TX-SEN: True to Form

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Who remembers back in 2010 when Republicans were pretending that they could win CA-GOV and CA-SEN?

How did that work out for them?

McCain did worse than Goldwater for CA, meanwhile Hillary gave the best record since 1996 for TX. There's a bit of a difference.

I would agree that TX-SEN 2018 will be closer than CA-GOV and CA-SEN 2010, but that doesn't mean O'Rourke is going to win it.

Even light blue states like CO held firm against the 2010 Red Wave.

Texas is at least as red as CO was blue.

CO 2014?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ted Cruz is going to win re-election. We are not going to lose this seat. Senator Cruz is one of the great heroes of our time and he is not going to lose to someone like Beto O'Rourke. He is too energized and too committed to lose. When it is all said and done, Senator Cruz will win this election.

Cruz is one of the "great heroes of our time"?  For what?

Didn't you hear? He's a Titan of the Constitution!

I did hear that, yes. Someone familiar may have been the one who said that, in fact.

Still curious as to why you think he's one of the great heroes of our time (specifics, please).

[Politician]

Who remembers back in 2010 when Republicans were pretending that they could win CA-GOV and CA-SEN?

How did that work out for them?

McCain did worse than Goldwater for CA, meanwhile Hillary gave the best record since 1996 for TX. There's a bit of a difference.

I would agree that TX-SEN 2018 will be closer than CA-GOV and CA-SEN 2010, but that doesn't mean O'Rourke is going to win it.

Even light blue states like CO held firm against the 2010 Red Wave.

Texas is at least as red as CO was blue.

Bennet would have lost had Jane Nortan been nominated.

[kyc0705]

I know the whole tweet's bad, but I'm really irked by how much of a reach that Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon reference is. He just wanted to throw that in there, and it's so low-effort and pandering. So it fits him perfectly is what I'm saying:
https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1032614754668486656

It's such a forced attempt at having a sense of humor.

SOMEBODY MAKE IT STOP
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034843827088093184

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Rad", seriously? Why not "tubular" while you're at it. Hell, TUBULAR TED would be a neat nickname to stay """hip""" with the """kids""".

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know the whole tweet's bad, but I'm really irked by how much of a reach that Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon reference is. He just wanted to throw that in there, and it's so low-effort and pandering. So it fits him perfectly is what I'm saying:
https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1032614754668486656

It's such a forced attempt at having a sense of humor.

SOMEBODY MAKE IT STOP
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034843827088093184

Cruz's "joke" was even better than that! The Texas GOP would lose every election for that in a just world!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Texas GOP is just making this entire situation worse for them.

[Mr. Smith]

In fairness, GA-06 was won last year despite the Star Wars f&*kery.

But yeah, I haven't seen any Cruz material and quite literally just went past 12 BETO yard signs. Trump won here by 23 and Cruz won by 40 back in 2012.

[NOVA Green]

Well I can tell you I've seen quite a few BETO signs and not one for Cruz...I'm in the heart of Aggieland.

Although obviously Yard Signs are not a scientific polling method, it is interesting considering that College Station, Texas went 55-35 Trump in 2016, which would place it as more Republican than , Waco (Baylor University 47*-47 HRC), but much less so than Lubbock, Texas (Texas Tech 63-31 Trump), and then obviously much more so than most the other major University areas clustered in the largest Cities of Texas, which really dilutes the impact of even large College/University populations....

Obviously College precincts didn't always vote the same way as the Cities in which the major Colleges and Universities are located, but still it is telling that there aren't Ted Cruz signs / bumper stickers floating around in "Aggie Land".

Here's a link to a project that I started in 9/17-12/17 and made some serious headway on in terms of voting patterns in Division I-A College Football Cities, for anyone interested--- but yeah Texas A&M actually does appear to be one of the most Republican of all of the major College Football campus towns within the Great State of Texas....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5854458#msg5854458

I should note that we had some major contributions to the project from the following Atlas posters, as well as crowd-sourced contributors from many not mentioned:

nclib
reagente
Extreme Conservative

*** IF *** Beto is winning the Texas A&M Vote "Deep in the Heart of Republican Texas", then obviously for Republicans "Houston we have a Problem". IF Texas A&M falls, places like Texas Tech and TCU aren't far behind....

