while in a tie with Russell for last as I was kind of buying part of the LePage/Larry Lockman argument on the whole Goodwill Hinkley controversy, that Eves had some unfair advantages through his top staffer who was on the GWH board even though the staffer recused himself from the vote.  Plus I thought dragging out the personal suit against the Governor after losing in court in the first stage of that suit was a waste of time.  But I've kind of gotten over that and I'm not sure how much the typical swing voter will care.  I see him as fairly electable now, although not as much as Mark Dion or Adam Cote.  I could potentially rank him as high (as low a number) as third.  I can't see myself ranking Eves ahead of Cote, but beyond that any possible ordering of Cote, Eves, Mills and Sweet (alphabetical order there) in my 2-5 rankings is possible.

While I'm not a supporter of ranked choice voting (for reasons that would take another sizable post to explain and I don't have the mental energy right now), I'm now happy that it's being used in this primary.  I was hoping the Republicans would prevail in their suit as they clearly didn't want in, including the fairly rank-and-file (apparently the convention vote on their added plurality rule was unanimous), but upon reading the ruling it appears sound.  I'd support the policy making it optional for parties in their primaries if the People's Veto passed, but I imagine any bill to do that would be "People's Vetoed" as well.

[Kevinstat]

I have to wonder if taking over a charter school (and the kerfuffle surrounding it) had anything to do with his landing with a thud.

As you can see from my last post, it definitely had am impact on my receptiveness toward him, and now that that impact is lessening it's probably too late for him to "get into" or "get back into" the race (I think he was seen as one of the frontrunners for much of last year).