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November 26, 2020, 02:39:00 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  latest Betfair odds
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Author Topic: latest Betfair odds  (Read 44946 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #550 on: March 10, 2020, 11:07:10 PM »

Update: Biden over 90, while Clinton is in 2nd, and Sanders is tied for 3rd with Michelle Obama.  Obama’s also trading at a higher price in the Dem. market than Trump is in the GOP market.

Democrats
Biden 94.1
Clinton 2.7
Sanders 1.4
M. Obama 1.4

Republicans
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.7
Haley 2.2
Kasich 1.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.3
Biden 2.4

Republicans
Trump 69.9
Cruz 15.2
Kasich 6.9
Rubio 4.0
Ryan 1.5
Romney 1.3
Bush 0.4
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #551 on: March 12, 2020, 11:52:16 PM »

The two parties are now tied on “winning party”, though both paradoxically trading above 50.  I guess it’s just low volume, because logically they shouldn’t add up to over 100.  I also list the VP market, though it’s kind of a joke that they don’t even have contracts yet on some of the more obvious options, like CCM and Duckworth.

Democrats
Biden 90.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 2.4
M. Obama 1.4

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 5.5

Democratic VP nominee
Harris 33.5
Klobuchar 17.2
Abrams 16.1
Clinton 8.5
Patrick 3.8
Warren 3.7
Buttigieg 3.2
M. Obama 3.2
Whitmer 2.3
Castro 2.2
Booker 1.4

Winning Party
Democrats 51.2
Republican 51.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 10.2
Biden 1.7

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 8.7
Rubio 3.8
Ryan 1.2
Romney 0.8
Bush 0.4
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #552 on: March 13, 2020, 09:37:51 AM »

Dems take the lead in winning party:

Democrats 51.2
Republicans 50.0
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #553 on: March 13, 2020, 10:41:49 AM »

Dems take the lead in winning party:

Democrats 51.2
Republicans 50.0


That's 101.2% combined?


Hilarious even HRC is now above Sanders.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #554 on: March 15, 2020, 10:53:26 AM »

Last update before the debate has Clinton gaining.  Maybe people expect the coronavirus to take out both Biden and Sanders?

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 6.0
Sanders 3.7

Republicans
Trump 89.5
Pence 5.1
Haley 2.9
Rubio 1.7

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.0
Biden 2.6

Republicans
Trump 71.9
Cruz 14.5
Kasich 9.5
Rubio 2.8
Ryan 1.1
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #555 on: March 15, 2020, 10:11:48 PM »

Post-debate update: Sanders drops a bit, and Pence gains some more, with Trump again lower to win the GOP nomination than Biden is to win the Dem. nomination.

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 5.5
Sanders 2.6
M. Obama 1.4
Gabbard 0.4
Harris 0.4

Republicans
Trump 87.5
Pence 6.8
Haley 3.4
Rubio 1.4

Winning Party
Democrats 52.6
Republican 48.8
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #556 on: March 17, 2020, 10:30:16 PM »

Post-St. Patrick’s Tuesday update: Sanders down to 4th place for the Dem. nomination:

Democrats
Biden 92.3
Clinton 4.0
M. Obama 1.4
Sanders 1.1
Harris 0.5
Klobuchar 0.3

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 5.1
Haley 3.0

Four years ago at this point:


Democrats
Clinton 93.5
Sanders 5.3
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 74.1
Cruz 11.9
Kasich 9.1
Ryan 3.4
Bush 1.1
Romney 0.8
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #557 on: March 21, 2020, 04:09:28 PM »

Democrats
Biden 90.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 1.9
M. Obama 1.6
Harris 0.5
Warren 0.4
Klobuchar 0.3

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 3.2
Haley 1.7
Cotton 1.6

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 35.2
Klobuchar 23.2
Abrams 19.6
Warren 7.0
Demings 4.5
Cortez Masto 3.8
M. Obama 3.4
Whitmer 3.2

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.5
Biden 2.4

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 6.5
Ryan 1.9
Romney 1.2
Bush 0.9
Rubio 0.2
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #558 on: March 24, 2020, 11:33:37 PM »

Cuomo up to 1.4 to win the Dem. presidential nomination…

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 2.2
M. Obama 1.6
Cuomo 1.4
Warren 0.8
Harris 0.6
Klobuchar 0.4

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 5.8

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 35.5
Klobuchar 21.3
Abrams 20.1
Warren 8.1
Baldwin 5.1
Demings 4.3
Whitmer 3.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 7.2
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 73.5
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 4.3
Ryan 2.1
Bush 1.5
Romney 0.8
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #559 on: March 25, 2020, 05:49:00 AM »