It's still an extremely thin needle for Beto to thread to make this coalition work, with all odds against the campaign:

1.) Rural Anglo Texas--- Still overwhelmingly 'Pub, despite deep Ancestral Dem roots in places from EastTex to WestTex to the Hill Country.

Still, polls and data we have seen thus far appear to indicate that Beto will likely significantly over-perform traditional Dem Margins in these communities.

600 People show up in Kerrville, 800 in Abilene (), etc....

2.) College enthusiasm high

3.) Middle / Upper Middle-Class Anglo massive swings '12 > '16 in the 'Burbs of H-Town, DFW, Austin, SA, etc....

4.) Turnout and swings among Middle-Class Latinos---

Traditionally in Tejas a major swing-voting population, especially in recent non-presidential election years. Tend to vote with much higher rates than working-class Latinos, and tend to be more receptive to Republican messaging....

5.) AA turnout in the Cities of Texas---

Tend to vote at much higher levels than Latinos, but again turnout tends to be higher in PRES election years than off-year / Mid-Term levels (As is generally the case with Working-Class voters of all races/ethnic backgrounds in most parts of the US)

6.) Working-Class Latino Turnout levels--- ?

Giant wild-card as always.... typically in Texas tend to break something like 80-20 DEM at the PRES level, but even in PRES YRS voter turnout tends to be much lower than various other demographic formations.... much, much lower in off-years.

Obviously there are a huge chunk of votes left on the table here, in arguably the most Democratic constituency in Texas, other than African-American voters....

I'm smelling something different in the air, regardless of whomever actually wins the election in November, and although jacking up the DEM numbers among Texas Anglos definitely won't hurt in a GE, I'm still not yet convinced that the BETO campaign has really yet been able to expand messaging and name recognition among Texas low-propensity voters that tend to skew heavily DEM at the PRES level....

Maybe it's time to unleash the "Air War" after Labor Day Weekend?

[Shadows]

[Nathan Towne]

Ted Cruz is going to win re-election. We are not going to lose this seat. Senator Cruz is one of the great heroes of our time and he is not going to lose to someone like Beto O'Rourke. He is too energized and too committed to lose. When it is all said and done, Senator Cruz will win this election.

Cruz is one of the "great heroes of our time"?  For what?

Didn't you hear? He's a Titan of the Constitution!

I did hear that, yes. Someone familiar may have been the one who said that, in fact.

Still curious as to why you think he's one of the great heroes of our time (specifics, please).

Because Senator Cruz is one of a group of Senators who are truly willing to put their neck on the line for basic constitutional principles of natural rights, a government of enumerated power, separation of powers, Federalism, the basic freedom of individuals to make decisions, via markets, regarding their own lives, for religious freedom, freedom of choice, personal responsibility, opposition to shameless systems of wealth and income transfer, e.t.c. and he votes in that manner, even when it means that it will leave himself more susceptible to cheap political attacks. With that said, I do think that an argument can be made that he has become somewhat more willing to authorize domestic discretionary spending, including patently unconstitutional spending, over the course of his term in Congress, which does concern me, but he is still remains one of a select group of Senators who consistently puts his future political prospects in jeopardy by doing what is right and what is constitutional rather than what is politically expedient. For that, I have a tremendous admiration and respect for him.

[Nathan Towne]

In fairness, GA-06 was won last year despite the Star Wars f&*kery.

But yeah, I haven't seen any Cruz material and quite literally just went past 12 BETO yard signs. Trump won here by 23 and Cruz won by 40 back in 2012.

This is a legitimate challenge coming from O'Rourke which the Cruz campaign is taking seriously. Do not get me wrong, it is not a serious challenge when it comes to the issues, but when it comes to the purely political nature of the threat that he poses, it is a serious challenge which is being combated directly by a campaign that does not take a victory for granted, by any means. In the end though, I am confident (and committed to doing what I can to assist in making sure) that Senator Cruz wins this race.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Beto O’Rourke yard signs are everywhere. Where are Ted Cruz’s?

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Basically, the reason why Cruz does not have lots of signs is that past studies have shown that yard signs are not effective.

Cruz is running a smart campaign based on evidence. Still, if yard signs are ever effective, I would guess that they are most effective in this sort of situation - where a state has traditionally not backed a given party, and overwhelmingly has traditionally backed another party, yard signs could have that psychological effect of "making voters think it is OK/socially acceptable to vote for a Democrat." One would think that if there is any such effect, it would be strongest when it is left entirely un-countered.

