latest Betfair odds

[dax00]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

What is this nonsense

For the DNC, I factored in that the primaries are basically almost out of pro-Hillary states, and the chance that she may still be indicted.

[Lyin' Steve]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

What is this nonsense

For the DNC, I factored in that the primaries are basically almost out of pro-Hillary states, and the chance that she may still be indicted.

Is this just your numbers?
I see you're new here, that's not what this thread is for.  This is for updates on an odds tracker from betfair.com.
I made a thread just yesterday inviting people to post their personal odds.

[Eraserhead]

Any numbers for the 3/15 states?

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders breaks 10 again…

Up: Kasich
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 10.2
Biden 1.7

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 8.7
Rubio 3.8
Ryan 1.2
Romney 0.8
Bush 0.4

Any numbers for the 3/15 states?

As is typical for the individual state markets, the trading volume is tiny, so it probably doesn’t mean anything.  But OK, here are some of the remotely competitive ones…

Ohio Dems
Clinton 76.3
Sanders 37.0

Florida GOP
Trump 80.0
Rubio 20.0

Missouri GOP
Cruz 57.5
Trump 49.0

Ohio GOP
Kasich 72.5
Trump 29.4

[The Other Castro]

Here's the PredictIt Odds for the 3/15 states, with Buy/Sell numbers averaged out:

Florida Dems
Clinton 89.5
Sanders 11.5

Florida GOP
Trump 85.5
Rubio 14.5

Illinois Dems
Clinton 75.5
Sanders 26.0

Illinois GOP
Trump 82.5
Cruz 13.5
Kasich 6.5

Missouri Dems
Sanders 50.5
Clinton 49.5

Missouri GOP
Trump 55.5
Cruz 44.5

North Carolina Dems
Clinton 90.5
Sanders 10.0

North Carolina GOP
Trump 85.0
Cruz 15.5

Ohio Dems
Clinton 58.5
Sanders 41.5

Ohio GOP
Kasich 61.0
Trump 42.0

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz has a bit of a rebound…

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.7
Biden 2.9

Republicans
Trump 70.4
Cruz 15.4
Kasich 8.4
Rubio 3.6
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Bush 0.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3232224#msg3232224

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at around this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1495254#msg1495254

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[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Ides of March update:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.0
Biden 2.6

Republicans
Trump 71.9
Cruz 14.5
Kasich 9.5
Rubio 2.8
Ryan 1.1

[Sir Mohamed]

Now I'm curious how it changed since the big five.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Ides of March update…

Up: Clinton, Trump
Down: Sanders, Cruz, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.0
Biden 2.8

Republicans
Trump 74.6
Cruz 12.5
Kasich 9.1
Ryan 1.9
Bush 0.8
Romney 0.7
Rubio 0.3

[Phony Moderate]

FFS, no way should Jeb! be ahead of Romney; the latter is a trillion times more likely to be selected if it comes down to a brokered convention.

[°Leprechaun]

so basically it's Clinton or Trump

[Mr. Morden]

Paul Ryan share price has surged all the way up to 3.4…which is triple the price he had two days ago.

Democrats
Clinton 93.5
Sanders 5.3
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 74.1
Cruz 11.9
Kasich 9.1
Ryan 3.4
Bush 1.1
Romney 0.8

[Lumine]

Seriously, why on earth is Jeb higher than Romney?

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz rebounds a little, but Trump, Kasich, and Ryan are all down compared to the last update.  It’s like the market thinks there might be a contested convention, but has no idea how to handicap it.  The top five in the GOP market add up to less than 95 right now, which I guess means they think someone completely out of left field might win it?

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.5
Biden 2.4

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 6.5
Ryan 1.9
Romney 1.2
Bush 0.9
Rubio 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cruz rebounds a little, but Trump, Kasich, and Ryan are all down compared to the last update.  It’s like the market thinks there might be a contested convention, but has no idea how to handicap it.  The top five in the GOP market add up to less than 95 right now, which I guess means they think someone completely out of left field might win it?

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.5
Biden 2.4

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 6.5
Ryan 1.9
Romney 1.2
Bush 0.9
Rubio 0.2

On the Democratic side, it adds up to 101.5. Maybe there will be two people nominated by rival conventions like in 1860?

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Rocky Mountain Tuesday update…

Up: Trump, Cruz
Down: Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 7.2
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 73.5
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 4.3
Ryan 2.1
Bush 1.5
Romney 0.8

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 20.4
Sanders 4.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 1.6

[Lyin' Steve]

Post-Rocky Mountain Tuesday update…

Up: Trump, Cruz
Down: Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 7.2
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 73.5
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 4.3
Ryan 2.1
Bush 1.5
Romney 0.8

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 20.4
Sanders 4.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 1.6

Clinton individual seems about right, god damn.  Really puts the whole race in perspective.

[Matty]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

[Holmes]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

[Matty]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

yea but the problem is that even if the #nevertrump movement can get some "surprise" wins in some of these states, california will still be kingmaker. I imagine these odds are almost completely tied to CA polling trends at this point.

[Ronnie]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

I don't understand the rationale for thinking Romney or Ryan would manage to get the nomination instead of Cruz in a scenario in which Trump fails to accumulate a delegate majority.  Trump and Cruz will amass the vast majority of delegates irrespective of what happens until the convention, and there's no way those delegates would accept nominating anyone other than one of the two leading candidates.

[Bigby]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

I don't understand the rationale for thinking Romney or Ryan would manage to get the nomination instead of Cruz in a scenario in which Trump fails to accumulate a delegate majority.  Trump and Cruz will amass the vast majority of delegates irrespective of what happens until the convention, and there's no way those delegates would accept nominating anyone other than one of the two leading candidates.

If nominating someone not currently running is a must at a brokered convention, and I honestly doubt that, then it would be someone that Trump and Cruz could generally agree to compromise on. You would more likely get someone like Jeff Sessions than Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney. Trump and Cruz are different flavors of insurgents, but with them as the two dominant forces of the GOP, nominating a generic Beltway man will just infuriate the GOP so harshly that 1968 will seem like a picnic.

[Fargobison]

Romney ended his chances of being the nominee the second he stepped out of the shadows and hit Trump.

Ryan could be a compromise choice, he has remained above the fray.

[Matty]

ryan would be a decent choice, but the american people have AWFUL views of congress right now and that could bring down his approvals.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ryan would be a decent choice, but the american people have AWFUL views of congress right now and that could bring down his approvals.

Americans have awful views of Congress, but not of individual Congressmen.