Cuomo up to 1.4 to win the Dem. presidential nomination…

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 2.2
M. Obama 1.6
Cuomo 1.4
Warren 0.8
Harris 0.6
Klobuchar 0.4

It, for once, makes sense to me. Much more so than Clinton or Michelle. If Biden steps down due to health related issues, Cuomo as Compromise Candidate doesn't seem that stretched IMO.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #560 on: March 25, 2020, 05:57:30 AM »

Cuomo up to 1.4 to win the Dem. presidential nomination…

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 2.2
M. Obama 1.6
Cuomo 1.4
Warren 0.8
Harris 0.6
Klobuchar 0.4

It, for once, makes sense to me. Much more so than Clinton or Michelle. If Biden steps down due to health related issues, Cuomo as Compromise Candidate doesn't seem that stretched IMO.

There's no reason Biden would step down, as there are no health issues. Stop.
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #561 on: March 25, 2020, 07:15:00 AM »

Cuomo up to 1.4 to win the Dem. presidential nomination…

Democrats
Biden 88.9
Clinton 3.8
Sanders 2.2
M. Obama 1.6
Cuomo 1.4
Warren 0.8
Harris 0.6
Klobuchar 0.4

It, for once, makes sense to me. Much more so than Clinton or Michelle. If Biden steps down due to health related issues, Cuomo as Compromise Candidate doesn't seem that stretched IMO.

There's no reason Biden would step down, as there are no health issues. Stop.

LOL. Calm down, man. You don't have a health issue, until you get one. It's how it works, you know. Why do you think Biden and Trump have just 80-90% chance to become the nominees of their respective parties? Well, one of the reasons is that when you are that old, you can drop dead anytime, esp with Corona epidemic. You're not one of these Corona-Deniers, are you?


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #562 on: March 26, 2020, 07:00:56 PM »

Cuomo up to third place to win the Dem. nomination….

Democrats
Biden 85.7
Clinton 3.8
Cuomo 3.3
Sanders 2.9
M. Obama 1.4
Warren 0.6
Klobuchar 0.6
Harris 0.5

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 4.3
Cotton 3.4

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 34.5
Klobuchar 20.1
Abrams 15.4
Cortez Masto 13.8
Warren 6.0
Demings 4.5
Whitmer 4.5

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 91.7
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.8

Republicans
Trump 71.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 6.2
Ryan 2.8
Bush 0.6
Romney 0.4
Walker 0.3
Perry 0.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3243116#msg3243116

Quote
Romney 92.5
Santorum 1.7
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Palin 0.5
Christie 0.4

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1505062#msg1505062

Quote
Democratic nomination
Obama 80.1
Clinton 18.1
Gore 4.0
Edwards 0.2

Republican nomination
McCain 95.0
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.1
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #563 on: March 26, 2020, 07:05:22 PM »

I think it's down to two candidates now, Sally Yates and Harris as the Veep candidates.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #564 on: March 28, 2020, 08:04:47 PM »

Cuomo now up to 2nd place for the Dem. nomination.

Democrats
Biden 83.3
Cuomo 5.5
Clinton 3.2
Sanders 3.0
M. Obama 1.3
Harris 0.8
Warren 0.7
Klobuchar 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 5.3
Haley 3.6

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 32.4
Klobuchar 22.6
Abrams 14.9
Cortez Masto 8.4
Whitmer 6.8
Warren 6.4
Demings 4.0
Clinton 3.6

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 9.5
Biden 1.8

Republicans
Trump 71.4
Cruz 13.1
Kasich 6.4
Ryan 2.4
Bush 0.7
Romney 0.4
Perry 0.2
Walker 0.2
Rubio 0.2
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #565 on: April 03, 2020, 11:19:50 AM »

Whitmer now up to 3rd place in the VP market...

Democrats
Biden 86.4
Cuomo 3.8
Sanders 3.0
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 1.4
Harris 0.6
Klobuchar 0.4
Warren 0.4
Bloomberg 0.3

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 4.0
Haley 2.2
Rubio 1.6

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 31.0
Klobuchar 18.9
Whitmer 13.1
Abrams 12.8
Cortez Masto 6.5
Duckworth 4.2
Warren 4.2
Demings 3.8
M. Obama 3.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 11.9

Republicans
Trump 52.4
Cruz 26.0
Kasich 11.1
Ryan 5.3
Romney 1.1
Rubio 0.8
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #566 on: April 03, 2020, 11:26:15 AM »

Still think Harris wants a commuters job overseas to Europe exposed to coronavirus, she didnt come out and say that on Shapton, but she made hints of that. She says she doesnt want her family to move out of SF and DC, which is a indirect hint to not traveling abroad. Whitmer isnt leaving MI either. Klobuchar likes Biden and wouldn't mind being Veep
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #567 on: April 08, 2020, 11:53:08 AM »

Post-Sanders dropout update...