The article goes on to note that based on the same research showing that yard signs are ineffective, Rick Perry did not use them against Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 TX-GOV primary, and Perry nonetheless won decisively. However, in that case Perry was already known, and voters in TX (especially Republican primary voters) obviously already thought it was socially acceptable to support him.

Whereas, at least there is some possibility that maybe it helps Beto get over that hurdle, and also it can't hurt his name recognition.

[new_patomic]

Beto O’Rourke yard signs are everywhere. Where are Ted Cruz’s?

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Basically, the reason why Cruz does not have lots of signs is that past studies have shown that yard signs are not effective.

Cruz is running a smart campaign based on evidence. Still, if yard signs are ever effective, I would guess that they are most effective in this sort of situation - where a state has traditionally not backed a given party, and overwhelmingly has traditionally backed another party, yard signs could have that psychological effect of "making voters think it is OK/socially acceptable to vote for a Democrat." One would think that if there is any such effect, it would be strongest when it is left entirely un-countered.

The article goes on to note that based on the same research showing that yard signs are ineffective, Rick Perry did not use them against Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 TX-GOV primary, and Perry nonetheless won decisively. However, in that case Perry was already known, and voters in TX (especially Republican primary voters) obviously already thought it was socially acceptable to support him.

Whereas, at least there is some possibility that maybe it helps Beto get over that hurdle, and also it can't hurt his name recognition.

This is actually rather similar to what Doug Jones did in Alabama.

How yard signs helped beat Roy Moore, and could elect red-state Dems

Not that, as the article makes clear, victory comes down to yard signs. But in these places where Democrats haven't been competitive in decades legitimizing the Democrat as a viable choice becomes important.

[junior chįmp]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

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So Ted is letting Beto dominate in yard sales and tv ads?

[Zaybay]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

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Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

[Nathan Towne]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

[Zaybay]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

[Nathan Towne]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

[Zaybay]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

"Ted Cruz divulges that he hasn't raised enough money to compete with Beto O'Rourke's TV ads

During a Republican gathering in North Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) admitted that he hasn’t raised enough money to compete with Beto O’Rourke’s TV ads."

Those numbers you quoted may sound impressive on paper, but TX is an expensive state, and Cruz is really burning through it.

[Nathan Towne]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

"Ted Cruz divulges that he hasn't raised enough money to compete with Beto O'Rourke's TV ads

During a Republican gathering in North Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) admitted that he hasn’t raised enough money to compete with Beto O’Rourke’s TV ads."

Those numbers you quoted may sound impressive on paper, but TX is an expensive state, and Cruz is really burning through it.

Yes, he said that he is being out raised by his opponent right now and that his campaign needs to be careful to conserve it's money. He didn't say that he has spent everything that he has raised already.

Yes, this is going to be an extremely expensive race. It very well may end up being the most expensive race of this election cycle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

"Ted Cruz divulges that he hasn't raised enough money to compete with Beto O'Rourke's TV ads

During a Republican gathering in North Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) admitted that he hasn’t raised enough money to compete with Beto O’Rourke’s TV ads."

Those numbers you quoted may sound impressive on paper, but TX is an expensive state, and Cruz is really burning through it.

Yes, he said that he is being out raised by his opponent right now and that his campaign needs to be careful to conserve it's money. He didn't say that he has spent everything that he has raised already.

Yes, this is going to be an extremely expensive race. It very well may end up being the most expensive race of this election cycle.

Toss-up between this and Florida, I think.

[Nathan Towne]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

"Ted Cruz divulges that he hasn't raised enough money to compete with Beto O'Rourke's TV ads

During a Republican gathering in North Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) admitted that he hasn’t raised enough money to compete with Beto O’Rourke’s TV ads."

Those numbers you quoted may sound impressive on paper, but TX is an expensive state, and Cruz is really burning through it.

Yes, he said that he is being out raised by his opponent right now and that his campaign needs to be careful to conserve it's money. He didn't say that he has spent everything that he has raised already.

Yes, this is going to be an extremely expensive race. It very well may end up being the most expensive race of this election cycle.

Toss-up between this and Florida, I think.

Yes, both are going to end up being extremely expensive. Interestingly, the Senate race here in Massachusetts has had a tremendous amount of money come into it, as well. A very substantial portion of it though has come pouring into the Warren campaign from all of her fans.

[NOVA Green]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?