Democrats
Biden 91.7
Clinton 2.7
Cuomo 2.2
M. Obama 1.1
Harris 0.6
Warren 0.5
Bloomberg 0.3
Klobuchar 0.3
Newsom 0.3

Republicans
Trump 93.3
Pence 3.8
Haley 1.4
Romney 0.6
Cruz 0.5

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 36.1
Whitmer 16.8
Abrams 13.4
Klobuchar 12.4
Warren 9.5
Cortez Masto 4.8
Demings 3.8

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 87.0
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Trump 52.1
Cruz 31.0
Kasich 7.5
Ryan 4.5
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #568 on: April 11, 2020, 12:04:35 AM »

Big surge for Harris, who’s almost up to 50 for the VP nomination:

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 48.0
Whitmer 13.1
Klobuchar 12.4
Abrams 6.2
M. Obama 6.2
Warren 5.7
Cortez Masto 5.1
Demings 3.2
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #569 on: April 19, 2020, 06:19:47 PM »

Harris-mania has subsided a little, but she's still well ahead of everyone else:

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 35.5
Klobuchar 18.9
Warren 13.4
Whitmer 10.5
Abrams 8.1
M. Obama 6.5
Cortez Masto 3.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 5.4
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 65.4
Cruz 27.3
Kasich 5.7
Ryan 1.4

Dem. VP
Castro 29.6
Warren 17.4
Kaine 14.9
Perez 14.9
Booker 13.4

GOP VP
Kasich 26.0
Martinez 11.6
Cruz 11.4
Rubio 10.5
Haley 8.8
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Blue3
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« Reply #570 on: April 19, 2020, 07:42:13 PM »

Whatever happened to Susana Martinez?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #571 on: April 19, 2020, 07:57:17 PM »

Whatever happened to Susana Martinez?

For what position?  She's a Republican.
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Blue3
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« Reply #572 on: April 19, 2020, 08:22:11 PM »

Whatever happened to Susana Martinez?

For what position?  She's a Republican.
Yes... I'm looking at her odds for the GOP VP 4 years ago.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #573 on: April 19, 2020, 08:49:18 PM »

Whatever happened to Susana Martinez?

This was just before her share price for VP tanked because of this:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=234526.msg5034144#msg5034144

Quote
Don’t expect Susana Martinez to end up on Trump’s VP short list….and probably not Nikki Haley either:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/19/new-mexico-gov-susana-martinez-makes-sharp-critique-of-trump-at-rga-donor-event/

Quote
New Mexico’s governor, Susana Martinez, chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association, did not mince words: She told the crowd of about 60 wealthy GOP backers that, as a Latina, she was offended by Trump’s language about immigrants. Noting her years working as a prosecutor on the Mexican border and now as a border-state governor, Martinez said Trump’s plan to build a wall and force Mexico to pay for it was unrealistic and irresponsible, according to multiple people in attendance.

The comments were a remarkably strong rebuke of the GOP front-runner by Martinez, who has been publicly circumspect about his candidacy since the GOP contest began. She spoke out after the other female governor in the room, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, also criticized Trump, expressing concern that his rhetoric would taint the Republican brand. Haley said it was imperative that the GOP be inclusive to people from all backgrounds, according to attendees.

Incidentally, all five of those top five people for GOP VP four years ago ended up taking themselves out of the running for VP (not that Martinez would have been picked after those comments).  Trump could only manage to get a B-list of people to agree to be vetted (e.g., Pence, Christie, Gingrich, Sessions, etc.).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #574 on: April 25, 2020, 04:01:32 PM »

Warren gains, as Whitmer loses altitude and is now tied for 6th with CCM.  Meanwhile, someone is hedging on the “I will have a female running mate” pledge, and buying shares of Sherrod Brown for veep.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 32.4
Klobuchar 18.9
Warren 18.0
Abrams 7.0
M. Obama 6.4
Cortez Masto 6.0
Whitmer 6.0
Brown 2.9
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